RADIO
It has been a great week in Dublin, Ohio in the place that Jack Nicklaus built at Muirfield Village. The tournament that always seems to deliver thrilling moments has provided more of the same through the first three rounds. It has been a tough grind for the world's best players, making for good preparation for next week's U.S. Open.
After a rollercoaster third round which saw almost everyone at the top of the board stumble at one point or another, by days' end things had concluded with the recently frequent outcome of Scottie Scheffler blowing away the rest of the field in ball striking and score. The world number one will begin the day with a four-stroke lead, and with tough conditions in store, it will be Scheffler's tournament to win or lose.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. The usual strategy is finding guys who played well the previous day(s), particularly the players who have shown strong ability with their irons. However, it's also important to make roster decisions that give you ownership leverage over other players in your contest. This is usually done by taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
After calmer and more scorable conditions to start the week; things turned incredibly windy since the second round and will continue during the final round tomorrow. No matter when players tee off, they will face challenging conditions. The only advantage guys have in the morning will be playing into more receptive greens than the leaders, as the windy conditions will continue to make greens less accepting as the day progresses.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys that have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday, and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, and finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Viktor Hovland took a shot to the nads today when he played his final seven holes in five-over-par, which included four bogeys and a double. The bizarre breaks on hole 11 triggered a chain reaction that sunk his hopes for defending, but hitting quality shots that narrowly ended up in hazards or horrible spots has a way of shocking the system. Even with the horrendous end to his round, Hovland ranks third in strokes gained off the tee (+0.96) and 11th in strokes gained on approach (+1.01). He has also proven to be pretty handy in the wind.
Other options: It's a must to include Scottie Scheffler everywhere in 2024 if you can get up to his price tag. There were two separate three-shot swings today on both of his bogey holes but yet he still leads by four shots. Unreal stuff.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Colin Morikawa is one of the hottest players on the planet right now without picking up a win. The main reason is his final-round performance as he has struggled to keep the gas pedal down on Sunday. However, given the conditions they'll be up against tomorrow, no one is better suited to give Scheffler a run. He is ranked inside the top 17 for the tournament in every strokes gained category other than around the green, most notably ranking fifth in strokes gained on approach (+1.46) and ninth in strokes gained off the tee (+0.66).
The iron game continues to improve for @Collin_Morikawa 💯
He moves to T3 after a birdie on No. 3 @MemorialGolf. pic.twitter.com/ZKJ3YWGker
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 7, 2024
Other Options: Hideki Matsuyama
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Corey Conners had a horrendous day on the greens of his third round, losing over six shots with the putter. It's not like dodgy putting isn't something we don't already know, but losing that much is almost impossible to replicate for a tour-quality player; especially for one who gained strokes on the greens in the first two rounds. The 53rd-ranked player on tour in round four scoring average is one of the most trustworthy ball strikers outside Scottie Scheffler for tomorrow's conditions.
Other Options: Keegan Bradley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Sepp Straka is perhaps one of the worst final-round performers in the entire field, however, it isn't due to major fluctuations in scores. This only means he's struggled to take things low on Sunday, but not much has resulted in a complete collapse. He leads the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.30) and has improved every round. When conditions are as tough as they will be tomorrow, it's important to have guys who can just hang on for the full round. Straka is one of those guys.
Sepp Straka aces the 12th hole at Augusta! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/rPUKhTT5px
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) April 3, 2023
Other Options: Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge
$6,000+
Favorite Play: After a terrible opening round 77, Austin Ekroat has posted steady rounds of one-under-par in both rounds since by finding success with the irons. He gained nearly three shots on approach in today's round alone and against the field is ranked 11th in strokes gained on approach (+1.01) and 15th in strokes gained tee to green (+1.19).
Other Options: Peter Malnati
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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