Fantasy Football Wide Receivers You Must Draft in 2024 - Part III

May 27, 2024

An in-depth look at three fantasy football WRs available at different rounds of your draft that need to be selected in 2024. This is Rob's third entry in the series.

This series continues moving on with our third edition, which looks at three new receivers that fantasy managers must draft this season. We've already identified six incredibly attractive receivers at their current ADPs. We're starting to move down the wide receiver ranks, which will have us focusing on several rookie receivers. Selling rookie receivers can sometimes be more difficult because we don't know if they're good yet. So much of what we're buying, at least in redraft leagues, is based on their environment and situation. How much playing time will they get? How much target volume can they command? Who is their quarterback and play-caller? These things matter so much for immediate rookie success.

This entry will focus on one veteran receiver on a new team this season and two rookie receivers who landed in excellent spots for immediate production. This series isn't just looking for impact or quality fantasy football receivers who can help your team; it focuses on value and price. What receivers are most likely to give drafters a positive return on their investment? This entry will focus on receivers being drafted at WR40 or later. At this point, fantasy managers cannot realistically expect league winners, but what about drafting a WR2-quality receiver? That should be our goal here, and if we can accomplish that, we'll give ourselves a big positive return on our investment.

This series aims to provide fantasy managers with quality players at excellent prices. Our first two series provided multiple players who have the potential to finish in the top 15. As we climb down the receiver ranks, we're looking for guys who can finish in the top 24. Our premium tools here at RotoBaller can help you win your fantasy leagues this season. If you want to sign up, please use promo code "BOOM" for a 10% discount.

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers

Let's start with this: Adam Thielen finished as the WR25 in half-PPR PPG, averaging 11.1. He had 137 targets, 103 receptions, 1,014 yards, and four touchdowns. Thielen managed to do this with Bryce Young in his rookie season, but their head coach was fired late in the season. Thielen will be 34 years old in August. The Panthers finished 31st in points and 32nd in total yards. Carolina finished 32nd in passing yards and 30th in passing touchdowns. Despite that, Thielen, of all people, finished as the WR25. Johnson is currently being drafted as the WR40 on Underdog and WR41 on Yahoo!

This offseason, Carolina completely revamped its offense. It signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, giving them a combined $150 million, which includes $89 million guaranteed. Based on that level of investment, expecting significantly improved play from the team's offensive line should be the expectation.

The Panthers also traded for Diontae Johnson and drafted first-round receiver Xavier Legette, third-round running back Jonathon Brooks, and fourth-round tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders. Maybe the biggest addition is head coach Dave Canales. He was Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator last year when he helped revitalize the career of Baker Mayfield. Before that, he was the Seahawks quarterback coach in 2022, during which time he helped Geno Smith's late-career surge. If anyone can help Young after a dreadful rookie season, it's Canales. The talent improvement on the offensive side of the ball will make Young's job much easier.

Johnson had a 23.5% target share last season, 23rd among receivers. In 2022, it was 27.0% (13th highest), 28.5% (fourth highest) in 2021, and 22.9% (27th highest) in 2020. These kinds of target shares allow Johnson to finish in the top 24 of receivers in targets. Johnson's efficiency has never really been there, an issue likely derived from poor quarterback play that he might again be plagued with in 2024. However, Young was the first overall pick for a reason. He played his rookie season with one dependable pass-catcher, the 33-year-old Thielen, a bottom-five offensive coordinator, and a head coach who got fired midway through the season. The fact that he struggled shouldn't be a surprise. Given the circumstances, that should have been the expectation.

Johnson could be in store for a hefty workload in 2024. Below is a table where you'll see the total pass attempts on the left, Johnson's potential target shares on the top, and how many targets he'd have in each situation. For each total number of pass attempts, 25 has been subtracted as most teams have 25 throwaways that are counted as pass attempts but not targeted throws.

This gives us a target total between 118 and 155. If we eliminate the best and worst three outcomes, we have a realistic target total of 128 and 144. Those are extremely healthy numbers, especially considering his current WR40 price. How many receivers in that range will fantasy managers find with a target floor of 125 and a target ceiling of 145? The answer, realistically, is zero.

Johnson has never played with a good quarterback. It's been old and broken down: Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Devlin Hodges, Kenny Pickett, and Mitchell Trubisky. Young wasn't good, either, but with Canales, we should expect him to at least be as good as the quarterbacks Johnson has played with, which isn't saying much. However, what kind of production could we expect with those anticipated target totals if we use Johnson's career averages?

It's pretty wild that Johnson has caught 61.2% of his targets despite having an average target depth of 9.4 yards. From 2019-2023, there are six receivers with at least 300 targets and an average target depth between 9-10 yards. Four of them have catch percentages higher than 68%. The fifth's catch rate is 65.8%. Then, there's Johnson at 61.2%. If Johnson's catch rate could get up to 65%, it would mean an extra six or so receptions.

As it currently stands, looking at the table above, those half-PPR PPG averages would have placed him at WR33 at the best outcome and WR42 at the worst. With an ADP of WR41, fantasy managers can draft Johnson at his floor. However, what if Canales can do for Young what he did for Geno and Mayfield? What if Johnson's catch rate increases to 65%?

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas can be drafted as the WR38 on Underdog and WR43 on Yahoo! Fantasy managers should be very intrigued by the rookie receiver at those prices. The Jaguars will be replacing Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones in 2023. They combined to have 200 targets, 110 receptions, 1,337 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Ridley finished with 25 red-zone targets, the third most in the NFL. Christian Kirk had six red-zone targets, and Evan Engram had 10.

Thomas had 17 touchdowns last season at LSU and is an elite athlete who could very quickly become Trevor Lawrence's preferred red-zone option. The number of targets, specifically the quality of targets, should make Thomas very appealing.

Thomas was widely viewed as the fourth-best receiver prospect in this year's draft, following the big three of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. He had an elite final season at LSU, finishing with 87 targets, 68 receptions, 1,177 yards, and 17 touchdowns. He ranked 13th in yards and first in touchdowns. Among receivers with at least 75 targets, Thomas finished 18th in yards per reception and 25th in yards per route run. He also posted an elite 9.84 RAS (relative athletic score). He's an excellent prospect who earned first-round draft capital and landed in one of the most fantasy-friendly situations one could hope for.

The image above is from Thomas' Reception Perception Profile, which can be found here. As you can see above, Thomas is an elite burner, but he was able to win on a multitude of routes. The Jaguars have a group of pass-catchers that complement each other very well. Kirk will operate as the full-time slot receiver. Engram will be the primary pass-catching tight end who also lines up a good deal in the slot. Gabe Davis will be the downfield burner used to hold safeties deep and keep defenses honest. Thomas could very well be their do-it-all receiver. With his size and athleticism, there's no doubt that's what the Jacksonville front office and coaching staff are hoping for.

Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about the former LSU receiver:

"Thomas hits the benchmarks I want to see from a quality starting outside receiver in the NFL. His 70.1% success rate vs. man and 73.9% success rate vs. press coverage aren’t elite-level scores that we see the Tier 1 prospects reach but they’re plenty good enough. Thomas has the speed to separate down the field but possesses some underrated timing and nuance underneath.  You see Thomas deceive cornerbacks with a variety of moves to sell the vertical route before working back on the curl. He comes with a solid release package that’s especially on slants against press. When facing zone, I came away impressed with his sense of when to sit down in the intermediate area and how much space he needs to afford himself on low-crossing patterns underneath coverage. You’ll notice that Thomas’ route tree is pretty stripped down. A whopping 67.1% of Thomas’ charted routes were a slant, curl or nine. It’s not the most limited route tree we’ve seen but it’s something to note on his profile. We could be looking at an early career DK Metcalf utilization plan for Thomas as a pure boundary receiver who only runs a small handful of routes. That gives him time to develop deeper skills at the position while giving his next team legitimate big-play value in a crucial position with his immediate contributions. I can see scenarios where Thomas tops out as a big-play-based No. 2 wide receiver for a quality NFL passing attack. There is zero shame in that career path. However, given his physical skills and some of his RP metrics, there’s a different potential journey for him if he develops where he becomes a faster version of Tee Higgins."

Over the past two years, the Jaguars have averaged 608 pass attempts. Kirk, Engram, Thomas, Davis, and Travis Etienne Jr. should combine for 85% of Lawrence's targets. Giving Davis and Etienne a combined 25% leaves the other three with roughly 60% of the targets, which on 608 attempts would be roughly 365. If we give Kirk and Engram 250 targets between them, that would leave Thomas with 115. Giving Thomas a target total between 110 and 120 seems reasonable, given the team's passing volume and the other pass-catchers.

With Doug Pederson Trevor Lawrence is attempting about 39 Passes per game without excluding any of the injury games

Thats 590 atts.

Year 1

Kirk 130 full season
Jones 121 1 game missed
Engram 98 full season

Year 2

Engram 143 full season
Ridley 136 full season
Kirk 85 5 games…

— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) May 5, 2024

If Thomas has 115 targets and averages a 62% catch rate and 14.5 yards per reception, he'd finish with 71 receptions and 1,030 yards. If he has six touchdowns, he'd have a 10.26 half-PPR PPG average, which would solidly outplay his current WR38-WR43 ADP.

Now, things could certainly go the other way. Maybe he doesn't garner that many targets; that's certainly possible. However, fantasy managers can draft him in the eighth and sometimes ninth rounds. There's not a lot of risk anymore. What if he averages more than 14.5 yards per reception and is closer to the 17.3 he averaged in college? What if he capitalizes on the 25 red-zone targets that Ridley left behind and scores eight touchdowns instead of six? What if he scores nine or 10? There's a clear pathway for Thomas to earn considerable volume that will allow him to outplay his current ADP.

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

I don't know what to tell you if you're not in on Ladd McConkey at his current price tag. He's being drafted as the WR45 on Yahoo! and WR54 on Underdog. Breaking down why fantasy managers should be in on McConkey is pretty simple.

First off, his quarterback is Justin Herbert. Secondly, his target competition is virtually nonexistent. The other receivers on the roster are Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, D.J. Chark, and Hayden Hurst. Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen are all gone.

Chark has been in the NFL for six years. He has one season with 95 or more targets and just two seasons with more than 55 targets. He hasn't been over 525 yards in a season since 2020, which is also the last time he caught more than 35 balls. Hurst has also been in the NFL for six seasons. He's had 40 targets or more just twice. He has just two seasons with more than 30 receptions. His best yardage seasons are 571 (2020) and 414 (2022). He didn't surpass 350 in any of the remaining four years. Their starting running back, Gus Edwards, has 30 receptions in five seasons. He's never had 15 targets. Palmer is okay. He's averaged 6.46 targets per game the last two years, which amounts to 110 targets over 17 games. His target share in the past two seasons has been 17%. Johnston, well, look at Johnston...

Quentin Johnston worst WR of all-time confirmed. pic.twitter.com/XWI2KymyCs

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) May 17, 2024

That's not the only reason you should be in on McConkey, but it's hard to ignore how amazing his situation and environment are. In three collegiate seasons at Georgia, McConkey had a catch rate of 75.3%. He ran 70.3% of his routes out wide and 29.6% in the slot.

He may move into the slot more frequently in the NFL, but he can be moved around the formation. He averaged 6.6 yards after the catch per reception for his career and averaged 6.3 or higher every season. He is a weapon after the catch. He finished his career with a 2.54 yards-per-route-run average. He had a 2.15 or higher yards-per-route-run average in all three years before setting a career high in his final year at 3.26. He also finished with a 52.6% contested-catch percentage. On top of that, McConkey was an early declare and earned high second-round draft capital. He also posted a sub-4.35 40-yard dash time and recorded a 9.34 RAS. He's an elite athlete.

The image above is from McConkey's Reception Perception profile, which can be found here. Based on his draft capital and strong Reception Perception profile, it's not a stretch to believe that McConkey is the best receiver the Chargers currently have on their roster. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about McConkey in his profile:

"McConkey finished above the 80th percentile in success rate vs. man and zone coverage. He is truly a sharp route runner who has a pro-level understanding of setting patterns up and working within the rhythm of a play against zone. His breaks are timed well and when his quarterback is on time, he’ll find the ultra reliable McConkey right where he should be. Some of McConkey’s lack of size and elite physical traits does show up in his work off the line of scrimmage. His 44.4% success rate vs. press is a troubling mark and takes away any future projection as an X-receiver. However, given how excellent he is working off-man and zone, we can have confidence in him developing into a quality flanker/slot receiver hybrid who brings real downfield juice to either alignment. All that said, he’s also perfectly reliable as a layup slot receiver considering his success rate on short routes and the fact that he did not drop a pass during his RP sampled. The more I dove into McConkey’s profile and tried to find a comparison for him outside of the typical lacy ones you’ll see, I ended up landing on Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett. The long-time NFL great is an excellent route runner who wins outside as a flanker and is both a possession and vertical threat from the slot. He separates at all three levels of the field and is a sterling technician. As we’ve seen with Lockett, when this type of player grows and reaches their full potential and is paired with quality quarterback play, a guy like this can be a No. 1-level wideout. That is the bull case in McConkey’s range of outcomes but even the median cases for him are so solid I won’t blame any team pursuing him early in the draft."

That is exactly the kind of player the Chargers need. Based on that assessment, McConkey may be the best option for the Chargers to replace Herbert's preferred No. 1 option, Keenan Allen. McConkey can easily win on those short and intermediate routes Allen feasted on over the years.

McConkey is also best suited as a flanker/slot receiver, describing Allen's best fit. However, McConkey offers more juice than Allen downfield, and with Herbert's big arm, that's an exciting piece of McConkey's game.

Based on the lack of quality pass-catchers in Los Angeles, it wouldn't be surprising if McConkey finishes as Herbert's No. 1 receiver. He could easily garner 120 targets based on the lack of talent surrounding him, and that kind of volume from a quarterback like Herbert will surely lead to him finishing far higher than his current ADP.

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