Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 7)

As you know by now, I like to take a look around MLB as we head into the weekend and see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

(data through 5/9)

Jake Cronenworth (12)

After coming second in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2020, followed by two consecutive All-Star appearances in 2021 and 2022, Jake Cronenworth had quite a disappointing season in 2023. It is nice to see his name popping up again in various statistical conversations this season. The 30-year-old is in the midst of a 12-game hit streak that includes five multi-hit performances (totaling 11 such efforts on the year) along with six doubles and three home runs. He's currently barreling the ball at a career-high rate (10.6%), and also has a career-best wOBA (.374) and wRC+ (149).

Jake Cronenworth SOLO HOME RUN (6)#LetsGoPadres pic.twitter.com/sUmYZzVBCq

— San Diego Strong (@PadresStrong) May 4, 2024

Max Kepler (11)

Max Kepler is on quite the heater right now, with the second-longest hit streak in the majors but hitting a scorching .447 during that stretch with six doubles and three home runs. He's clearly seeing the ball well, as evidenced by his 6:4 BB:K during the streak. It hasn't been just the last 11 games, either. Since coming off the IL on April 22, Kepler has hit safely in 15 of 16 games. The 31-year-old is slashing .329/.390/.562 with a .411 wOBA and 169 wRC+ in 2024. Coming off a productive season in 2023 with 24 HRs and 124 wRC+, it's somewhat confounding that he's rostered in just 38% of Yahoo leagues.

pic.twitter.com/24WX406Nhi
Max Kepler hits a solo shot (3) to give the Twins a 10-1 lead.

— MLB Updates (@MLBNews1234) May 9, 2024

Ketel Marte (10) and Nathaniel Lowe (6)

This is just a blurb to point out that, while Ketel Marte has the third-longest streak right now, he's got just a .268 average with 11 hits during the stretch. On the other hand, Nathaniel Lowe has a six-game hit streak going, four games less than Marte, but has a .440 average during his stretch with 11 hits as well. So while he's lower on the list here, I'd say Lowe is the hotter bat right now.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 5/8)

Jonah Heim (.500)

Jonah Heim has the highest batting average over the last seven days; however, just one of his 12 hits has gone for extra bases. At least there have been eight runs batted in and 10 runs scored, plus a solid 5:2 BB:K. Coming off a 95-RBI campaign, Heim is having a nice encore. Hopefully the 28-year-old can keep it up, although it's worth noting his xBA is quite a bit lower than his actual BA (.300 vs .241).

Josh Rojas (.440)

There are some other interesting names on this list, but we already talked about Kepler and we'll talk about Rooker below. So we'll touch briefly on Josh Rojas, who has been hitting leadoff for the Mariners and, along with the high batting average, has been a solid value play for DFS recently. The 29-year-old could be a nice value going forward as well as he's also a threat on the basepaths, stealing as many as 23 in 2022 over 125 games.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 5/8)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Shea Langeliers (.667)

Quick shout out to Max Muncy, but moving down the list, Shea Langeliers had a nice week, with a double, three home runs, and *rubs eyes, looks again* two triples?! Not that these things can be perfectly timed in most cases, and Connor Wong had a fine seven days as well, but in last week's article, Langeliers was listed as an xBA underperformer. So, I mentioned that "the bold move off of this information would be to pivot off Wong and into Langeliers."

Bangeliers back at it 👏 pic.twitter.com/xg4mS5bO4L

— Oakland A's (@Athletics) May 8, 2024

As I mentioned last week, he won't hit for a high average, but his xBA indicated he was underperforming relative to his sub-.200 BA. That still appears to be the case as of now, so there could still be room for this hot streak to run.

Brent Rooker (.577)

With a 30-homer season in 2023 powered by a 15.6% Barrel%, you already know the power is for real. This past week, Brent Rooker put it on full display, though, smacking three doubles and four home runs while walking just as much as he struck out (5:5). Rooker's barrel rate of 17.2% foretells more extra-base hits to come, likely in the form of home runs, with the Athletics playing like a competitive team that should also mean RBI and runs scored, too. Backing that up, the 29-year-old had 11 RBI and 10 runs scored the past seven days as well.

Brent Rooker crushes his 9th homer of the season to pad the @Athletics lead! pic.twitter.com/ETtz6WJjwQ

— MLB (@MLB) May 8, 2024

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Jose Caballero (5)

You might have heard that Jose Caballero had a four-steal game earlier this week, which gives him five in the past seven days, but make no mistake, Caballero has been doing it all season. The 27-year-old is in a three-way tie for second most (14) in 2024 with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Brice Turang. He's gone cold with the bat over the past week but was able to coax six walks compared to just four strikeouts. He's keeping himself fantasy-relevant while doing everything he can to hold onto the starting SS job for the Rays with Junior Caminero and Amed Rosario potentially looming.

(Update: Turang moves into sole possession of second place with his 15th stolen base on Thursday.)

xBA Underachievers

(data through 5/8, minimum 50 AB)

Below are the hitters who have the biggest difference between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

For those wondering, last week Brandon Nimmo was on here (again). Since then, he's riding a six-game hit streak and has home runs in each of his last two games. For what it's worth, he's still got a big discrepancy between BA and xBA, so there could be more to come. Shea Langeliers was also listed here and went bananas over the past week. I don't necessarily see the same happening for the two mentioned below, so read on to find out why.

Colt Keith (.162 vs .237)

Not everyone comes into the league and hits the ground running like Ronald Acuna Jr., and so it has been a rough go to begin Colt Keith's major league career, hitting .162 over the first month of the season. If there is a glimmer of hope that the 22-year-old will turn it around, even if just marginally, then perhaps his xBA is that glimmer. With an xBA 75 points higher than his actual batting average and a very low BABIP (.198), coupled with a solid contact rate (79.1%) and low strikeout rate (17.2%), there's reason to believe that Keith will be able to get on some sort of a roll in the coming weeks.

A two-run single from Colt Keith means we're now all tied up! #RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/RaEnIyb81O

— Bally Sports Detroit (@BallySportsDET) May 8, 2024

Nolan Gorman (.175 vs .232)

While Nolan Gorman didn't hit for a high average last season (.236), it was certainly better than the .175 he's carrying right now. The lefty also swatted 27 home runs in just 119 games with a 21.6 HR/FB%, which made the low batting average palatable. However, in 2024, Gorman's HR/FB% is just 14.3%, and sitting against lefties has made him nearly unrosterable as surely most managers can find similar or better RBI and run-scoring production on the waiver wire. Unlike Colt Keith, the 23-year-old's 64.6% Contact% and 33.6% K% don't give me confidence he's going to right the ship anytime soon, either.

xBA Overachievers

We'll touch on a couple of hitters who will probably come back to Earth soon. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Orlando Arcia made this section a couple times and continued to hit... until he didn't. The 2023 All-Star was hitting .309 through April 27, but has since cooled off, going 5-for-32 (.156) over his last nine games. He is now hitting .270 on the year. Will the same happen for the hitter below?

Isaac Paredes  (.300 vs .242)

Isaac Paredes is having a productive season for the Rays, with a .300-8-20-18-0 line through the first 35 games. His .310 BABIP is high for him (career .245), so perhaps some of his elevated batting average can be attributed to luck. He continues to make solid contact (82.2% Contact%) as he's done throughout his career and has also reduced his K% significantly thus far (15.3% vs. 18.2% in 2023). So, while there may be a dip in BA coming, it seems plausible that he could hit better than he did last season and finish somewhere in the .260-range. With a .396 wOBA and 163 wRC+, it could be his best season yet.

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