2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Course Preview and Breakdown for TPC Craig Ranch

I would describe this point in the PGA Tour season as the mid-afternoon nap. The general lack of pop in terms of course design, tournament format, and field strength has created a natural rest stop before we go full steam ahead into Major Championship summer. That said, there is no rest for the weary over here at Rotoballer, as we look to capitalize on a sleepy week in the DFS Lobbies and sportsbook counters. On tap this week is TPC Craig Ranch, set to play host to this event for the fourth consecutive year.

I wanted to use this piece to hopefully highlight a few different angles and elements that may be less spoken about to provide some value in this course preview.  It's not a golf course that is going to appeal to those with a keen eye on course architecture, but nonetheless, it's shown its cards so we know exactly what to expect and how to attack this tournament. We are going to dive into great detail in an attempt to digest the statistical data and historical stats to create actionable info for you to utilize for building lineups and making your bets for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. Let's do it!

An Introduction to the Course

2004 must have been a big year for TPC courses opening in the South because, for the second consecutive week, the PGA Tour will stop at course that opened for play in 2004. This week, however, we have a relatively non-descript Tom Weiskopf design that has garnered a fair amount of criticism from both players and the media for being unmemorable. After bouncing around like a tumbleweed in Texas, this tournament finally settled into TPC Craig Ranch, located just outside the Dallas-Fort Worth area, in 2020.

Before hosting a regular PGA Tour event, TPC Craig Ranch hosted US Open Qualifiers and Korn Ferry events. The course was comprised on a massive piece of property in McKinney, TX and is built with a gentle roll that meanders along a creek that runs through the course in several spots. Rowlett Creek, as it has been coined, comes into play on 14 holes throughout the course. The layout features a decent blend of wooded areas and water hazards, but for the most part it is heavily reliant upon afternoon Texas winds to play defense against the professional player.

The fairways are wide and the greens are large in size, creating a pretty straightforward task for elite players. Let's get right to the point...this course is easy. They tried to prevent players from eclipsing -25 under par last year by transforming the easy par-5 12th hole into a long par-4. With the greens being flat, the goal at TPC Craig Ranch is to pile up as many chances from inside 20 ft for birdie as you possibly can to keep pace with the leaders.

If it weren't for players wanting to honor the legacy of Byron Nelson and play in front of local fans in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, I believe this tournament would struggle to attract any top names on the golf course alone. With this type of field, combined with a less-than-challenging course layout, long shots are definitely LIVE at an event like this one.

Recent Winners:

2021: KH Lee

2022: KH Lee

2023: Jason Day

Scorecard

Course Specs

TPC Craig Ranch has ranked inside the top-5 easiest courses on the schedule in each of the three years in which it has hosted this tournament. I will note that the front nine is significantly easier than the back nine. The front features three par-4s which play less than 430 yards in the first six holes that players absolutely tear apart. In the final round of the 2023 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, only ONE hole on the front nine played over par, and it was by .02!

The greens run at around 11.5 on the stimpmeter and average 6,778 sq ft. which is large by PGA Tour standards. We are however back on Bent Grass, so they roll extremely true, which is part of the reason why it is one of the lowest 3-putt percentage events despite having such large surfaces. They also have very little movement because they are in part meant to be playable for amateurs who often have to deal with putting in the whipping Texas afternoon winds.

Statistical Considerations

First and foremost, you are going to want to take a deep dive into birdie or better performance for players. I would take that one step further and filter it with easy scoring conditions. These type of events take a different kind of mindset. It is gas pedal to the floor and you have to be in attack-mode early and often. It's been a little while as we just moved through the Florida swing, which is tough, and the Masters and Heritage are not great comps. I am going to go back to some of the events early on this season to see how players performed when they understood the assignment of going low!

I'm not overly concerned with the total driving this week, but more so taking a look at approach numbers with mid-to-long irons. Take a look into proximity to the hole numbers from 175-250 yards and recent player performance as a good indicator. Nearly 46% of approach shots last season came from this combined range at TPC Craig Ranch. The players who can be proficient with a 4-iron to a 7-iron, particularly in gusty conditions, are going to have a major advantage for this event.

Sticking your long irons is only half of the battle, now you must pay it off with a birdie. I'm putting a heavier-than-average emphasis on strokes gained putting, and honing in on the numbers from the range of 8-20 ft. That is the range in which you can separate from the field in weeks where every player in pounding greens in regulation consistently. Here is a look behind the curtain at my stat model this week and how the top 10 players in the field are ranked.

Also, if you are looking for more insight on the course setup and stat correlations this week, I would highly recommend checking out this other piece from Team Rotoballer, Scouting the Routing by my pal Ian. It's good stuff that I think is worth your time if you want to look into alternate angles.

After a one-week hiatus for my least favorite event of the season, we're back in full-force for another one of my bottom three😂

Y'all know the drill: Full scouting report on TPC Craig Ranch ⬇️ as well as a couple names I'll be targeting as lines open!

Enjoy! https://t.co/BnPVDQrlln

— Flag Hunting Pod (@flag_hunting) April 29, 2024

Stat Radar Plot for TPC Craig Ranch, via RickRunGood.com:

Best Player Course Fit Rankings for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson:

1. Tom Hoge
2. Keith Mitchell
3. Henrik Norlander
4. Alex Noren
5. Adam Scott
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Mark Hubbard
8. Kelly Kraft
9. Doug Ghim
10. Taylor Montgomery

*Based on last 36 rounds of player data.

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