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If you play dynasty fantasy football, then you know the importance of a startup draft. If you nail the startup, you are set for a long time. If you screw it up, well, good luck to you the rest of the way. Therefore, knowing who to target and, more importantly, who to avoid is more crucial than ever.
So, how do you determine which players to fade in a dynasty startup draft? One way to do so is by analyzing average draft position (ADP). For our exercise, we will use dynasty startup ADP courtesy of Sleeper to determine which players you should fade.
Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Let’s discuss five players you should fade in dynasty startup drafts.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!*ADP data below is for single-quarterback leagues*
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions - Sleeper ADP: 15.9 Overall
LaPorta is coming off a fantastic rookie season that saw him finish as the TE1 in half- and full-PPR leagues.
Sam LaPorta 4th down touchdown!!!
(via NFL)pic.twitter.com/s9DMIasbcB
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 15, 2024
As a result, he is being selected as the TE1 in dynasty startup drafts. While that’s understandable, it might not be the best strategic move. Let’s compare some of LaPorta's 2023 advanced data (Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite) to a few tight ends going after him in drafts.
Sam LaPorta - Sleeper ADP: 15.9 Overall
Targets Per Route Run (TPRR): .26
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): 1.95
Target Share (TGT %): 19.5%
Trey McBride - Sleeper ADP: 36.7 Overall
TPRR: .27
YPRR: 2.15
TGT %: 18.7%
Mark Andrews - Sleeper ADP: 49th Overall
TPRR: .23
YPRR: 2.11
TGT %: 20.8%
This data shows there is not much difference between these three players, and it also suggests that McBride and Andrews might be better. Nonetheless, it confirms they all are equally talented and can easily return a TE1 finish if the cards fall right. If that’s the case, why pay a premium on LaPorta when you can find the same player later in drafts?
Overall, fading LaPorta has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with his cost. He is priced at his ceiling, and there are options later in startup drafts that give you equal production for a better price.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams - Sleeper ADP: 22.2 Overall
One of last season’s fantasy MVPs, Williams' value took a hit when the Rams selected Michigan back Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Corum was one of the most productive backs in college football and presents an immediate threat to Williams’ spot atop the depth chart.
.@RamsNFL @UMichFootball @blake_corum joins @Kyrenwilliams23 what a great 1-2 punch behind a vastly improved OL. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/2bWACCWCCe
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) April 27, 2024
Look, Williams had an incredible 2023. His 21.3 PPR points per game were second only to Christian McCaffrey. But the Rams had a front-row seat to Williams’ 2023 and still felt the need to draft Corum. GM Les Snead has admitted the team overworked Williams last year, and they see a lot of similarities between the two backs. It was also reported the Rams were looking to trade their third-round pick until they saw Corum falling to them. It sure sounds like the team has something planned for the rookie.
Williams is a good player, but the Rams' selection of Corum clouds his future. Some think Williams is now a huge bargain, but the reality is that there’s more uncertainty with this situation than some care to admit. It’s best to avoid Williams and wait to see how the upcoming season unfolds.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers - Sleeper ADP: 32nd Overall
While Jacobs enjoyed a career year in 2022, his 2023 season was a disappointment. He finished as the RB28 one year removed from an RB3 finish. Even more troubling were some of Jacobs’ advanced metrics. He finished 45th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), 41st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 81st in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). These are concerning marks. Outside of his 2022 season, Jacobs has never been a very efficient back.
The team also drafted MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was one of the best backs in the class on pure talent, but he has a major fumbling problem. The Packers have stated they see “shades of Aaron Jones” in Lloyd’s film. If that statement is true, it makes you wonder how Jacobs fits into the club’s future plans.
The Packers have an out in Jacobs’ contract after this year. It would only be a $9 million dead cap hit if they were to cut him. If he continues to struggle, Green Bay may move on from Jacobs following the season and turn things over to Lloyd. There’s just a little too much risk with Jacobs to justify his current price.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sleeper ADP: 37.7 Overall
White enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 en route to a PPR RB4 finish.
Rachaad White 31-Yard Touchdown!
pic.twitter.com/2QopotDLFW— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 10, 2023
While he produced for dynasty managers last year, things get concerning when we look under the hood. White has consistently graded poorly across numerous key metrics since entering the league.
Last year, among 49 rushers with at least 90 carries, White finished:
42nd in MTF/ATT
49th in RYOE
44th in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Rushing Grade
28th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
40th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Explosive Run Percentage (EXP RUN %)
Here is how White finished in these same metrics as a rookie in 2022 (among 48 rushers with 90+ carries):
46th in MTF/ATT
39th in RYOE
46th in PFF Rushing Grade
41st in Elusive Rating
38th in Exp Run %
All of this shows that White has been a below-average rusher at the NFL level. However, Tampa Bay’s running-back room is relatively weak behind White. The only addition the club made was selecting rookie back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of April’s draft, and we can’t say he’s a better player than White at this time.
While the situation currently looks good for White, things can change quickly. Few people thought Cam Akers and Ty Chandler would replace Alexander Mattison in Minnesota last year, but that’s exactly what happened when Mattison scuffled. If White continues to struggle as a rusher, we can’t rule out the team experimenting with other options.
He also enters his age-25 season as well as the third year of his rookie deal, and it’s unclear if the team would entertain an extension. Put it all together, and a fourth-round startup pick is a high price for an extremely inefficient back who depends on volume. Don’t be fooled into thinking this is some kind of discount. Look for cheaper running-back options later in your startup draft.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals - Sleeper ADP: 48th Overall
2023 was a tough season for Higgins. He battled injuries throughout the year and set career lows across the board. Despite the struggles, Higgins reminded managers what he’s capable of with a 5-140-1 performance in the fantasy semifinals against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
TEE HIGGINS BREAKS FREE.
TOUCHDOWN. 🐯 👷🏻#NFL #Bengals #Steelers #CINvsPITpic.twitter.com/FablRvXhxS— Sportskeeda Pro Football (@SKProFootball) December 23, 2023
He recently agreed to a new one-year contract with the Bengals. From there, his future is completely up in the air. Higgins expressed his interest in a long-term contract to stay in Cincinnati but no deal appears imminent. He could re-sign with the Bengals and play with Joe Burrow for the foreseeable future. He could walk after the season and wind up in a worse situation, or he could end up somewhere else as that team’s WR1.
These are all possible outcomes, but it’s impossible to say which will happen. Not exactly the ideal situation if you’re going to use a pick at the Round 4/5 turn on him. Until we have more clarity on his future, it’s best to avoid Higgins.
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