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Andrew Ball looks at Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell's fantasy outlook for the 2024 season. Where is Adonai Mitchell worth drafting in redraft and dynasty leagues?
A debate breaks out at the bar: Is Adonai Mitchell a great NFL prospect?
You point to his elite athleticism score at the NFL Combine. Your friend discusses his lack of finesse and consistency in his routes. The eavesdropping bartender points out that Mitchell never missed the College Football Playoff in his collegiate career, showing that he brings a winning element to a roster. The far-from-sober regular across the room mentions that he wasn’t the top receiving option in Georgia or Texas.
The reality is that all of those reasons, to various extents, factored into Mitchell’s second-round draft capital. He did, however, land with a potentially blossoming offense under second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson.
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College Production
There have not been very many wide receivers that have entered the NFL with Mitchell’s blend of speed and size. His 4.34 40-yard dash time trailed only his college teammate Xavier Worthy and LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. for wide receivers in this draft class. He measured in at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds. Unfortunately for him, there are very few cases of receivers with that speed and weight who have succeeded in the league. Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf is essentially the only exception.
Mitchell flashes the ability to beat coverage with his athletic attributes. Mitchell scored twice on three catches against Alabama and future top draft picks Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry. That's NFL against NFL talent. However, there was seemingly less intensity in low-profile matchups.
Scoring touchdowns was rarely an issue. Mitchell snagged 11 of them, often displaying his dynamic footwork and size in the red zone. He was largely uninvolved outside the red zone and the occasional deep pass. Mitchell caught more than three passes in just four of his 14 games last season. In three out of those four games, he topped 100 receiving yards (the lone exception was the CFP Semifinal against Washington). When he's locked in, he is as talented as any wide receiver in this draft.
In his two-year tenure at Georgia, Mitchell was largely outplayed by fellow second-round pick Ladd McConkey, although the latter dealt with a lingering ankle issue in his second season. Between McConkey and first-round tight end Brock Bowers, Mitchell was, at best, the third option in the passing game. It was a similar story in Texas’ capital, where Mitchell competed for targets with Worthy.
Adonai Mitchell playing alongside Xavier Worthy
[ 18.1% Target Share ]
[ 1.78 Yards per Team Pass Attempt ]Xavier Worthy playing alongside Adonai Mitchell
[ 25.1% Target Share ]
[ 2.14 Yards per Team Pass Attempt ]yet Mitchell is projected to be drafted HIGHER than Worthy pic.twitter.com/cqHUp0Gw3w
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) April 23, 2024
Regardless of where Mitchell fell in the pecking order at Georgia or Texas, he made winning plays. Mitchell contributed to back-to-back national championships for the Bulldogs and scored in all four playoff games. In his lone season in Austin, the Longhorns made their debut in football’s final four. To the surprise of nobody, he continued his CFP scoring streak.
Rookie Year Situation
Could Mitchell again show up on the NFL’s biggest stage? The Colts were nearly a playoff team in 2023 and are constructing a roster that rivals other AFC playoff teams.
Mitchell should essentially replace Alec Pierce in the Indianapolis offense. Michael Pittman Jr. is the alpha and will be drafted as a top-12 fantasy football wideout. He’s developed into one of the best route runners in the NFL. Josh Downs strung together respectable games in the first half of his rookie season but faded quickly down the stretch. Whether Downs or Mitchell emerges as second fiddle to Pittman, the duo shouldn’t compete for playing time, only targets. Downs operated out of the slot on 610 of his 828 snaps last season. Mitchell was primarily an outside receiver in college.
We still don't know what kind of passer Anthony Richardson will be as a professional. Injuries (notably a season-ending one to his throwing shoulder) shut down his debut season after just 84 pass attempts. Fifty of those passes were completed for a mediocre 59.5% completion rating. Richardson is reportedly healthy and will participate in OTAs but we can't yet rely on him to routinely connect with Mitchell on deep passes. If Mitchell doesn't get open early in his route, Richardson may as well take off running, the more notable aspect of his game.
Anthony Richardson has two rushing TDs less than six minutes into the game!
📺: #INDvsHOU on FOX⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/FhXtx7w3wW pic.twitter.com/QfJYDVcoD2
— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2023
Like any deep ball threat, Pierce was consistent... in not delivering large quantities of fantasy points. Pierce averaged fewer than two receptions per game and only put up the points when securing a long touchdown reception. Again, they aren't a one-to-one replica of each other. Mitchell is far more talented on paper and can excel in other areas when he shows the proper motivation.
Fantasy Outlook
Simply put, Mitchell may be a better real-life football player than a fantasy asset. He's not a reliable winner against zone defenses (1.75 yards per route run, 15.2% target share), relies on his body to secure passes despite a strong set of hands, and needs bulk yardage on limited reception numbers. All signs point to Mitchell being a boom-or-bust wide receiver. The potential for booms will help unlock Richardson and the Indianapolis offense. The potential for busts could, in turn, doom fantasy managers who start Mitchell.
Mitchell is better suited as a second option in this league. The ideal landing spot would have been a team with an established quarterback that also needed a second wide receiver (division rival Jacksonville comes to mind if they passed on Brian Thomas Jr.). Richardson may be locked in the Colts' plans, but passing and injury question marks remain. In his two complete games as a rookie, his second receiver didn't get anywhere close to a top-36 finish. In his Week 4 contest against the Rams, Richardson didn't provide a wideout with a top-60 placement.
Depending on players who rely on deep-ball receptions is a fool's errand. Fantasy managers who have rostered Gabe Davis anytime over the course of his career understand. Even one of the most prolific boom-or-bust wideouts since the turn of the millennium, DeSean Jackson, had his frustrating outings. That's not to say that Mitchell only profiles as a boom-or-bust wide receiver, that's just his MO right now. He has the time and skillset to blossom into an all-around, elite talent. But if he doesn't improve his consistency and refine his strengths and weaknesses, he could remain a what-if for an all-time athlete.
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