Champ or Chump: Justyn-Henry Malloy and Mark Vientos Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

We're two months into the season, and MLB clubs are officially deviating from their preseason plans. Spencer Torkelson, Brett Baty, Reid Detmers, and Edouard Julien all figured to be major pieces in their organizations, and as of today, all four are in the minor leagues.

Fantasy managers may also need to start making tough decisions like dropping a pre-season stud or becoming a seller in 2024 (don't do that unless you have no other choice). Luckily, big league teams moving on gives us new options to consider.

Detroit is replacing Torkelson with Justyn-Henry Malloy, a 24-year-old with 3B and OF eligibility who led the minors in walks last year. The Mets swapped Baty with Mark Vientos, a 24-year-old who has done nothing but hit for power on the farm. Let's take a closer look at what they might do for our fantasy rosters.

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Justyn-Henry Malloy (3B/OF, DET) 2% Rostered

Malloy isn't on the fantasy radar because scouts don't love him. His FanGraphs scouting report sounds like a bench guy at best:

He's below average at hitting, running, and fielding while struggling to access his plus raw power in games. He's ranked 11th in Detroit's system and compared to J.D. Davis.

His MLB.com scouting report is a little more optimistic but still nothing to get too excited about:

MLB.com sees a slightly-plus hitter with league-average pop, no speed, and a suspect glove. They have him ranked sixth in Detroit's system, fitting for a guy drafted in the sixth round.

Why should fantasy managers care about this guy? The answer is plate discipline. Scouting reports don't effectively capture Malloy's game, so we shouldn't pay too much attention to them. Instead, we should look at his MiLB history to see what he does on the field.

Malloy reached the High Minors in 2022 as a member of the Braves organization, slashing .268/.403/.421 with six homers in 238 PAs for Double-A (Mississippi). A .354 BABIP propped up his line, but it's tough to fake an 18.1% BB%. His 25.2% K% wasn't bad either, especially since the strikeouts were more the result of passivity than swing-and-miss. The performance earned Malloy a 33 PA trial at Triple-A (Gwinnett), where he posted a .424 OBP.

Malloy was traded to the Tigers in the Joe Jimenez deal and spent the 2023 campaign at Triple-A (Toledo). He hit .277/.417/.474 with 23 HR and five steals across 611 PAs. His peripherals were virtually identical to his work at Double-A the season before: 18% BB%, 24.9% K%, and .354 BABIP. Malloy's FB% jumped from 32.8% to 38.1%, bringing him to a 20-HR pace that should keep pitchers honest and let him work walks.

Malloy returned to Toledo to begin 2024, hitting .253/.410/.473 with six homers and three steals over 195 PAs. He maintained his 20-HR pace while improving his BB% to an insane 20%. Malloy's K% increased slightly to 26.7%, but that's fine if he's walking so often.

Plate discipline is Malloy's carrying skill. Traditional scouting reports don't cover plate discipline, so it's only natural that Malloy slipped through the cracks. If you play in an OBP league or a points format that likes walks, Malloy is a Champ who should make an immediate impact.

Fantasy gamers in 5x5 formats should put Malloy on their watchlist to see how the Tigers use him. His lineup slot will determine whether his OBP translates to runs scored and traditional fantasy value.

Mark Vientos (1B/3B, NYM) 18% Rostered

Vientos is off to a hot start with the 2024 Mets, hitting .321/.377/.607 with four homers over 61 PAs. A highly-regarded prospect with those numbers would be rostered in way more leagues, but fantasy managers are skeptical of Vientos after he failed to produce in 2022 and 2023. Once again, we have to look at MiLB data to see the "real" Vientos.

Vientos reached the High Minors with Double-A (Binghamton) in 2021, slashing .281/.346/.580 with 22 HR in 306 PAs. That works out to a 40-homer pace, which is upside you can't usually find on waivers in June. The downside was a 28.4% K% backed by a 16% SwStr%, but his 8.5% BB% suggested he had at least some idea of the zone. The successful season earned Vientos 43 PAs with Triple-A (Syracuse), where he added three more homers.

Vientos began 2022 in Syracuse and hit an impressive .280/.358/.519 with 24 HR in 427 PAs. He cut his SwStr% to 15% and increased his BB% to 10.3%, but his 28.6% K% meant that swing-and-miss was still the biggest flaw in his game. Vientos was rewarded with a brief taste of MLB, though his .167/.268/.278 line in 41 PAs failed to impress.

It was back to Syracuse to begin 2023, and Vientos torched Triple-A pitching with a .306/.387/.612 line and 16 homers over 269 PAs. He again made incremental improvements in BB% (10.8%) and SwStr% (13%), and this time saw a corresponding improvement in his K% (21.6%). We have 2023 Triple-A chase rates now, and Vientos demonstrated a good eye with a 29.9% mark.

Vientos got a longer look with the Mets and slugged nine homers in 233 PAs, but his overall line of .211/.253/.367 fell short of expectations. The biggest bugaboo was his 4.3% BB% against a 30.5% K%, backed by a 17.7% SwStr% and 37.3% chase rate. His .264 BABIP didn't help either.

Vientos began the 2024 campaign in Syracuse and hit .284/.376/.500 with six homers in 137 PAs. He walked at a strong 12% clip with a 27.5% chase rate but still struck out too frequently (28.6% K% and 14% SwStr%). He hasn't solved this issue in the big leagues as his 21.3% K% and 8.2% BB% are masking a 16.6% SwStr% and 37.4% chase rate.

Vientos has just over 300 PAs in MLB and over 1,000 in the High Minors. We have a much more reliable sample size in the minors, where Vientos is a proven slugger who takes the occasional walk. It's possible that he was pressing as a Met with his close friend and competitor Baty in the same dugout.

Going forward, Vientos is a Champ for fantasy managers looking for power. Triple-A inflates offensive statistics, but a 40-homer pace is still tough to do. Vientos also has a better eye than we've seen with the Mets, and the fluid Mets lineup should see Vientos claim an important role if he performs.

If you're more concerned with batting average or OBP, Vientos probably isn't the answer. The strikeouts aren't going anywhere.

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