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Zach Wheeler and Tarik Skubal are both having tremendous starts to their 2024 seasons. Both are the current favorites to win the Cy Young Award in their respective leagues.
In drafts this Spring, Wheeler was being taken around pick 21 while Skubal went on average at pick 33.
Both pitchers rank as top-5 starting pitchers in 5x5 roto leagues, but which one has the better chance of finishing higher in the rankings when the season ends?
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Zack Wheeler vs. Tarik Skubal
Let's take a look at Wheeler and Skubal's stats through the first two months. We should note that Wheeler has made two more starts than Skubal at this point with Skubal making his 11th start today against Pittsburgh.
| Pitcher | IP | W | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Tarik Skubal | 60 | 6 | 72 | 2.25 | 0.85 |
| Zack Wheeler | 73.2 | 6 | 85 | 2.32 | 0.95 |
The numbers are nearly identical when you factor in the K% for Skubal he would likely have around the same number of strikeouts as Wheeler if he had the same number of starts and an additional 13 innings.
Tarik Skubal, Elevated 97mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/D3aL0O8aAN
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 22, 2024
Skubal has a slight edge in some important pitching metrics. His 31.2% K% is higher than Wheeler's 29% while Skubal's BB% of 4.3% is considerably lower than Wheeler's at 7.8%. Skubal has a slightly better SwStr% and CSW% as well as a 105 "Stuff+" rating compared to Wheeler's 104.
2024 Fantasy Baseball Rest of Season Rankings
So where will these pitchers finish in the rankings this season?
I like Wheeler's chances of overtaking Skubal at some point. While Skubal is slightly more efficient in his approach, Wheeler has the track record of a workhorse who has "been there and done that" before. Skubal has pitched only 60 and 80 innings in each of the last two seasons, respectfully, and his career-high was 149 innings back in 2021. He has not been known for his durability.
Meanwhile, Wheeler has been ultra-dependable since arriving in Philadelphia in 2020. He led the league in innings pitched in 2021 with 213 and has logged 153 and 192 innings in his last two seasons.
Zack Wheeler tonight: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K, 101 pitches (70 strikes) pic.twitter.com/LN5kviHYZz
— John Foley (@2008Philz) May 29, 2024
Wheeler also has an advantage regarding projected win totals as he's pitching for the MLB leader in wins right now, the Philadelphia Phillies. Philly is averaging 5.85 runs per game on offense, while Detroit has managed just 4.65 runs per contest. The run support should be there for Wheeler, who usually pitches deep enough into games to qualify for the win
ATC projections have Wheeler finishing with more wins, more strikeouts, and similar ratios to Skubal who has been outperforming his projections. Skubal has been great, but he should regress a little over time, making room for Wheeler to finish slightly ahead of him by season's end.
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