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The Carolina Panthers are looking to emerge from the basement of the NFL after finishing 2023 with an abysmal 2-15 record. The last-place campaign saw Carolina fire head coach Frank Reich and secure the rights to the No. 1 draft choice, but that selection already belonged to Chicago due to a previous trade.
Left without their top selection, Carolina entered this offseason with a variety of needs. One position they addressed was running back, where they made Texas' Jonathan Brooks the first player off the board at his position. As the Panthers look to improve on last season's record and help former No. 1 pick Bryce Young develop, they will presumably place a heavy emphasis on their rushing attack. It also helps that they hired Dave Canales as their new head coach; Canales extracted plenty of production out of Rachaad White as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offensive coordinator last year.
But what type of production can we expect? How will opportunities be split among members of the Carolina Panthers' backfield? Is Jonathan Brooks healthy and ready to produce or will Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders open 2024 as the primary options? Let's dive in and find out.
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Jonathon Brooks Fantasy Outlook
Brooks (knee) tore his ACL at Texas, and while that didn't stop Carolina from spending a high pick on him, he will be limited to open his NFL career. Brooks was placed on the PUP list and will miss the first four games of 2024. Such a setback gives Hubbard and Sanders a leg up on the lead-back competition, meaning Brooks will be working from behind as he gets healthy.
With that said, Brooks is the most talented of the three running backs. He is younger, more athletic, and more versatile. Even though he won't be Carolina's RB1 in Week 1, he should push for that title by midseason. Ultimately, as long as his recovery goes well, he'll be a very intriguing option in both redraft and dynasty leagues.
In particular, from a redraft perspective, Brooks is currently being selected as the 37th running back. He's not necessarily a steal, but it's not the worst idea to spend a 10th-round pick on someone who could become a firm RB2 option by the middle of the season.
Of course, talent and role won't matter if the Panthers' offense can't stay on the field. They ranked third to last in terms of PFF's "offensive strength" metric last year, and DraftKings has set Carolina's 2024 win total at 5.5 games, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. You hear all about how volume is king in fantasy football, and while that's true, so are scoring opportunities.
If Brooks has fewer chances to break off big plays or score touchdowns, his fantasy value will be limited. Between his lingering injury and the Panthers' unfavorable outlook, Brooks' ADP of RB37 is very fair.
Panthers HC Dave Canales on what RB Jonathon Brooks brings
focus on versatility to factor in the receiving game, on top of the obvious rushing skills pic.twitter.com/hr9Qge9Ob4
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) April 27, 2024
Chuba Hubbard Fantasy Outlook
Hubbard was effective in 2023, taking over the backfield when Sanders struggled mightily. He finished the campaign with 902 rushing and 233 receiving yards, both career highs. He also found the end zone five times. By the back half of the season, Hubbard had firmly found his way into low-end RB2 territory.
The Panthers' woeful record last season did impact Hubbard's volume on the ground, but he made up for it with his effectiveness in the receiving game. He ranked 14th among NFL running backs in routes run and fourth at the position with an 88.6 percent catch rate.
He also had a 23.8 percent dominator rating (20th among running backs), officially setting his breakout age at 24 years old. We should feel optimistic that he can be just as effective in his age-25 campaign.
The biggest question is whether Hubbard will see steady volume throughout the entire season. He should have an edge over Sanders early in the season, but as soon as Brooks is healthy, he'll make a heavy push for the job.
Therefore, Hubbard is a safe fantasy option for the first half of the season, but he'll probably be worth benching (or even dropping in shallower leagues) within a few weeks of Brooks' return.
With all of this in mind, his ADP of 129 (RB44) is very reasonable. He's being drafted at an appropriate price for someone who will deliver immediate production but might lose his job over the course of the season.
Chuba Hubbard played every snap with the 1st team in the final preseason game. He looked great against the Bills P-Squad for what that's worth..
Rookie Jonathan Brooks hasn't had a single practice with the team yet. He likely will not factor into the offense this season IMO.… pic.twitter.com/CzczuCnDY5
— Dr. Jamie Jakes (@jamjks) August 25, 2024
Miles Sanders Fantasy Outlook
It's time to be out on Sanders. He tallied just 586 scrimmage yards and one touchdown over 16 games last year, delivering the worst fantasy season of his entire career. Very early in the year, it became clear that he would not fend off Hubbard for long.
Sanders finished 2023 with 3.2 true yards per carry and just 0.52 points per opportunity. Both of those marks ranked outside the top 60 for running backs. He also had a woeful -42.9 expected points added (144th among running backs) and 19.5 best ball points added (57th among running backs).
If you thought Sanders competing with Hubbard was bad, there's now another name in the mix: Brooks. Sanders should drop to third on the depth chart when Brooks returns, and there's a chance he could even be released by the end of the year.
If there's a case to be made for Sanders, it's that he'll be Hubbard's handcuff for the first four-plus weeks of the season. In the event that Hubbard gets injured before Brooks can return, Sanders will take full control of the backfield.
Maybe the short-term handcuff factor is enough to justify taking a flier on Sanders at an ADP of 216 (RB63), but you can probably find more value in a younger player with a similar draft position. Carson Steele, Audric Estime, and even veteran Samaje Perine are all players being drafted after Sanders who make more sense as late-round fantasy picks.
You will never find a clip like this of miles sanders https://t.co/sn8hvUj8RN
— Cozy Bryant (@LowkeyCozy) August 29, 2024
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