Should I Stash Shane Baz In Redraft Leagues? Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook (Week 13)

After being selected in the first round of the 2017 MLB Draft, Shane Baz worked his way to the majors by 2021 and debuted there for the Tampa Bay Rays. Baz had a successful three-game audition he started three games and posted an ERA of 2.03 with 18 strikeouts in 13 1/3 IP. The arrow was pointing up until Tommy John surgery prematurely ended his 2022 campaign.

The righty has been rehabbing and working his way back after missing all of 2023, but has now made eight starts for Triple-A Durham and appears ready to return to the mound for the Rays.

So when will that happen and what should we expect from him once he does return? We'll dissect that below.

How High Is Shane Baz's Fantasy Potential?

Shane Baz is a former first-round draft pick, and his performance in the minors as well as limited major league results have done nothing to tarnish or lower expectations we had of him. Over the course of 68 minor league starts and 280 1/3 IP, Baz has tallied a 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 329 strikeouts. The punchouts equate to a 27.9% K% and 10.56 K/9. The 9.7% BB% could use some work, but is palatable given the high K-rate. HR/9 for his minor league career is 0.71, so that hasn't been an issue.

In the majors, he's been a bit more susceptible to the long ball, allowing eight of them in nine total starts and 40 1/3 IP (1.79 HR/9). That should become less of an issue with the more experience he gets, and the strikeouts have still been there, recording a 10.71 K/9 in the majors. The walks were less of an issue in the big leagues, posting a 7.2% BB% in his limited action.

When Might Shane Baz Get A Major-League Opportunity?

Baz has looked especially sharp over his last three starts in the minors, pitching 15 innings and allowing just two earned runs on 10 hits and five walks while striking out 22 batters. His last time out he was able to complete six innings, so getting him stretched out doesn't appear to be a limiting factor at this point. The 24-year-old is already on the 40-man roster, so there is nothing that needs to be done on that front in order to get him back with the Rays.

Shane Baz made another start in AAA today, tossing 6.0 IP with 8 K

This now marks a 2nd start in a row where Baz displayed consistency in his pitch shapes. He continues to work his way back to Tampa Bay and looks to be on the right track pic.twitter.com/XqaRIepV1p

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) June 15, 2024

For now, the Rays seem fairly set in the rotation with the returns of Zach Eflin and Taj Bradley off of the IL, although fifth-man Ryan Pepiot has been roughed up a bit in his last two turns through the rotation (albeit against two good offenses in Atlanta and Baltimore). Regardless of performance, the way 2024 seems to be going it is likely just a matter of time until there is an injury that will force the Rays to bring up Baz.

Whatever the catalyst, we should see Baz in Tampa Bay within the next couple of weeks. The righty is available in almost 60% of Yahoo leagues. Managers with a bench spot available should stash him in anticipation of his forthcoming return.

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