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For most teams in the MLB, the "ace", or number one starting pitcher is clear. Many teams can also easily identify an SP2 and even a clear SP3. But which teams in the National League can tout an impressive starting pitcher rotation from top to bottom?
In the age of "the opener", SP5 is more dubious a role than ever. When not filled with a bullpen arm, this final spot in the rotation is often used as an audition spot for minor league arms who get a cup of coffee, for better or for worse. Even the SP4 slot can be a revolving door of names, but being able to trot out at least four reliable arms week in and week out, especially in the playoffs, can be the edge in getting to and winning a World Series.
Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) takes a look at the current starting pitcher rotation landscape in the National League to identify those squads that boast a reliable cast of starting pitchers in 2024. Barring injuries, these pitching staffs are likely to carry their teams into the 2024 playoffs, and perhaps all the way to the finish line.
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Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez, Taijuan Walker
Other Contributors: Spencer Turnbull
If the Dodgers' staff was fully healthy this year, this would be a much more neck-and-neck competition. With Shohei Ohtani relegated to hitting duties alone, the Dodger rotation cannot compete from top to bottom. The Phillies hold an eye-popping (and league-leading) 2.85 ERA across all of their starters in 2024.
Wheeler and Nola are the clear one-two punch, a nice mix of a free-agent signing and home-grown talent. However, the focus of the Phillies' success this year has been their "SP3" -- Ranger Suarez. Despite starting the year with a gap between his ERA and FIP, Suarez has bucked expectations (and "predictive" peripheral statistics), now boasting a 1.77 ERA and 2.72 xFIP. That ERA is good for second across all of the MLB, and the xFIP is good for a top-five ranking. At the age of 28, Suarez has found his recipe and is here to stay.
Ranger Suárez sits down his 10th Ranger, matching a career high. pic.twitter.com/QC5UoZB4Ve
— MLB (@MLB) May 22, 2024
As mentioned in the introduction, these rankings cannot stop at SP1, SP2, and SP3. The Phillies do not stop at SP3. Cristopher Sanchez is quietly boasting a 3.07 ERA backed by a strong 3.13 xFIP. Many teams would love to see that out of their SP1, let alone SP4. No other team can boast this much consistency in four consecutive games, making the Phillies one of the hardest teams to face across a three- or four-game series.
Cristopher Sánchez Strikes out Bobby Dalbec for his first K of the game on the changeup #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/P2mTqNVdit
— Lucasparmenter23 (@Lucasparmenter0) June 13, 2024
SP5 remains a bit of a question mark. Currently, the Phillies are favoring the 31-year-old Taijuan Walker for the fifth spot. Walker boasts an ugly 5.33 ERA. Waiting in the wings is Turnbull, sporting a strong 2.96 ERA between his time in the rotation and bullpen this year. Regardless, with only one question mark at the bottom of the rotation and a clear replacement in Turnbull if needed, the Phillies have the strongest starting rotation in the NL in 2024.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Rotation: Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, James Paxton
Other Contributors: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Emmet Sheehan
Even without the recent Yamamoto injury, the Phillies would likely still hold the top spot for starting rotation in the NL in 2024. With that injury, the list of pitchers above becomes much weaker. In a world where Kershaw and Yamamoto were fully healthy, this could be a closer race. That being said, even with all these injuries, the Dodgers hold a strong pitching staff in 2024.
Glasnow is clearly the ace with Ohtani limited to hitting duties in 2024. The righty holds a lean 2.79 FIP and 2.49 xFIP against an already strong 3.24 ERA. Couple that with a top-two 34.5% K% in 2024, and you have one of the best pitchers -- fantasy and real-life -- in the MLB in 2024. Yamamoto was achieving similar ratios and strikeout numbers before his triceps injury, but this is a major concern for a starting pitcher.
Buehler brings with him an aspirational 3.10 career ERA, but in his limited post-injury sample size in 2024, he holds an ugly 4.64 ERA. The small sample size makes prediction difficult -- will he end up closer to his 3.88 xFIP or 5.54 FIP? Neither one is great, but a 3.80 ERA would at least be serviceable if that is where he ends in 2024. Before Yamamoto's injury, Buehler as an SP3 looked great. Things look a lot less great if he is forced into an SP2 role. Perhaps even a partial return to form for Kershaw in a month or two could mitigate this?
Bobby Miller is exciting and current reports suggest a return to the Dodgers' rotation in the next week or two. He, like Kershaw, can be viewed quite divergently depending on whether he is an SP3 or SP4. Miller undoubtedly brings fantasy value and overall excitement with an eye-popping 36.0% K% in 2024, but it is impossible to draw predictions using his peripheral statistics with such a small MLB sample size in 2024. If Miller takes the next step, he could serve as a solid SP3. For the Dodgers to make a run for the best rotation in the NL, he likely needs to be the fourth-best pitcher on the Dodgers' staff.
This pitch by Bobby Miller was pure filth 🤮pic.twitter.com/22l7MlEjr5
— Baseball’s Greatest Moments (@BBGreatMoments) June 14, 2024
Then there is a bit of a cliff. James Paxton has been flat-out bad this year. Despite a middling 3.92 ERA, Paxton is due to get rocked on the basis of a 5.15 ERA and 5.43 xFIP. He holds an abysmal 13.8% K%. At best he should be a long reliever, and it may be time to call it a day altogether for The Big Maple. Can Gavin Stone meaningfully boost the rotation as an SP5? A 4.08 xFIP and 18.3% K% would be fine, not great, as an SP5 and certainly not any better while he remains the SP4.
Although buoyed by Glasnow's excellence, the Dodgers need some injured guys to return to form to maintain their performance. This seems likely, hence the second-place ranking, but a lot remains in flux for the hurlers in Chavez Ravine.
Atlanta Braves
Starting Rotation: Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach
Other Contributors: AJ Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder, Spencer Strider, Hurston Waldrep
The loss of Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. to injury in the same year was bad for baseball. NL East fans can take some solace in how much this helps the other teams (Phillies in particular) fight for a pennant, but most die-hard fans would prefer their team beat the best opponent they can to earn a trip to the playoffs.
Despite the loss of Strider, the Braves trot out an impressive starting rotation. Max Fried, and his beautiful fall-off-the-shelf curveball, leads the rotation amongst three guys who one could argue as the "ace" in the ATL. Fried is sporting an above-average 3.20 ERA seated against a 3.22 FIP. He is pitching well and projects to continue this success throughout 2024.
Max Fried, Gorgeous 78mph Curveball. 😍 pic.twitter.com/AuPD8Ac3wC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2024
Morton and Sale are both past their prime, but both continue to contribute in their late-career years. Even at age 40, Morton boasts a decent 3.91 ERA backed by a 3.84 xFIP. Additionally, he continues to contribute in the strikeout category with a solid 24.8% K%. Sale's statistics have been that of an ace -- a 2.98 ERA, 2.47 xFIP, and 30.7% K%. One has to wonder what the remainder of 2024 has in store for an arm with so much mileage, but so far Sale has made for a nice one-two punch with Fried.
Reynaldo Lopez has been a revelation since coming over from the White Sox. He holds an astounding 1.69 ERA. His best season-long ERA as a starting pitcher before this was 3.91 in 2018, along with a horrific 2019 in which his ERA was 5.38. Something is clicking for him in the Atlanta rotation, but he still should be no higher than an SP4 for staff aspiring to be the best in the NL.
Reynaldo López, 97mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/KkW9N3qHQM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 6, 2024
The drop is steep from there. Spencer Schwellenbach has done little to inspire confidence as a long-term solution for the Braves. Smith-Shawver had a few mediocre outings before succumbing to injury. Elder and Waldrep have done little more with their opportunities.
If Strider was healthy, that would leave Fried and Sale as SP2 and SP3. Morton would be arguably the best "SP4" in the MLB, and Lopez is similarly viewed in the SP5 conversation. Moving all of those guys up one spot, particularly Fried as an ace and the questions at SP5, the Braves still have a great rotation, just not the best one in the NL.
Honorable Mentions
Chicago Cubs
The easiest point of contention with this list would be swapping spots for the Braves and the Cubs. With a 3.48 ERA across all starting pitchers this year, the Cubs have somewhat quietly been trotting out a solid rotation despite being devoid of a clear ace. Even that is contentious -- is Shota Imanaga a clear-cut "ace"? His surface statistics clearly support that with an insane 1.89 ERA in 2024. There is no doubt he is doing something special, but where will he end up once more tape becomes available and hitters learn his tricks? His FIP sits at 2.76 but his xFIP sits at 3.46. He will certainly regress a bit, but if he moves toward the latter, he is closer to an SP2 than SP1.
Beyond that, injuries to Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks have seemingly thrust Kyle Hendricks (and his 8.20 ERA) back into the SP5 slot. Justin Steele would be better served as an SP3 but can be a solid SP2. Unfortunately, Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon do little to boost this rotation into greatness. This rotation deserves more recognition, but it is hard to justify it as a top-three rotation in 2024.
St. Louis Cardinals
Somewhere between three and five years ago, having all these names in one rotation would have really popped -- Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Steven Matz. Gray & Matz profiled similarly as "young guns" with energetic fastballs who had sky-high potential. In 2024, the Cardinals' starting pitchers hold a fine 4.16 ERA and an optimistic 3.81 xFIP.
Gray has amounted to a bit more than Matz since their time as prospects, but he has had his setbacks as well. Gibson and Lynn have embodied solid control for many years, but both are on the wrong side of the halfway point of their careers. Mikolas still holds value as a streaming arm but would look much better as an SP3 or SP4. Time has passed this rotation by, but they are certainly still above average in the NL in 2024.
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