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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The early part of the MLB season has been good to me, so I'm looking to build off that momentum and hit the ground running as we progress into the 2024 campaign. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some really interesting matchups today. The pitching mix offers a deep selection of reliable aces and worthwhile midrange starters, which will certainly lead to some interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative with your picks today.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 6/16/2024 and the slate locking at 1:05 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corbin Burnes vs. Philadelphia Phillies ($9.5K DK, $10K FD)
It's splitting hairs to try differentiating Corbin Burnes from Dylan Cease and Zack Wheeler today. In theory, you can't go wrong because they are each established aces.
For my money, Burnes has the edge today based on price and consistency. Entering Sunday, Burnes has pitched seven innings deep in three consecutive outings, part of a nine-game streak of quality starts. It all amounts to another dominant campaign for the former Cy Young Award winner.
He sports an outstanding 2.80 xERA and 3.29 xFIP through 14 starts this season. Burnes' 24% strikeout rate is lower than we're accustomed to seeing from him, but a 33% chase rate and a 28.5% whiff rate suggest that number will improve as the season continues. In any event, he is shutting down opposing hitters in every other regard.
Similar to Cease and Wheeler, Burnes draws a tricky matchup today. The Philadelphia Phillies are scoring nearly 5.1 runs per game on the season. While they have been better against southpaws, their 2024 success includes a strong 107 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Still, the Phillies are not necessarily in their best form right now, missing Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto. They have also generated only a 94 wRC+ so far in June, which underscores why it may be an opportunistic spot to roster Burnes against them.
Zach Eflin vs. Atlanta Braves ($7.5K DK, $7.9K FD)
At first glance, rostering a pitcher against the Atlanta Braves feels ambitious. However, it's crucial to keep in mind that this is not the same Braves offense from 2023. They are missing Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II, and the names that are still around have been massively underwhelming this season. The Braves are scoring a middling 4.4 runs per game in 2024. That includes an unintimidating 99 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers with a generous 23.5% strikeout rate.
Zach Eflin has additionally underwhelmed in 2024, though there is reason to believe that better days are ahead. Through 12 starts, he carries a 4.05 ERA. That said, Eflin's 3.45 xERA and 3.77 xFIP suggest he's pitching better than the surface numbers tell us. The strikeout rate drop-off has been concerning, but injury has played a part, and Eflin is simply too cheap if he can resemble anything of the dominant pitcher he was in 2023. There are no clear-cut pitching options on this slate, so I'm inclined to roll the dice on Eflin's unrealized upside with an advantageous matchup.
Also Consider: Dylan Cease, Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, Paul Skenes (FD only), JP Sears
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— Jon Irvin (@jonjirvin) April 17, 2024
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Royce Lewis - 3B, MIN vs. JP Sears ($6.2K DK, $4K FD)
After injuring his right quad on Opening Day, Royce Lewis has absolutely hit the ground running since his return to action. In just 10 games played, Lewis has launched five home runs, posting a .382/.405/.882 slash line. The sample size is small enough to be skeptical, but it's nothing new for Lewis, who owns an incredible .957 OPS for his MLB career.
Royce Lewis is really good at this sport pic.twitter.com/kCx9um5Hvk
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 12, 2024
JP Sears isn't awful, but he is one of the better pitchers to attack on this slate. Through 14 starts, he sports a mediocre 4.20 xERA and a 4.81 xFIP. Sears has done a better job at limiting power this season, but the underlying numbers suggest he's due for more regression. That includes surrendering a .439 xSLG, a 40.8% hard-hit rate, and an 8.8% barrel rate.
Michael Busch - 1B/2B, CHC vs. Miles Mikolas ($4.3K DK, $2.7K FD)
Michael Busch's campaign has been up and down, but the advanced metrics still point toward success. He has crushed the ball to the tune of a .451 xSLG, 12.5% barrel rate, and 40.8% sweet-spot rate. Busch's 32.1% whiff rate has proven problematic, but that won't be much of an issue in this particular matchup.
Miles Mikolas is another mediocre arm worth attacking on this slate. Over 14 starts, he carries a weak 4.34 xERA. Those struggles include surrendering a .461 xSLG, a 41.7% hard-hit rate, and a .269 xBA. Most importantly for Busch, Mikolas has generated a nonexistent 16.7% whiff rate.
Jake Burger - 1B/3B, MIA vs. Mitchell Parker ($3.5K DK, $2.9K FD)
Jake Burger got off to an uncharacteristically cold start to begin the season, but he rebounded well. He has posted a .828 OPS so far in June, following a .500 mark in May. Burger is starting to resemble the prolific offensive producer we have seen in past seasons. Further, Burger is historically a southpaw killer, slugging .485 against left-handed pitchers in his career. Consider his current price tag a discount.
Mitchell Parker owns an impressive 3.21 ERA through his first 11 career starts. Still, he is a prime candidate for negative regression, as evidenced by his 4.11 xERA. Parker's concerning underlying numbers include a .445 xSLG, an 8.6% barrel rate, and a 41.2% hard-hit rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Christian Yelich - OF, MIL vs. Frankie Montas ($5.7K DK, $3.9K FD)
Christian Yelich is enjoying a fantastic 2024 season. He is slashing .329/.408/.509 with a 160 wRC+. The success includes a .294 xBA, .446 xSLG, 91.4 mph average exit velocity, and a 51.6% hard-hit rate. In addition to crushing the ball, Yelich is flashing his base-stealing ability, swiping 13 bags in 43 games played.
Frankie Montas' 2024 return to action has been underwhelming. He sports a 4.64 xERA and a 4.64 xFIP over 12 starts this season. At the core of his struggles are left-handed hitters. Lefties are slugging .482 against Montas this season, part of a .449 career mark.
Yordan Alvarez - OF, HOU vs. Kenta Maeda ($5.4K DK, $3.9K FD)
The Houston Astros look great all around today, and with Kyle Tucker still out, Yordan Alvarez stands out above the other bats. He is slashing .287/.360/.511 with 14 home runs and a 147 wRC+ for the season. That includes some tremendous batted-ball metrics, such as a .567 xSLG, 13.5% barrel rate, 93.3 mph average exit velocity, and a 47.3% hard-hit rate.
Kenta Maeda is bordering on cooked at this point in his career. The 36-year-old sports a career-worst 4.74 xERA and a 4.84 xFIP. Opposing hitters have crushed Maeda this season, producing a .466 xSLG and a 10.4% barrel rate.
Jackson Merrill - OF, WSH vs. Tylor Megill ($3.6K DK, $2.8K FD)
Jackson Merrill was due for a breakout, and he has absolutely caught fire in recent days. The rookie has hit safely in nine of his last 10 games, homering four times over his past three contests. Overall, Merrill is up to a strong .281/.315/.413 slash line, and his .492 xSLG and .303 xBA suggest even better performance is to be expected.
4 HR in Jackson Merrill's last three games! pic.twitter.com/QB6IRUNkxT
— Talking Friars (@TalkingFriars) June 15, 2024
Tylor Megill is having the best season of his career, posting a 3.51 ERA over 25.2 innings pitched. Still, the sample size is small, and Megill's advanced metrics indicate that regression is on the way. As a jumping-off point, Megill carries a weak 4.31 xERA, consisting of a generous 10.8% barrel rate, 43.1% hard-hit rate, and a .329 xwOBA. Merrill matches up particularly well against him today because left-handed hitters are slugging .485 against Megill for his career.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Houston Astros vs. Kenta Maeda
- Favorite Plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz
2. San Diego Padres vs. Tylor Megill
- Favorite Plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Luis Arraez, Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill
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