RADIO
Dynasty fantasy football managers are used to being engaged in their leagues all year long, but it can be easy to get tunnel vision when a player succeeded for you last year or is trending up the following season. The offseason is all about knowing who to buy and who to sell before "the results" play out, so analyzing what could lie ahead for each player is key.
There are glaring dynasty "sells" like aging and declining veterans, but most of the managers in your league won't be willing to trade for them. That said, this article won't focus on simply trying to pawn off "old" players in their late 20s or early 30s. Instead, we'll dive into potential overrated "sleepers" that managers could reasonably sell above their projected production. Using last year's stats, current perceived value, and future projections, we'll identify the top dynasty sells heading into 2024. You shouldn't simply throw these guys away for a lowball offer, but allow your league mates to overpay for guys who likely won't pay off at cost.
In redraft, targeting or fading players based on their ADP is key. In dynasty, the same principles can be used for perceived value. In other words -- even if you like a player, it might be worth capitalizing off their value spike and sending them packing to a new team. Without further ado, let's dive in.
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Nico Collins, Houston Texans
After two quiet seasons with Houston to begin his career, Nico Collins erupted as a breakout fantasy star in 2023. With C.J. Stroud running the show offensively, Collins caught 80 of his 109 targets for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns. Dynasty managers were likely ready to give up on him before the 2023 campaign, so he was a nice surprise for anyone who continued to hold on.
However, now is the time to sell him high if given the opportunity. While his overall production was strong, his advanced metrics via PlayerProfiler.com leave room for concern. Among all qualified wide receivers, Collins ranked 29th in target share (22.7%), 38th in air yards share (26.7%), and 50th in aDOT (10.9). His WR7 finish in fantasy points per game was driven by efficiency, which is not a bad sign on the surface.
However, his inability to command targets at a high rate is concerning, especially since he's set to compete with Stefon Diggs (one of the NFL's best target-earners) and a healthy Tank Dell. Speaking of Dell, the rookie averaged 0.5 more PPR fantasy points per game when the two were on the field together in Weeks 1-12, and he outpaced Collins by 5.5 fantasy points per game following the team's Week 8 bye through when he suffered a fractured fibula. Rookies often take their biggest leaps after the bye, and he significantly outproduced Collins during that short window before his injury.
While the target pecking order could play out multiple ways, there's a legitimate chance Collins is the new WR3 in Houston for at least one season. It's also worth noting Dalton Schultz is not a complete slouch at the tight-end spot, and Houston ranked just 15th in passing plays per game last year. It has an improved defense following a productive offseason, so that figure might come down. Overall, there's a great chance Collins sees at least a temporary drop in volume.
While discussing Nico Collins' contract extension and his emergence as a No. 1 wide receiver, CJ Stroud paused to say, "I think we have five No. 1 receivers. I’ve had that before in college, and now I have it again. It's going to be fun, man.”
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) June 4, 2024
Sure, he's still an attractive dynasty asset, but one letdown season can tank a player's dynasty value in the marketplace. Given Collins' WR18 cost in FFPC startup drafts, it's worth seeing if you can get a high first-round pick for him. He's a candidate to sell high now and then buy low after 2024.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Addison was a hot prospect coming out of Pittsburgh and USC, and his rookie season was mostly a success. He caught 70 of his 108 targets for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns en route to a WR23 finish in PPR formats. He appears to be a player on the rise, but he might be a trap in dynasty leagues.
For one, roughly 53% of his receiving yards and 70% of his receiving touchdowns came in just seven games with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Justin Jefferson missed three of those contests. Heading into 2024, Cousins is now an Atlanta Falcon, Addison will be catching passes from Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy, and Jefferson will be back from lingering hamstring issues. That's the summary of the potential regression ahead, but let's dive into his advanced metrics.
Jordan Addison with his 7th touchdown of the season!
📺: #MINvsGB on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Quwvdzpx7G pic.twitter.com/jcRlHwoI35— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023
Despite Jefferson missing seven of 17 games last year, Addison ranked 43rd in target share (18.1%), 63rd in target rate (18.6%), 35th in air yards share (27.5%), 53rd in yards per route run (1.57), 40th in yards per target (8.4), 39th in fantasy points per route run (0.38), and 30th in fantasy points per game (13.0) among all qualified wide receivers.
Ultimately, Addison's rookie campaign was built on the back of 10 touchdowns, and Minnesota should be expected to regress in total passing scores under its new quarterbacks. Poor (Darnold) or inexperienced (McCarthy) quarterbacks are likely to lock onto their superstar wideout (Jefferson) throughout the season, meaning there might not be a lot of meat on the bone for Addison.
The 22-year-old is being priced as the dynasty WR28 despite concerns for the season ahead. Addison is likely to bust in 2024 at cost, though he could rebound in 2025 if McCarthy proves to be a legitimate franchise quarterback.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
If you're in a best ball dynasty league, Williams might be worth holding onto. Otherwise, Williams presents a rare case when dynasty managers can sell a player who has not broken out through his first two NFL seasons for more than a third-round pick. Offseason buzz has suggested Williams is ready to make a significant impact, which means it's a great time to see if your league mates are buying the hype.
#Lions HC Dan Campbell on Jameson Williams:
“If you said, ‘give me one player that is the most improved [this offseason],’ Jamo would be that guy right now. He is a man on a mission, and I’m just gonna leave it at that.”
Campbell has a 90% reliability rating on depth chart and… pic.twitter.com/5R0EYPtfvM
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 23, 2024
Williams gets somewhat of a pass for his rookie season since he was coming off a torn ACL, but his Year 2 production in one of the best offenses in the NFL signals he is a clear sell.
After missing the first four games of his sophomore season due to a suspension, Williams scored more than 10.0 PPR fantasy points per game just twice in 12 contests. He finished behind Josh Reynolds (608) and Kalif Raymond (489) in total receiving yards with 354. Sure, Reynolds is gone to Denver, but if Reynolds was holding Williams back, that's not a great sign for his future outlook.
The former Alabama speedster has tremendous "real life" value as a field-stretcher and chunk-play specimen, but he has drawn three or fewer targets in 83% of his career games. His value to the Lions offense does not equal his fantasy value.
Detroit's offense should remain a high-powered attack, which is the only reason for optimism surrounding Williams' fantasy stock. Don't trade him away for "nothing," but let a league mate overpay if they get the itch to acquire him.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White, a 2022 fourth-round pick, heads into his third NFL campaign as the projected starting running back following the departure of Josh Jacobs. This is great news for dynasty managers who spent third- or fourth-round picks on him in rookie drafts a few years ago. The running backs behind him on the depth chart aren't all that impressive, but is a White breakout season too good to be true?
Zamir White hits paydirt for #RaiderNation #LACvsLV on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/ga7O4RMwdt pic.twitter.com/IS3mppzXyP— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2023
Coincidently, White's new teammate Alexander Mattison was in the same situation last year. The Vikings released Dalvin Cook following a 1000-yard campaign, clearing the runway for "Mattison RB1 season" in 2023. That didn't work out how fantasy managers had hoped, and White could be on that path.
With Jacobs banged up for much of last season, White rushed 104 times for 451 yards and one touchdown. He saw at least 17 carries in his final four games and posted two games of at least 112 rushing yards. As Mattison did for Minnesota over the last few seasons, he provided strong production in the absence of the team's workhorse.
However, White's advanced numbers don't suggest he's ready to break out as a full-fledged workhorse back. Among qualified running backs, White ranked 28th in true yards per carry (4.1), 32nd in yards per touch (4.6), 55th in juke rate (8.4%), and 30th in yards created per touch (3.28). He'll likely need significant rushing volume to be anything more than a weekly fringe RB2, especially considering he only posted a 2.9% target share in college and has just 15 receptions to his name in the NFL.
The Raiders' receiving-back role will likely be outsourced to Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, or Dylan Laube. Additionally, it would be a surprise if the Las Vegas backfield is fed with targets considering the team has Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, and Michael Mayer -- all of whom are excellent in the short and intermediate areas of the field.
That said, it's tough to find a real path to upside for White. Pure early-down grinders only have a high ceiling if they are playing in elite offenses with a ton of touchdown upside (like David Montgomery), or if they are ultra-efficient (like Derrick Henry in his prime). The former Georgia Bulldog won't be either of those things with Gardner Minshew II or Aidan O'Connell leading the offense, so there's a low probability you will regret selling White.
Since he was a Day 3 selection, there's a great chance he won't keep a starting role beyond 2024 unless he has a monster season. For all the reasons mentioned above, bet against it.
