RADIO
If you're one of the few golf fans (according to Rory McIlroy) who enjoys watching some of the best players in the world hack it around like a weekend warrior, the next two weeks will be tailor-made for your suitabilities. Muirfield Village and Pinehurst are about as challenging of a set of venues as we could ever hope for in professional golf, and particularly over the last few years, Jack's Place has emerged as a venue to be truly feared.
From thick, ankle-deep rough to deep greenside bunkering and lightning-quick bentgrass greens, you'd be excused for confusing Muirfield Village with more of a Major Championship venue than many others in recent history. In fact, since a 2020 redesign that finally put Jack's grand vision into full focus, only Augusta National has played as a more difficult venue to par in the subsequent four seasons. One thing is for sure: the player who earns that famous handshake from the Golden Bear on Sunday afternoon will have had to survive 72 holes of peril within the confines of his sublimely manicured den.
This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Muirfield Village Golf Club and the 2024 Memorial Tournament!
The Golf Course
Muirfield Village Golf Club - Par 72; 7,569 yards
Past Champions
- 2023 - Viktor Hovland (-7) over Denny McCarthy (playoff)
- 2022 - Billy Horschel (-13) over Aaron Wise
- 2021 - Patrick Cantlay (-13) over Collin Morikawa (playoff)
- 2020 - Jon Rahm (-9) over Ryan Palmer
- 2019 - Patrick Cantlay (-19) over Adam Scott
Muirfield Village by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):
- Average Fairway Width -- 33.9 yards; 15th widest on the PGA Tour
- Average Driving Distance -- 286.4 yards; 13th lowest on Tour
- Driving Accuracy -- 63.6%; 11th highest on Tour
- Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.47; Highest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.010); 12th toughest on Tour
With a scoring average of 73.88 over the last four years, Jack Nicklaus's Muirfield Village has clearly established itself as the toughest recurring test on the PGA Tour. Since 2020, it has never ranked lower than seventh in difficulty to par, and unlike many recent Major Championship venues, Muirfield Village doesn't even need the trick of a Par 70/71 layout to accomplish these lofty averages.
There are, of course, many reasons as to why Muirfield Village stands out from the pack as one of the most difficult courses on the schedule: but perhaps none are as pertinent as the peril players face from the tee box. Jack's four-inch mix of Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass, and fescue has played as the most punitive rough on the schedule in five of the last seven years (average penalty of 0.46 shots), and the 13 holes in which water comes into play boost this week's Penalty Fraction to 5.8% (a mark higher than even some of Florida's most waterlogged layouts).
As a result, success at Muirfield Village has been much more correlated to accuracy as opposed to distance (despite ranking as the fifth-longest course on Tour this season). Last year, only two of the top eight finishers on the leaderboard rated above the field average in driving distance, while eight of nine gained to the field in fairway percentage -- and over the last three years, only three of 33 top ten finishers have ranked below the field average in Good Drive Percentage.
One allowance that is afforded to players this week is in the forgiveness of Muirfield Village's fairways. Measuring just under 34 yards wide on average, there is enough room to be had for the week's most accurate players to log driving accuracy percentages of 70-80%. These percentages might also be bolstered by recent rains in the area that project to soften the landing areas and lessen the amount of guesswork players will have to deal with when the ball hits the ground. If players aren't able to take advantage of this generosity, however, they're likely in for a fight against par for the duration of the hole.
Muirfield Village by the Numbers (Approach):
- Green in Regulation Rate -- 58.8%; Fifth lowest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.044); Fifth toughest on Tour
- Key Proximity Ranges:
- 200+ yards (accounted for 32.0% of last season's approach shots)
- 175-200 yards (17.6%)
- 150-175 yards (17.2%)
As brutal of a driving test as Muirfield Village has become in recent years, the Golden Bear has set many more traps throughout this thorough tee-to-green examination. Measuring just 5,000 square feet on average, the greens at Muirfield Village rank as the third smallest we'll see all season -- a defense normally reserved for some of the Tour's shortest layouts.
Unlike the microscopic targets we see at Pebble Beach or Harbour Town every year, however, Jack's greens here at Muirfield Village will require players to take aim with a long-iron in hand routinely. Nearly one-third of approach shots last season came from over 200 yards, and one-half of approaches came from beyond 175.
This combination of long-iron intensiveness, small greens, and firm turf resulted in the lowest Green in Regulation rate on the PGA Tour last season (50.5). Over the last four seasons, that rate has never climbed above 57.3% and never ranked worse than the fifth-toughest approach course on the PGA Tour.
Again, softer conditions will mitigate the difficulties players have faced in recent years (although no significant rain is projected at any point during tournament week), but regardless of what factor moisture plays in scoring, the emphasis we should place on iron play can not go understated. In fact, over the last six tournaments held here in Dublin, only one Champion has managed to earn this prestigious title while gaining less than five strokes to the field on approach.
The top five finishers here have gained over 40% of their total strokes with their irons (a share greater than off-the-tee and around the greens combined), and over the last three seasons, just 13% (9/67) of the top 20 finishers have attained that position despite losing strokes on approach. Iron play will be far-and-away my most heavily weighted metric -- specifically from 175 yards and beyond.
Muirfield Village by the Numbers (Around the Greens):
- Scrambling Percentage -- 52.5%; 5.2% below Tour Average
- Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.046); Fourth toughest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.028); Seventh toughest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.082); Toughest on Tour
- SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.052); Third toughest on Tour
There may be more correlative stats to success this week at Muirfield Village, but I'm confident in saying that no part of this golf course will wreak as much havoc on player's scorecards than its greenside surrounds. Since 2015, this course has never ranked lower than the sixth most difficult venue to scramble around on the PGA Tour, and the same rough that we talked about being so penal off of the fairway staunchly maintains that reputation off of the greens.
In fact, since 2015, only four courses have produced a higher average rough difficulty from around the green: Winged Foot at the 2020 U.S. Open, Quail Hollow at the 2017 PGA Championship, Oak Hill at the 2023 PGA, and Shadow Creed at the 2021 CJ Cup.
The greenside bunkers around Muirfield Village also deserve special mention, as they've ranked as the fourth, seventh, 12th, and second most difficult bunkers to scramble from over the last four seasons. With a green-in-regulation rate that sits at 58.8% over the last nine seasons (and just 50.5% 12 months ago), players will be expected to navigate these greenside surroundings much more than on an average week. It's no surprise, then, that the last six winners have gained an average of 3.53 strokes with their short games, and only 17% of top ten finishers since 2020 have been able to attain that position with a negative week around the greens.
Around the green, play will be as heavily weighted in my modeling as it has been all year, and I'll be looking particularly closely at a player's historic acumen around other golf courses with dense rough and deep greenside bunkering guarding their putting surfaces.
Muirfield Village by the Numbers (Putting):
- Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. feet
- Agronomy -- Bentgrass
- Stimpmeter: 12.5-13
- 3-Putt Percentage: 2.8% (0.2% below Tour Average)
- Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (+0.000); 16th easiest on Tour
The putting surfaces themselves this week will be yet another in a long line of bentgrass greens in recent memory. Routinely coming in at over 12.5-13 on the stimpmeter, the greens at Muirfield Village do often rank as some of the fastest on Tour. However, apart from their sheer speed, they don't have a ton of added nuance associated with them.
In contrast to the three tee-to-green metrics we've discussed in previous sections, Muirfield Village doesn't actually rate as a particularly difficult course to putt on. The three-putt percentage here sits below the PGA Tour average, and over the last three years: Muirfield Village has ranked as the 17th, 27th, and 33rd most difficult course to gain strokes from beyond 15 feet.
Inside of fifteen feet has been a relative cakewalk as well, as Muirfield Village has ranked in the bottom half of Tour difficulty in each of the last three seasons. This lack of bite, along with the severe penalty associated with deficiencies in each of the ball-striking metrics I outlined earlier, means that putting will naturally take a bit of a back seat compared to most weeks.
However, this isn't to say that putting is completely irrelevant at Muirfield Village, as the last six winners at this course have gained an average of 4.06 strokes on the greens (and who could forget last season: where the best putter on the planet, Denny McCarthy, nearly single-handedly put himself in the winner's circle on the back of a blackout flat stick). In percentage terms, though, I will be weighing putting significantly less than in normal weeks, as the penalty for poor putting has proven much less severe than a clear deficiency in other aspects of your profile.
Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):
- Mid/long iron play -- specifically looking at Proximity, Strokes Gained, and GIR splits from beyond 150 yards
- Driving Accuracy/Good Drive Percentage
- History here at Muirfield Village
- Scrambling from thick rough/deep greenside bunkering
- Historic putting splits on fast bentgrass greens
- Par 5 Scoring
- Strokes Gained in Difficult Scoring Conditions
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
The Sunday Shortlist
Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.
Viktor Hovland
Viktor Hovland TIES the lead at 19-under with a birdie on 13! 🇳🇴
🎥 @PGAChampionship | #PGAChamppic.twitter.com/NgLEMZ1zXY
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) May 19, 2024
After spending most of PGA Championship weekend lamenting the fact that I didn't stay bullish on Viktor Hovland off of the best ball-striking week of his season at Quail Hollow, the four days at Valhalla were all I needed to see to be completely back on board the Hovland train this summer.
According to Viktor himself, it took just 30 minutes with former coach Joe Mayo to reintroduce the feelings he had over the ball during his world-beating run through 2023. And from the eye test alone, Hovland seemed in full control of his bag at the year's second Major. The driver was once again at its metronomic best as "Vik" hit his patented pull-cut off of every tee down the stretch Sunday afternoon -- missing just two fairways in the process of gaining a whopping 1.77 strokes OTT.
The iron play was equally as impressive, as Hovland gained 6.74 strokes on approach over the final three days in Louisville -- hitting 81% of his greens in regulation on a golf course that featured just 5/18 approach shots inside of 170 yards.
The putter made clutch putt after clutch putt as Vik made his Sunday charge before cruelly cooling off on makable birdie looks at 17 and 18. However, I don't think you could find a single golf fan who watched this weekend's action and didn't get at least a few flashbacks of the killer we watched take over the golfing world a few short months ago.
Hovland recorded the best tee-to-green performance we've seen from him since last year's runner-up finish in the PGA Championship -- a result that coincidentally spring-boarded him into a win at Muirfield Village two weeks later. I don't think it's far-fetched to consider him among the leading candidates to replicate that feat in 2024, and even as I expect books to slash his price back below 20-1, Viktor Hovland is an entity I cannot wait to add back into my betting portfolio.
Collin Morikawa
Bounce-back birdie for Collin Morikawa at the 3rd 🐦#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/enpc0mkbcc
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 18, 2024
As Collin Morikawa has recorded one of his more consistent stretches in recent seasons (three top-fours; no finish worse than 16th in five starts), I have found myself strangely hesitant to buy into the most profitable golfer in my long-term portfolio.
Much of my concern revolved around the splits we were seeing in his most reliable long-term skill: his iron play. In an eight-start stretch from Pebble Beach to Quail Hollow, Collin was not only coming in far below his career-long splits of 3.1 strokes gained/start -- he was shockingly rating out below the baselines of the average PGA Tour player. Collin gained strokes in just two of those eight starts from February to May, a shocking run of form for a player who, in the two seasons prior, had lost strokes on approach in just three of 36 tournaments.
However, one potential positive that came from this uncharacteristic stretch of iron play has been the recent developments to Collin's short game: as in that same eight-start stretch from Monterrey to Charlotte, Collin gained strokes to the field with his short game in 75% of his events. Collin ranks ninth in this field in SG: Around the Greens over his last 36 rounds and has gained strokes, putting in four of his last five starts.
These recent improvements are all the more exciting for his supporters when you look under the hood at Collin's last two starts. In fourth-place finishes at Colonial and Valhalla, Morikawa's trademark ball striking has finally found its footing, gaining a combined 7.3 strokes on approach. His driver has remained as metronomic of an entity as you'll find in the sport: ranking second in Driving Accuracy and sixth in Good Drive Percentage. And, of course, Collin has already built up a prodigious track record around Jack's Place at Muirfield Village.
Collin won the inaugural Workday Charity Open here at Muirfield Village back in 2020 -- the first of two consecutive events in Dublin after the COVID break. He lost in a playoff to Patrick Cantlay the very next year, and twelve months ago, Morikawa looked to be a central part of the Memorial storyline once again: sitting just two shots back of the lead Sunday morning before a back injury forced him to withdraw.
In five career starts in Dublin, Collin has yet to lose strokes in either of the two ball-striking categories. His trademark left-to-right cut will suit many of the tee boxes designed by one of the game's most iconic faders, and if recent form is to be believed, Morikawa also comes into the week with as much confidence as we've ever seen from the two-time Major Champion. Things are as well aligned as I've seen for Collin in years, and I believe it's only a matter of time before he finds his way back into the conversation as one of the best players on the planet. Count me in at any price >16-1; I'd be more than happy to go into battle this week with these two members of Club 61.
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