DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The PGA Championship With Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Dustin Johnson and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The PGA Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The PGA Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top None
Top 20 Entrants: 20

 

Last Five Winners of The PGA Championship

2023	Brooks Koepka	-9
2022	Justin Thomas	-5
2021	Phil Mickelson	-6
2020	Collin Morikawa	-13
2019	Brooks Koepka	-8

 

Expected Cut-Line 

2023
2022
2021
2020
2019

2014 saw a cut-line of +2 when the PGA Championship was held here.

 

Valhalla Golf Club

7,609 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

Home to one of the best major championship events over the past 25 years, Valhalla Golf Club is back in the spotlight for this week's 106th rendition of the tournament. 

The 2000 battle between Tiger Woods and Bob May delivered just about everything you would want to see as a golf fan. We got David versus a lovable Goliath, shot-making from each player that continuously was outdone by the next opportunity and the now iconic "Point and Putt" from Woods, which would be shown within the first minute of any career highlight reel of his illustrious career.

I wrote about it from May's perspective a few years ago in one of the local Vegas magazines. 

It is going to take a lot to unseat that memory of what the track delivered, but it is not as if the 2014 iteration of the contest didn't also provide theatrics when Rory McIlroy made par in pure darkness on 18 to eclipse Phil Mickelson by one shot. 

Valhalla is a track that is a behemoth on paper, measuring 7,609 yards. Thick rough and Zoysiagrass fairways provide this fire and ice combination since the rough impedes rollout on this tricky Nicklaus design but sees the firm and fast conditions of the fairways create this fiery nature that can very quickly run balls into the numerous sand traps located throughout the property. 

I decided to look at how a golfer handled their proximity totals when combining those two factors for the week, but I do want to note that these fairways are not impossible to hit. Distance is obviously going to help when a track starts to get to this 7,600+ yardage, but I'd be more interested in how someone has performed when given long courses + thick rough. That blueprint tells much more of the story than some generic guess that could favor a combination of distance or accuracy.

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat	Valhalla	PGA Average
Driving Distance	278	283
Driving Accuracy	65%	61%
GIR Percentage	62%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	55%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.41	0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (35%)

 

Strokes Gained: Long Courses + Hard Scoring (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: PGA Championship Courses (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Weighted Bunker/Rough Approach Play (10%)

 

Weighted Ball-Striking (15%)

 

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Odds	Risk	Win
Dustin Johnson	90	0.09	8.1
Viktor Hovland	50	0.14	7
Jon Rahm	20	0.35	7
Brooks Koepka	17	0.42	7.14

 

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are eight players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I will update ownership within the model over the next 24 hours, although Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler will likely be the three most popular options from this section when all is said and done. That would include every significant PGA/LIV win since the Masters a month ago and likely ends up being your three favorites within most models (mine included). 

Good Chalk: If eating chalk, I like Brooks Koepka and his major championship pedigree. That is not an answer you EVER hear me give when discussing the American, but Koepka graded first in my model for past PGA Championship results (naturally, when you have won three of the past six) and also for course-specific strokes gained at Valhalla. That combination he possesses of long iron proximity, quality total driving geared toward distance and an increase in putting at these contests always makes him a tough out. 

Under-The-Radar: Jon Rahm failed in major attempt number one after fleeing for LIV, positing a 45th-place finish at the Masters. I don't believe that had as much to do with rust as it did with an overall shaky performance. However, the one-off situation might make gamers feel safer clicking other names in this section. 

I understand that sentiment because Scheffler and McIlroy will have higher floors, but I am curious to see what kind of ownership rebate we can get from the Spaniard. If it is enough, Rahm will become a focal point of lineups because of the diversity of potential builds. 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Under-The-Radar: Joaquin Niemann hasn't put together a ton of major championship success early in his career, although I don't know how fair of an assessment it has been for him after leaving for LIV. 

Niemann graded inside the top-13 of my model for weighted scoring and projected strokes gained total. Those outputs stem directly from how well he suits Valhalla Golf Club and make him a nice contrarian target at the price. I have a feeling most gamers aren't going to want to go back after a middling Masters performance. 

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Under-The-Radar: The LIV talk won't die yet, as Dustin Johnson ended up grading as one of the more intriguing targets on the board. 

Sites like BetOnline saw a significant shift in the outright total, raising it to 90/1 early on Monday. While I am not sure we ever get another victory from him, that was a price I couldn't ignore.

I will take a shot here with both his outright and DFS prices after the handful of disappoints we have gotten from him recently. For what it is worth, the last time my model liked him this much was when he landed sixth at the 2022 Open Championship. 

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Good Chalk: Byeong Hun An is trending with back-to-back top-four finishes. 

An's ninth-place grade when combining bunker + rough play from a second shot possesses legit top-10 upside this week, especially when you realize he ranks inside the top-12 for both distance and iron play. 

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

One of my head-to-head plays this week is Lucas Glover -120 over Adam Hadwin.

 

$5,000 Options to Consider

 

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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