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It has been an odd year for some big names in the MLB. Some of the best players from 2023 have taken a significant step back in 2024. As the season rounds into June, falling back on the idea of "slow starters" becomes less and less reliable. Some of these underachievers will need to be cut or traded, while others are more likely to round into form.
Fantasy baseball managers need to be assessing the predictive and peripheral statistics for these players. Identifying promising under-the-hood statistics will allow managers to target buy-low candidates who are likely to improve. On the other hand, players without reason for optimism can be traded, even at a reduced price, if the remainder of the season looks bleak.
Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) evaluates underperforming players who were in the preseason top-50 rankings to identify which players are likely to round into form and can currently be acquired for pennies on the dollar. Rankings come from Yahoo leagues with a standard 5x5 category setup.
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Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
Preseason Rank: 14
Current Rank: 232
It remains to be seen if Olson can approach a 14 overall ranking on the year, but he also will finish well above 200, and likely top-100 in 2024 once it is all said and done. Despite his relatively poor performance, there is significant reason for optimism with Olson across the remainder of the season. Olson's Statcast profile provides a nice visual below.
He has managed to maintain a top 50 ISO in 2024, currently sitting at .191. More importantly, this is backed by a 13.1% Barrel%, good for a top-25 ranking in 2024. Couple that with a 53.8% HardHit%, and Olson is still ripping the cover off the ball with a solid launch angle. His .292 BABIP suggests the mediocre average may linger, but the power stats and thereby counting stats are going to positively regress throughout 2024. Buy him before he morphs back into a top-5 3B.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
Preseason Rank: 32
Current Rank: 277
Lopez is going to round into form and improve his numbers significantly in the coming months. Although he holds a disappointing 4.84 ERA so far in 2024, a 3.08 xFIP suggests the best is yet to come for Lopez in 2024. His 4.0% BB% is good for a top-10 ranking across all SP in 2024. Couple that with a strong 27.1% K% and Lopez profiles as one of the best pitchers in baseball for limiting damage and staying in the zone. Actively target Lopez as a trade candidate now before the price rises meteorically.
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Preseason Rank: 36
Current Rank: 442
The Gasman profiles similarly to Lopez and should be heavily targeted as a trade candidate for a likely prolific summer of pitching ahead of him. With a 4.14 ERA and 3.24 xFIP, Gausman is set for an improvement in the ERA department. He holds a respectable 24.0% K% backed up by an above-average 28.0% CSW%. While he may not hit double-digit strikeouts as often as Lopez, he can provide useful strikeout numbers and limit damage with a 6.0% BB%.
Kevin Gausman goes 🔥98🔥 for a huge strikeout! 😮 pic.twitter.com/f6wTNYit90
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 17, 2024
Even nay-sayers on BABIP cannot deny that a .350 BABIP is unsustainable for opposing hitters. With his current ranking, the time is now to buy very, very low.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Preseason Rank: 37
Current Rank: 250
This entry is a little bit more challenging than the others, as concerns are going to linger regarding Machado's elbow. Although it has been surgically repaired and should allow him to perform better than the past couple of years, he had lingering pain entering spring training. Nonetheless, Machado is demonstrating some inspiring peripheral statistics and deserves a look.
Elbow or not, Manny is sporting a strong 48.8% HardHit% suggesting his contact is as strong as ever. He bats in the heart of a very strong lineup and has added three SB to his profile this year, a nice boost for those in categories leagues in particular. Managers need to be more cautious with what they offer for Machado compared to some of these other buy-low candidates, but Machado will finish the year as a top-10 3B with top-5 upside.
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
Preseason Rank: 38
Current Rank: 167
Although his ranking gap is not nearly as large as the two aforementioned hurlers, Kirby has underperformed in 2024 so far. He and his buddy Luis Castillo have left Mariners fans underwhelmed for what was professed to be one of the best young rotations in baseball. The current peripherals provide more reason for optimism with Kirby than Castillo
George Kirby, Painted 96mph Sinker. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/PntblhjTCV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2024
Kirby holds a 4.08 ERA currently against a 3.39 xFIP and 3.31 SIERA. The concordance of these two (somewhat) predictive numbers suggests he will improve his ERA in the coming months. He is inducing soft contact as manifested by a 34.6% HardHit%, good for a top-25 ranking in 2024. Although the price will still be significant, it is worth kicking the tires on Kirby to see if he can be acquired from a manager in need of a hitter or reliever.
Best Left Alone
The peripheral statistics on these players are not nearly as bullish as those above. These guys are best left where they are for now rather than targeting as buy-low candidates.
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners - This one hurts. The only fans who might possibly be deriving satisfaction from J-Rod's 2024 are other AL West fans rooting against the Mariners. Beyond that, seemingly everyone was rooting for the dynamic, young outfielder to continue his rise into the stratosphere. That has come to a screening halt, particularly weighed down by only four HR so far in 2024 after putting up 32 HR in 2023.
Although he has always maintained one of the highest BABIP numbers in the MLB, his .360 BABIP does not suggest he is getting "unlucky." He also holds an abysmal 7.5% HR/FB, perhaps even more concerning when seeing a significant uptick in LD% from 18.5% in 2023 to 24.2% in 2024. Most HR are not line drives, and this launch angle change is concerning for fantasy production. He will undoubtedly contribute, but the asking price is still likely too high to justify most trades.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves - Riley continues to hit the ball hard with a solid 48.3% HardHit%. Unfortunately, more of those seem to be hit into the ground. His GB% is up to 44.2% in 2024 from 41.3% in 2023, and with that, his LD% has come down from 18.5% to 14.2%. Undoubtedly he will finish higher than his current ranking, but the price is not worth it for a 3B that could finish outside the top 100 in 2024.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks - Sigh. He had to be on here but like J-Rod above, this one hurts. Carroll's mechanics and launch angles are significantly out of whack this year. An abysmal 5.4% Barrel% and 33.1% HardHit% reflect that. If a manager is fire-selling him, it is worth a conversation, but Carroll needs to make some changes before managers can expect improvement.
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets - Diaz may find himself back in the regular closer role by the end of the season and thus has value for those specifically looking for saves. On the other hand, he holds a 5.40 ERA and 4.58 FIP. His 2.66 xFIP is enticing, but the difference between his FIP and xFIP is at least partially explained by his astronomical 26.3% HR/FB, good for a bottom-three ranking across all relievers this year. Hitters are knocking it out of the park. Until that changes, Diaz's value is capped.
Camilo Doval, San Francisco Giants - Unlike Diaz, Doval at least holds the closer role and will likely hold it for all of 2024 barring injury. Thus, Doval definitely has more current (and likely long-term) value than Diaz, but is under-performing in 2024 compared to 2023. He will produce saves, but he is getting hit harder this year and walking more batters than ever before.
His 47.4% HardHit% is second worst to only Craig Kimbrel for full-time closers in 2024. His 14.9% BB% is well above his career mark of 10.3%. He does not have any obvious, significant pitch or velocity changes this year, so expect him to round into form, but he seems unlikely to live up to his preseason ranking.
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners - Castillo, the professed ace in the PNW, is underperforming his preseason rankings by over 100 spots. Unfortunately for Castillo, a 3.28 ERA compared to his 3.69 FIP and 3.58 xFIP suggests his current performance is about as good as it will get in 2024. He undoubtedly still has significant value, just not the top-30 value professed in some preseason rankings.
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