Expert NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel (4/27/24)

Welcome to the weekend, RotoBallers! We have an exciting four-game slate on tap in the NBA today, starting with the Cavaliers-Magic slugfest (201.5-point implied total) and wrapping up with the potential sweep opportunity in the Nuggets-Lakers (218-point implied total) matchup. The Thunder-Pelicans (209.5-point implied total) affair should be fun, and we'll need to target it as it holds the second-highest total and projected pace on the slate. The Celtics-Heat (204.5-point implied total) showdown is also intriguing after Tyler Herro went Superman mode and carried Miami to a Game 2 steal in Boston.

The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always essential to have a game plan, with the best players and spots circled before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate until lineups lock!

This article will provide my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/27/24. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our excellent NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 PM EST on FanDuel and DraftKings.

I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate, and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.

Today's NBA DFS K-Grades

Today's NBA DFS Core Plays

Let's first look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.

Stop me if you've heard this before: play Nikola Jokic on every slate he's on. Nothing has changed from the regular season, as the two-time MVP still has the highest median and ceiling projection on the slate. We got a bit of a price drop on DraftKings after he put up "only" 58.25 DK points in Game 3, but his 75 and 63.5 DK point showings in the first two games give a glimpse at what's expected here. Don't get cute.

I'm splitting hairs by going with Anthony Davis over LeBron James, but I feel that AD has the more straightforward path to a ceiling game with how the defensive matchups work out. They've both had moments in this series, but I give AD the slight edge as he'll need to battle with Jokic (and win) to continue this series. Lastly, Paolo Banchero is an excellent target in the next salary tier. He started the series with two underwhelming outputs where he didn't rebound and shot poorly from deep, but he followed it up with a 61.5 DK point explosion in Game 3. If he's back to getting a bunch of rebounds and hitting shots, he's underpriced at his current salary.

Top Core Plays:

1. Nikola Jokic vs. LAL - C ($11,200 DK; $12,000 FD)
2. Anthony Davis vs. DEN - C ($9,600 DK; $11,200 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
3. Paolo Banchero vs. CLE - PF ($8,300 DK; $8,600 FD)
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. NOP - PG ($9,100 DK; $10,400 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Value Plays

Using the same premium NBA projections, let's see what players are popping as the best values tonight.

We're stretching the term "value" to mean "mid-range" for this because it's the playoffs, and we don't get free squares. The Lakers needed a third competent player to compete with Denver, and Austin Reaves finally answered the call with 41.75 DK points in Game 3. With D'Angelo Russell struggling, they'll again lean on him as the third option. Jonas Valanciunas is an enigma but a risk worth taking on this slate. He crushed value with 44 and 43 DK points in the first two games, but the vet fell flat with 29.75 DK points in Game 3. The Pelicans would be wise to continue giving him big minutes, though, because the Thunder are subpar at defending opposing bigs (allowed the 11th-most FPPG to Cs).

Michael Porter Jr. has been as consistent as they come through three games, exceeding 5x value while scoring at least 19 points and snagging at least eight rebounds in each contest. He's shooting well, and the all-around nature of his game translates to a solid floor and a median projection that makes lineups work. The Lakers haven't found an answer for Jokic or Murray, so they aren't focused on slowing down MPJ. Lastly, I like Suggs as a contrarian mid-range option on DraftKings. Suggs has been a revelation in the playoffs, averaging 32 DK points per game and reaching 40.5 DK points in the crucial Game 3 win. He won't shoot the lights out again, but he should be able to provide value at his salary.

Top Value Plays:

1. Austin Reaves vs. DEN - PG/SG ($5,900 DK; $6,400 FD)
2. Jonas Valanciunas vs. OKC - C ($6,000 DK; $6,800 FD)
3. Michael Porter Jr. vs. LAL - SF/PF ($6,500 DK; $7,000 FD)
4. Jalen Suggs vs. CLE - PG ($5,500 DK) DraftKings Only
5. Wendell Carter Jr. vs. CLE - C ($4,300 DK; $4,600 FD)

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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard

Reaves and Suggs have already been covered, but I also like taking a few other shots at point guard. Tyler Herro went ballistic to steal Game 2 from the Celtics, finishing with 56.25 DK points on 6-for-11 shooting from deep. He also provided 14 assists, five rebounds, and a steal in the masterful performance. I can't see him reaching those heights today, but the Heat must lean on him to keep this a competitive series. He's too cheap with that in mind. Lastly, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is my top spend-up target in non-Jokic lineups. He's due for a big game, and his DraftKings price has fallen about $1,500 from its peak.

Top PG Options:

1. Austin Reaves vs. DEN ($5,900 DK; $6,400 FD)
2. Jalen Suggs vs. CLE ($5,500 DK) DraftKings Only
3. Tyler Herro vs. ORL ($8,100 DK; $8,200 FD)
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. NOP ($9,100 DK; $10,400 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard

Reaves and Herro also qualify here, and they're my two favorite plays at the shooting guard position. We can also mix and match value players Josh Giddey, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Max Strus. However, I'll only get to that group if I need to save some salary, as I value Reaves and Herro much more on this slate.

Top SG Options:

1. Austin Reaves vs. DEN ($5,900 DK; $6,400 FD)
2. Tyler Herro vs. ORL ($8,100 DK; $8,200 FD)
3. Josh Giddey vs. NOP ($5,600 DK; $5,700 FD)
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope vs. LAL ($4,600 DK; $5,000 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward

It will be hard to fit him if you're getting to any of Jokic, AD, or SGA, but I won't talk anyone off playing LeBron James in a literal must-win contest to avoid losing 12 consecutive games against the Nuggets. I prefer other options today. Michael Porter Jr. was already discussed as a top mid-range option - his consistent production and favorable matchup against the Lakers are tough to pass up.

Lastly, Trey Murphy III is a sneaky play in the mid-range salary tier. He's coming off a brutal 19.25 DK point showing in Game 3, but I'm expecting more along the lines of the 39.5 and 36 DK points he put up to begin the series. The Pelicans need him to be an offensive focal point to compete with Zion Williamson off the floor.

Top SF Options:

1. LeBron James vs. DEN ($9,500 DK; $10,500 FD)
2. Michael Porter Jr. vs. LAL ($6,500 DK; $7,000 FD)
3. Trey Murphy III vs. OKC ($6,600 DK; $7,100 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward

Paolo Banchero is my top target at power forward if my lineup construction allows me to get to him. His 61.5 DK point output in Game 3 opened my eyes, and I think there's a strong chance that this is the type of game we see from the star forward for Orlando moving forward. He shot 13-for-26 from the field (4-for-9 from 3PT) and collected 14 rebounds, five assists, and a steal over 29 minutes. He should see around 40 minutes tonight.

MPJ is another heavy target here, while you can also reach LeBron or Jayson Tatum if you're swerving away from Jokic. Aaron Gordon gets the last shoutout here as he profiles similarly to Porter Jr. He's a mid-range option locked into heavy minutes on a team with Jokic and Jamal Murray. He can get whatever he wants against this Lakers team, and I think he should also be mixed into lineups.

Top PF Options:

1. Paolo Banchero vs. CLE ($8,300 DK; $8,600 FD)
2. LeBron James vs. DEN ($9,500 DK; $10,500 FD)
3. Michael Porter Jr. vs. LAL ($6,500 DK; $7,000 FD)
4. Aaron Gordon vs. LAL ($6,300 DK; $6,700 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center

It's Nikola Jokic. What else do I need to say? He's an absolute monster in daily fantasy formats, which has been the case for about three years straight. His ceiling is unmatched on this slate, and I can't think of any reason why we'd see a letdown performance from him, even with Denver up 3-0 in the series.

I wouldn't advocate pivoting to anyone else at the position, but we'll include a few more because we can play one in the Utility slot on DraftKings. Anthony Davis is my pick to finish second on the slate in raw fantasy points, and he feels slightly underpriced at $9,600 on DraftKings. Wendell Carter Jr. is an intriguing value option, but I wouldn't go too crazy with it. He started Game 3 and played 25 minutes but scored 8.25 DK points. That's scary. However, I'll continue to roll the dice at his salary if he receives another start.

1. Nikola Jokic vs. LAL ($11,200 DK; $12,000 FD)
2. Anthony Davis vs. DEN ($9,600 DK; $11,200 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
3. Wendell Carter Jr. vs. CLE ($4,300 DK; $4,600 FD) Prefer on DraftKings

Today's Top NBA DFS Game Environments

1. Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (218 implied total)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans (209.5 implied total)

Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids

1. I won't be able to have Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, or Jaylen Brown in my lineups today. I will prioritize other high-end players in Jokic, Davis, Banchero, and Herro, preventing me from getting the aforementioned studs.
2. CJ McCollum isn't doing it for me. He's in a weird higher mid-range salary tier, and we need him to reach 36.5 DK points for 5x value, a mark he has only hit once in this series. He's shooting poorly and not contributing enough in the other counting stats for me to believe a better performance is on the horizon - I'd instead take shots on Brandon Ingram, JVal, and Murphy III in this spot.

My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today

Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.

• My favorite overall play: Nikola Jokic
• My favorite CASH play: Nikola Jokic
• My favorite GPP play(s): Jalen Suggs / Tyler Herro / Trey Murphy III
• My favorite value play(s): Jalen Suggs / Michael Porter Jr. 

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