RADIO
Way too much time has already passed in this 2024 UFL campaign -- I really wish we still had another 10 weeks left. If you rode with me on my picks last week, we did alright at 5-3. The UFL did alright for itself last week too with some fantastic TV numbers, which is always encouraging to see.
This week, the game on everyone's mind is the potential preview of the UFL Championship Game, but we've also got a Texas rivalry game and a playoff spot still very much up for grabs between the San Antonio Brahmas and DC Defenders. Injuries are becoming a bigger factor by the day, as now Frank Ginda, arguably the best defensive player for the Michigan Panthers (and in the entire league), is out for the season.
The more injuries that teams are dealing with, the more that any late-season acquisitions could mean for the rest of the year, and who knows what the mental state is like for the league's bottom-dwellers. We have some very questionable choices being made this week as far as who a couple of teams are starting at QB and thank the heavens that we have another week with four games being played at four separate times -- because the evidence should be telling the league and network executives not to do that if you want to get the ratings you were hoping for. So, with that, let's get hyped for the most anticipated week yet of UFL action and get down to business projecting how these games will go down.
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Power Rankings
- Birmingham Stallions (+105)
- St. Louis Battlehawks (+155--these top two futures for the UFL title now appear like the only two that make sense)
- Michigan Panthers (+900 -- reasonable, but with Frank Ginda out for the year?)
- San Antonio Brahmas (+800 -- I still like what I see more from this team than from DC moving forward)
- DC Defenders (+1300 -- still alive, but I'm still not buying it)
- Arlington Renegades (+30000 -- how unlucky can one team get?)
- Memphis Showboats (+18000 -- nope)
- Houston Roughnecks (+18000 -- nope)
Week 7 Picks
Memphis Showboats at Arlington Renegades (Saturday, May 11, at 1 p.m. ET)
Arlington (-6.5), Over 45.5
I say it again -- how unlucky could a team possibly get? The Arlington Renegades have had several games like this now. If they had won the games that they lost to the Defenders and Panthers alone, they would be sitting very much in postseason contention with wins over two quality teams. Now, the unthinkable happened, and Arlington sits winless after its Week 6 loss to Michigan. It had the win in its grasp, and it slipped through its fingers due to yet another Jake Bates game-winner.
Sal Cannella and De'Veon Smith had solid outings last week, and without Dae Dae Hunter in Week 7, the Renegades have added 2023 Orlando Guardian Devin Darrington to the backfield -- a move that I am a fan of. I actually think that this is a much more desperate situation for Memphis. Now 1-5 without a win since Week 1, the Showboats will be starting Troy Williams this week over Case Cookus. That will probably render many of their top pass-catchers far less effective in this matchup. I simply do not trust John DeFilippo to use Williams correctly when your offense is struggling to this extent but Darius Victor is only getting the ball 11 times. Based on their offensive peripherals, they probably scored more points than they should've last week against the Stallions.
Memphis has the worst defense in the UFL, but Arlington has not fared much better. That, and that alone, is the reason that the over could hit. I have no idea how the Showboats will end up scoring, but if they found a way to put 21 on Birmingham, it stands to reason that they could produce a similar number against Arlington. This game is at Choctaw Stadium, and this has got to be the one that Bob Stoops secures.
I think Luis Perez is going to zip all over the Boats defense and I expect the Renegades to score in the neighborhood of 25-29 points. I think they take this game by at least a touchdown, with the Showboats scoring between 16-21 points. There is a narrow margin here to hit on both of those, but I think laying with the Renegades and taking the over are the way to go.
St. Louis Battlehawks at Birmingham Stallons (Saturday, May 11, at 4 p.m. ET)
Birmingham (-4.5), Over 47.5
This game has all of the makings of a heavyweight title fight. An 11-1 combined record between the best team from each conference on the home turf of the best franchise in spring football, and in A.J. McCarron's return to the state of Alabama. This game might not have the highest stakes for Birmingham in the grand scheme of things, but it won't be hard to find motivation because you know this game means a lot to Stallions fans and the St. Louis Battlehawks as a whole.
Last week, Birmingham trounced Memphis 39-21 in another game where everybody ate from offense to defense, and Adrian Martinez had an absolutely monster game passing. It continues to do what it does, week in and week out. St. Louis had some unusual struggles last week against the solid Roughnecks defense -- A.J. McCarron and Hakeem Butler shared a devastating connection for another week and Jahcour Pearson remains an amazing secondary weapon, but the running game got completely stifled, as Wayne Gallman and Jacob Saylors combined for just 28 yards on 11 carries.
If this was happening in St. Louis, I'd be way more inclined to say that the Battlehawks could catch Birmingham here (and the title game will be in St. Louis). In Birmingham, even McCarron's homecoming won't stop the crowd from giving the Stallions a significant boost in a game that could be seen by a lot of people on Fox.
The Battlehawks defense is nowhere near the level of Birmingham's, even with injuries to the secondary, and the Stallion offense is no one-trick pony (pun very much intended). I have no doubt that Skip Holtz will be able to accomplish whatever he wants to on offense, but if St. Louis is limited on the ground again, its passing game won't be enough to pull the upset or keep it within five. I could see a final score range here anywhere from 30-21 to 38-27. So lay the points once again with the Birmingham Stallions, and take the over even if it gets up to 50.5.
Michigan Panthers at DC Defenders (Sunday, May 12, at 12 p.m. ET)
D.C. (-1.5), Under 42.5
With Memphis and Houston struggling so badly, it is hard to judge just how motivated the Michigan Panthers might be for the rest of the regular season -- but we do know this: you do not want to be up by three or less against Michigan when they have the ball and little time left on the clock. They escaped from the jaws of defeat in Week 6, depriving the Arlington Renegades of their first win of the campaign. Jake Bates went 5-of-5 on field-goal attempts, which really helped to make up for the surprisingly poor backfield production and lacking accuracy from QB Danny Etling (though he had a solid game on the ground).
I am not overly concerned that Wes Hills and Matt Colburn II won't be able to get back on track in Week 7 -- I am, however, concerned that in Etling's absence, Mike Nolan has opted to start Michigan State product and NFL practice squad veteran Brian Lewerke over Bryce Perkins (2020-2022 with the L.A. Rams and a Super Bowl ring).
As for the DC Defenders -- I don't know. This is a team that seems to leave a lot of points on the board, and while its defense is usually solid, there is not an offensive category that it is really excelling in at the moment. It seems like Jordan Ta'amu's outings are getting increasingly underwhelming, but perhaps there is hope in the backfield duo of Darius Hagans and Cam'Ron Harris.
I would much rather the Panthers start Perkins at QB (opting for home-state favorites has bitten them before), and I don't think it will be too much trouble for the Defenders defense to cause problems for Lewerke if they made things so hard on Quinten Dormady last week. I think Hills and Colburn will have a fine day, and I have no idea what will be clicking for the DC Defenders, but if they don't get blown out, they seem to end up in a lot of close games.
This is a matchup where I am giving a solid swing to the Defenders in their fantastic home environment. All I know is that I will be sweating profusely if they are holding on to a two-point lead with 50 seconds left. The Defenders have been inconsistent enough on offense, and I have enough questions about the Panthers offense this week for me to opt for under 42.5. I see a final score range of 16-14 to 20-17 for DC.
San Antonio Brahmas at Houston Roughnecks (Sunday, May 12, at 3 p.m. ET)
San Antonio (-3.5), Under 38.5
This Houston Roughnecks squad is venturing into reality show status. Mark Thompson is on the depth chart this week behind T.J. Pledger, but who knows how Thompson will be used with his status with Houston still seemingly up in the air? Houston's backfield tandem had a decent game last week against St. Louis -- Reid Sinnett struggled, and this week, Jarrett Guarantano is getting the start. What? Why? How? Sinnett has actually had a pretty good run and has been a bright spot for this Roughnecks offense, so this move is a bit discouraging for their chances this week.
The good news for Houston is that their defense remains formidable. The Brahmas had a real clunker in Week 6, falling to DC 18-12. Granted, this one was at Audi Field, and they ended up 1-1 against their XFL foe for the regular season. The aforementioned Quinten Dormady had a bad game. I don't think that I would be excited to hear that Kevin Hogan was replacing Dormady at any point, but I would be very intrigued if they gave recently signed rookie Jayden de Laura a go. The best thing for San Antonio last week was its commitment to the run game, as John Lovett gained 153 yards on 23 carries.
In another Texas vs. Texas matchup, I think this feels like the right timing for a get-right game for San Antonio. I think that John Lovett and Morgan Ellison might be hampered a bit in this game due to Houston's strong defensive front. They still managed well against DC last week and I do think that Houston's secondary leaves room for Dormady to get back to his electrifying style of play. Even though it won't be at home in the Alamodome, it will be at Houston...which means that only about 7,000 fans will be there cheering against San Antonio.
I do not trust Jarrett Guarantano over Reid Sinnett, I do not trust Mark Thompson's place on this team, and I do not trust that T.J. Pledger and the defense will be enough to keep this game close. I think San Antonio scores between 19 and 24 points, and I think that the Roughnecks put up between 10-17 or 20. With those projections, I am laying the points with San Antonio and going under.
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