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Some of fantasy football’s favorite receivers might not put up the numbers in 2024 that they did in 2023 and past years, and it is because they will not have the opportunities to catch passes they used to.
Just like a hitter in baseball is dependent upon the amount of plate appearances he gets, a receiver in football is dependent upon the amount of times he is targeted by his quarterback. Receivers sometimes have no control over how many targets they see on a weekly basis. If they are in a run-first offense, their targets will take a hit. If they share the field with other talented teammates who can catch, their target total will drop. And if they DON’T have many talented pass-catching teammates, then they will get double-covered by defenses and thrown to less.
The upcoming NFL season might cause some of fantasy football’s finest receivers to see 20-30 fewer passes then they are used to. Here is a look at four veteran wide receivers who are set to lose targets in 2024.
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Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Allen used to be a target bully during his long tenure with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers. Philip Rivers would always throw to him first and foremost when he was helming the offense, and nothing changed once Justin Herbert took over as the franchise cornerstone. Allen accounted for an astounding 141 targets per year over the past seven seasons. That is why he caught 100 passes or more five times during that seven-year stretch.
The problem for Allen now is he has switched uniforms. He is no longer the Chargers’ top target. He is part of an ultra-talented supergroup of pass-catchers with the Chicago Bears. DJ Moore is a 1,000-yard guy who will get his targets. 2024 ninth pick Rome Odunze will get targets. The tight end twosome of Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett will get theirs, too. I can certainly see Allen getting 100-120 targets, but not the 140-160 like he used to with the Chargers.
Allen is unlikely to haul in 100 passes unless Moore gets hurt or the Bears decide to make QB Caleb Williams throw 45 times per game. He might have a better chance of making the NFL playoffs, but Allen has less of a chance of helping you make your fantasy playoffs.
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Everyone knows Diggs always wants the ball, especially his quarterbacks. He gave Josh Allen and Buffalo offensive coordinators ear beatings when he felt like he was not involved enough in the offense, and his target demands were well-known during his days in Minnesota as well. Diggs averaged an ungodly 161 targets per season during his four-year run with the Bills, which led to him being a perennial top-10 fantasy receiver.
Diggs’ big mouth and declining play got him traded in the offseason to the Houston Texans. That will not work wonders for his target total. The talented WR pair of Nico Collins and Tank Dell each averaged seven targets per contest last season, while veteran tight end Dalton Schultz averaged six per game.
Diggs never had this kind of competition for targets when he was with Buffalo since the rest of the receiving corps was underwhelming. There is no way he will have 160 C.J. Stroud passes thrown his way in 2024. He should be happy to get 115-125.
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
While most Panthers had little-to-no fantasy value whatsoever during their dreadful 2-15 season in 2023, Thielen was one of the few bright spots. He had a career resurgence in his first year away from the Minnesota Vikings, catching 103 passes for 1,014 yards largely because he had his highest target total (137) since 2018.
Quarterback Bryce Young leaned heavily on Thielen throughout his rookie campaign since the veteran wideout was the only Panthers pass-catcher Young could trust. Thielen will not be the only trustworthy pass-catcher for Young in 2024, though.
34 year old Adam Thielen?? https://t.co/WERTVUT4XG
— Falcons are so unserious (@_DJ_Scott) May 1, 2024
Carolina traded for former Pittsburgh Steelers stalwart Diontae Johnson, then used its first-round pick on wide receiver Xavier Legette and its fourth-round pick on tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders. Johnson has averaged 126 targets per season during his career and will certainly cut deeply into Thielen’s targets. The rookies will get their looks, too. Look for Thielen’s target number and fantasy value to decline.
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
Meyers thrived as Las Vegas’s No. 2 WR last season. Even though he played second fiddle to top target Davante Adams, he was able to muster a career-high 71 receptions and eight touchdowns. Meyers also had his third consecutive season with 800 receiving yards and suited up for 16 games in his first year as a Raider. He really showed he could be a solid No. 2 WR in the NFL and did it with underwhelming quarterback play from the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo, Aidan O'Connell, and Brian Hoyer.
Las Vegas selected tight end standout Brock Bowers in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft. Coupling Bowers with 2023 second-round pick Michael Mayer will give the Raiders one of the most exciting tight end pairs in the NFL, and that will surely slice into Meyers’ target total.
Throw in adding veteran receivers Michael Gallup and Jalen Guyton on one-year deals and now the Raiders receiver room has gotten crowded. Adams will not be the one losing his target share to these new pass-catching additions, Meyers will. Another 800-yard year is probably not in the offing for Mr. Meyers.
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