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Andrew Ball breaks down four 2024 training camp battles at the running back position that can change the fantasy football landscape.
Many long, hot summer days are ahead. But, before we know it, training camps will be kicking off across the country.
Within those camps, players will jostle for future playing time. One of the more important battles to watch, at least for fantasy football managers, is at the running back position. The starters for many teams are seemingly set. Others not as much. There's also a handful of backup roles to be determined.
Below, we dive into four of the running back training camp battles to keep track of later this summer.
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Ezekiel Elliott vs. Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
2,605 carries and 8,904 yards versus 96 carries and 385 yards. A former first-round pick versus an undrafted player. The résumés are wildly favored in one direction.
But we're a long way removed from Ezekiel Elliott leading the league in rushing yards per game three seasons in a row. The Dallas Cowboys gave up on their former face of the franchise last year and opted to give Tony Pollard the reigns. Pollard departed for his hometown team, the Tennessee Titans, this spring. Jerry Jones seemed hellbent on selecting a running back in the NFL Draft (mainly Jonathon Brooks) but never got the chance. Teams took the picks of the litter. When the seventh round wrapped up, Rico Dowdle remained atop the depth chart.
So, the Cowboys' brass looked at their depth chart and (panicked?) brought back Elliott after his one-year stint in New England. Elliott finished as the RB7 in PPR formats from Weeks 14 through 18, coinciding with Rhamondre Stevenson sitting out. But his fantasy points were racked up on volume alone. He was far from an efficient running back. Zeke averaged 3.5 yards per carry (topping four YPC once in his starts), logged one breakaway run, and somehow registered -55.3 expected points added. A 12% target share and 51 receptions (5.4 receptions per game in his starts) continually salvaged his fantasy numbers.
What's preventing Elliott from winning on volume alone again in 2024? The Cowboys, with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, will boast one of the best offenses in football again. Pollard registered 252 carries (seventh in the NFL) and 67 targets (11th) on the NFL's highest-scoring offense. If Elliott repeats his efficiency numbers, that's 882 yards and 52 receptions, plus a handful of one-yard touchdown plunges. It won't be pretty, but he'll be fantasy-relevant.
Zeke and Rico Dowdle are going in round 11/12 of best ball drafts. Get your jokes off - but both worth a shot at that price https://t.co/7pFsQWMmPL
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) May 11, 2024
Of course, that's if he wins the job. Dowdle wasn't spectacular by any means but reached 4.8 yards per touch on his, albeit limited, 106 touches. While not as talented as Elliott, Dowdle has a lot left in the tank as a 25-year-old without a lot of wear and tear. Whoever sits atop the depth chart come Week 1 will be worth starting for fantasy football.
Jonathon Brooks vs. Chuba Hubbard vs. Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
Last offseason, Miles Sanders signed the richest free agency contract for a running back. 432 rushing yards on 129 carries later (3.35 YPC), there's already buzz about Carolina getting out of his contract halfway through the four-year deal.
Drafting Jonathon Brooks with the 46th overall pick is a start to establishing a reliable running game. Brooks was the first runner off the board in April's draft and was viewed by many as the cream of the crop. However, the former Texas Longhorn is recovering from an ACL tear in November, keeping him from participating in Carolina's rookie minicamp. Brooks has stated that he expects to be ready to participate in training camp, but seeing him start slow wouldn't be a surprise.
Will Sanders rebound from his disastrous 2023 campaign and pick up a large chunk of carries? He was, after all, injured during training camp and didn't look like the same 1,000-yard running back that came over from Philadelphia. That allowed Chuba Hubbard to take over as the starter midway through the season, galloping for a career-high 902 yards. The former fourth-round pick is solid, but not spectacular.
Dave Canales to Jonathon Brooks: "The intent of our offense is to run the ball."
— Joe Person (@josephperson) May 10, 2024
Brooks will be the favorite to be the starter if he's game-ready by Week 1. New general manager Dan Morgan and head coach Dave Canales hand-selected him. They were not the decision-makers when Sanders and Hubbard arrived. Canales, as the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, had a -1% pass rate under expectation. The Buccaneers weren't efficient running the rock, averaging a meager 3.4 yards per carry. But Canales stayed committed to the ground game and got his running back, Rachaad White, heavily involved in the aerial attack (64 catches). He'll utilize the running backs to ensure second-year quarterback Bryce Young isn't overwhelmed again, as was the case in his rookie season. Keep an eye on how this backfield battle plays out during training camp.
AJ Dillon vs. MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers
Free agent acquisition Josh Jacobs is the starting running back for the Packers. That's not a question. The backup role is up for grabs.
The Packers seemed content moving on from both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon early in the offseason. After the major free-agent signings came and went, Dillon and the Packers mutually agreed to another go. But there are some unique aspects to Dillon's deal. It's called a four-year qualifying contract and only a fraction of the $2.575 million is counted against the cap. Structuring a contract like that allows the Packers to release Dillon during training camp with little penalty. It's almost as if the team didn't enjoy his 3.4 yards per carry in 2023 and only brought him back as insurance if they didn't invest in a rookie running back in April.
But they did, adding USC's MarShawn Lloyd in the third round. Some pundits viewed Lloyd, not Brooks, as the best back in the draft, but he does have fumble concerns. If he can secure the ball more often, Lloyd could quickly become the backup to Jacobs.
MarShawn Lloyd up the seam out of pony. I’m sure MLF & Steno are already thinking about ways to use Lloyd & Jacobs in 2 back sets. Posting this for you @DustyEvely @BenFennell_NFL pic.twitter.com/JPVeiZuwbB
— Andy Herman (@AndyHermanNFL) May 7, 2024
Aaron Jones was in and out of the lineup early in the Packers' season. When he was active, Dillon split the snap counts. Dillon was on the field for 56 percent of the snaps through Week 14 (Jones missed six games in that stretch). Matt LaFleur tends to deploy two backs, sometimes during the same play. Expect the running back that wins the backup job to be insurance for Jacobs at worst, and at best an integral part of the ascending Green Bay offense.
Trey Sermon vs. Evan Hull vs. Tyler Goodson, Indianapolis Colts
The most unheralded position battle of the article, the race is on to find a new backup in Indianapolis. Before you scoff, remember Jonathan Taylor's lengthy injury history. One of these unproven runners could be the sleeper of the season.
“It was a solid year at the running back position. There wasn’t as much depth as usual at that position. But it is one that I think over time, between now and the season, and we like what we got.” - Chris Ballad, Indianapolis Colts' GM
The Colts opted not to add a direct replacement for Zack Moss in the NFL Draft. The veteran signed a two-year deal with the Cincinnati Bengals this offseason after an up-and-down tenure in blue and white. Moss dashed for nearly 800 yards and seven total touchdowns in 14 games (eight starts). He ended the season as the Colts' leading rusher on similar efficiency to Taylor (4.3 yards per carry versus Taylor's 4.4).
When Taylor is healthy, there's zero question about who is the bellcow. Unfortunately, he's missed six and seven games in the last two seasons, respectively. In the six contests in which Taylor sat and Moss played in 2023, Moss averaged 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game. That's a top-2o running back. Ideally, Taylor plays 17 games for the first time since he became the NFL's 2021 rushing champion. That's a big ask for any running back, let alone one with injury concerns.
Trey Sermon, Evan Hull, and Tyler Goodson have a combined 92 career carries. Sermon, the back with the best draft capital, owns 78 of them. He's also on his third team in four seasons. Hull, a fifth-round pick by the Colts last offseason, showed promise as a pass catcher during training camp but played in just one game before a torn meniscus ended his season. Goodson averaged 6.7 yards per carry in limited carries (13).
Will the winner of the illustrious title of depth chart backup be one of the top insurance backs in fantasy football, or will it become a committee approach if Taylor misses time? It will probably be the latter but the committee leader will at least hold flex appeal. The Indianapolis offense could be on the cusp of being mentioned among the NFL's elite if rookie Anthony Richardson stays on the field and continues developing as a passer.
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