Golf Course Preview for PGA Betting - Scouting the 2024 U.S. Open

3 months ago by Ian McNeill

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It's hard to believe the golfing season has already entered its second half, but with the third Major of the year on tap this week at Pinehurst, the stretch run of professional golf in 2024 is approaching quickly on the horizon.

For World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, the week will provide another golden opportunity to add to his season's ever-growing case as the most dominant in golf history. For Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka, Pinehurst could be the perfect canvas to further ascend the ranks of golfing greats, and for the more under-the-radar participants, they can point to 80-1 long shot Martin Kaymer -- a winner by eight at the last U.S. Open played on this hallowed ground.

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability at Pinehurst No. 2 and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Pinehurst No. 2 and the 2024 U.S. Open!

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The Golf Course

Pinehurst No. 2 - Par 70; 7,548 yards

Past Champions

2023 - Wyndham Clark (-10) over Rory McIlroy
2022 - Matt Fitzpatrick (-6) over Scottie Scheffler and Will Zalatoris
2021 - Jon Rahm (-6) over Louis Oosthuizen
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau (-6) over Matthew Wolff
2019 - Gary Woodland (-13) over Brooks Koepka
2018 - Brooks Koepka (+1) over Tommy Fleetwood

Bonus: U.S. Open's held at Pinehurst

2014 - Martin Kaymer (-9) over Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton
2005 - Michael Campbell (E) over Tiger Woods
1999 - Payne Stewart (-1) over Phil Mickelson

Pinehurst by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee)

Looking more like a course airdropped from the Australian Sand Belt than the lush Piedmont of North Carolina, Pinehurst is as anomalous of a U.S. Open venue as we've seen since Chambers Bay nine years ago. The firm, sand-capped turf will cause these fairways to run as fast as we ever expect to see on American soil, and a collection of vast, sandy waste areas will take the place of the U.S. Open's notorious standard of 5-inch, hoseled rough.

One of the many reasons Pinehurst is so adored by those in architecture circles is that it needs none of these tried-and-true gimmicks to rank among the toughest Major Championship venues in the rota. One water hazard resides on the entire property -- although it's scarcely in play for the best in the world, and the absence of hack-out rough allows players access to recovery shots no matter how far off-line they happen to travel.

Of all the difficulties associated with No. 2, however, its tee shots are far from the most notorious. Its fairways measure from 35-45 yards wide on average, and the aforementioned lack of true miss penalty should allow the game's preeminent bombers to swing freely. Back in 2014, the last time we saw Pinehurst on this stage, eight of the top 11 finishers ranked inside the top 50 in Driving Distance, while only one (Henrik Stenson) ranked inside the top 60 in Driving Accuracy.

As a result, my driving model for this week stands in direct contrast to what I relied upon at Muirfield Village -- a course with one of the highest missed fairway penalties on Tour. I'll be weighing distance over accuracy in the aggregate. However, I don't expect driving as a whole to take up a substantial share of my overall modeling -- as the chance for players to separate themselves this week truly will come on the second shot and beyond.

Pinehurst by the Numbers (Approach)

The second shot is where we'll be first exposed to the most treacherous part of Pinehurst's routing: its green complexes. Donald Ross's turtleback greens have become infamous across the golfing world for their severe slopes and microscopic landing zones that, while doing a great job at rewarding good shots, also promise to punish mediocre ones as stiffly as any course on the planet.

As a result, precise iron play is virtually a prerequisite for success this week, as players who are unable to hold these surfaces on a semi-regular basis will be consistently staring down the barrel of some of the most difficult greenside surrounds ever constructed. In 2014, six of the top 11 players on the leaderboard ranked inside the top 25 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and every single player ranked at least in the top half on Tour with their iron play that season.

In particular, I'll be looking at long iron play, specifically from 175 yards and beyond, as Pinehurst features four Par 3's that all measure over 180 yards, two Par 5's that measure 588 and 617, respectively, and seven Par 4's that range between 470 and 530 yards.

With this routing, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for 70% of approach shots to come from 175 yards and beyond at No. 2. My tried and true metrics like Strokes Gained per Shot, Proximity, and Good Shot Percentage will all come into play, but maybe more than ever this week, I'll be honing in on players who tend to excel in difficult scoring conditions when simply hitting greens in regulation is a feat in itself. At perhaps no other venue this year is the phrase "aggressive swing to a conservative target" more apt than at Pinehurst -- as with only four players in the history of the U.S. Open able to break par around No. 2, patience and decision-making will be as paramount as sheer ability. If history is any indicator, the difference between success and failure in these crucial areas has the potential to swing a scorecard by three shots (or more).

Pinehurst by the Numbers (Around the Greens)

Like Augusta National and St. Andrews before it (the two most difficult around-the-green tests since 2015), Pinehurst's combination of tight run-offs, short grass, and extreme contouring make for a truly diabolical set of greenside surrounds. While we don't have access to the strokes gained numbers from 2014, the surrounding metrics indicate that this week could well surpass the two classical courses in terms of pure short-game difficulty.

Scrambling percentages sat at an incredible 49.9% here just ten years ago -- cutting the historical rates we see at Augusta National by two and a half percent. In addition, there were a whopping 10 holes on the property in 2014 that featured double bogey/worse rates over 3%. Unlike TPC Sawgrass, Muirfield Village, and some of the other courses that feature a high frequency of double boxes on the scorecard, No. 2 features very little in the way of potential penalty strokes: meaning many of those big numbers came strictly on the back of short-game mishaps.

We mentioned previously that an off-line approach shot at Pinehurst could carry as large a penalty as anywhere on Tour, and you can be sure that at least a few of this week's cast of marquee names will have their dreams dashed by the shot of a ball rolling back to their feet, or to another perilous resting spot around Pinehurst's greens. Short game acumen (particularly off of short grass) will be paramount to a player's success or failure this week, and I'll be adding a heavy weight on past around the green splits around Augusta National, Congaree, Shinnecock Hills, and any other course that requires a deft touch from a tight greenside lie.

Pinehurst by the Numbers (Putting)

With all the time we've spent discussing the ways these greens repel incoming approaches and chip shots, you'll likely (and correctly) have assumed that Pinehurst should provide players with some of the most difficult greens to navigate all season. In 2014, the three-putt percentage sat at a whopping 5.0% -- over 2% higher than the Tour average, and all but two of the top eight finishers ranked inside the top 30 on Tour in either 3-Putt Avoidance or Approach Putt Performance.

Long-range putting stats like this will make up the crux of my putting modeling -- particularly as stats like 3-putt avoidance and Approach Putt performance have the added benefit of projecting short game touch for players who opt to pull putter from Pinehurst's tricky greenside surrounds (see: Martin Kaymer, 2014).

Additionally, the agronomy of Pinehurst's greens is one of the few tangible changes we can expect from the version we saw 10 years ago (yardage-wise, the course has actually gotten 12 yards shorter). From the fairways, tees, collars, and greens, Pinehurst now sports wall-to-wall Bermuda grass as opposed to the bent grass greens it was known for in years past. I will be looking at long-term splits on Fast, undulating Bermuda greens in addition to the general lag-putting metrics I discussed earlier.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

Long Iron Play -- looking particularly closely at Strokes Gained per Shot, Proximity to the Hole, and GIR % from 175 yards and beyond.
Short game touch -- whether it's a proven aptitude chipping off of tightly mown short grass or lag putting from 60, 70 feet, and beyond
Three-putt Avoidance/Historic proficiency on fast Bermuda greens
Strokes Gained in Difficult Scoring Conditions
Driving Distance/Total Driving
History at other firm, fast, long-iron/short-game intensive courses (Augusta, Shinnecock, Congaree, Concession, etc.)

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Brooks Koepka

Bounce Back Brooks!

Koepka within two feet 👀#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/53F4mwvmPK

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 17, 2024

Fresh off of an eight-birdie 65 in the final round of LIV Houston, it almost defies belief that Brooks Koepka can still be found at prices of 25-1 at Pinehurst. Of course, ten years ago, this very venue provided American golf fans with their first look at a player who would quickly become the most decorated golfer of his generation.

Now a 34-year-old veteran, Brooks will look to finish the job he started on North Carolina soil as a fresh-faced rookie and pair his three PGA Championship titles with a third U.S. Open. Since coming fourth here back in 2014, Koepka has just one U.S. Open finish worse than 18th in eight successive starts -- including two wins at Erin Hills and Shinnecock and a runner-up to Gary Woodland at Pebble Beach.

For a player of Koepka's caliber, there isn't such a thing as a moral victory at a Major Championship. And given his form coming into the PGA last month, Koepka himself would have lamented his lack of relevance in his title defense. Despite touting him myself at 22-1, however, I give Brooks a pass for a mundane 26th-place finish, as Valhalla's receptive conditions softened the consequences for middling shots and encouraged a much more aggressive approach than Brooks has used in his five Major wins to date. Koepka did manage to gain strokes in all four major categories that week, however, and has a win and top tens on the LIV Tour over his last three starts.

With the game clearly in a good place for an injury-free Koepka, Pinehurst presents another golden opportunity to add to his historic trophy cabinet. Brooks has repeatedly stated how much he relishes the grind of a difficult Major Championship venue, and this week, that mentality will aid him as much as any other. Along with Scottie himself, Brooks's ability to separate from the pack is the most magnified as conditions get tougher and lesser players are weeded out through poor decision-making, course management, or lack of preparation for the moment. Pinehurst seems as good a track as any for Koepka to fully flex those intangibles, and he's absolutely worth a shot as a relative afterthought on betting boards.

Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki Matsuyama sets up birdie for the solo lead (-16) with an exceptional tee shot to 6 inches on 16. 📈🎯

📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/eOwzieN9F5

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) February 18, 2024

With Scottie Scheffler priced as the shortest favorite in a Major Championship in 15 years, the middle range of this betting board has been largely taken up by marquee names without a ton of recent results to draw from. From Cameron Smith's 80 in his last round at LIV Houston to the tortuous decline of Jordan Spieth's iron play and the lack of any sort of life from former top-five player Patrick Cantlay, it's difficult to drum up any sort of optimism for this cast of fallen stars.

At 55-1, however, Hideki Matsuyama does present a very compelling case as the biggest value on current betting boards. As has unfortunately become a tradition for the Japanese No. 1 in recent years, injury concerns have stifled his prospects at the year's first two Majors -- and kept him completely out of two marquee events at Harbour Town and Quail Hollow.

But last week at Muirfield Village, Matsuyama finally showed glimpses of the form, which had many touting him at prices of 20-1 at Augusta National. Hideki gained over three and a half shots on approach and 6.1 from tee-to-green in an eighth-place finish at the Memorial, recording the fourth-best cumulative score in the field over the final three days.

With that performance and a clean bill of health, Hideki will now enter the year's third Major Championship with the best value proposition we've seen since his win at 80-1 at the Genesis Invitational this past February. Pinehurst's combination of long-iron play and short-game skill will suit Matsuyama's game to a tee, as Hideki still ranks first on Tour in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens and sixth in Proximity from beyond 175.

Of course, in the two months leading up to the year's first Major Championship, Matsuyama recorded marquee finishes of 1st, 12th, and sixth at elevated events in Los Angeles, Orlando, and Ponte Vedra -- proving that at his best, he's still more than capable of mixing it up with the best players on the planet. At 55-1, I don't think you can find a much more compelling case to tackle the titans at the top of this week's betting board.

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