RADIO
The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Talladega this weekend for the Ag-Pro 300. This is the first of two visits to the track for the Xfinity Series this year. Last season, the series was here just once, with Jeb Burton scoring a surprising win.
Last week at Texas Motor Speedway, Sam Mayer earned his first victory of the 2024 season. The win saved Mayer from what looked like a battle to make the playoff on points, as he currently sits just 14th in the standings. Chandler Smith continues to lead, taking a 19-point lead over Cole Custer.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the NASCAR Xfinity Series Ag-Pro 300 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series, including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station. This slate locks on 4/20/24 at 4:18 p.m. EDT.
Xfinity DFS Preview - DraftKings
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analyses to help you set your optimal DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Talladega Race Trends
Talladega is the kind of place where anything can happen. That makes it a lot of fun to watch on television, but the unpredictable pack racing also makes it a frustrating place to play fantasy. You need to really expand your list of potential plays this week, with place differential mattering more than basically anything else.
Last year, we saw Jeb Burton score a surprise win, but that wasn't the only surprise. Brennan Poole got a top-five. Caesar Bacarella, Gray Gaulding, Joey Gase, and Josh Williams all had top 10s. Sammy Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, Josh Berry, Sam Mayer, Justin Allgaier, Chandler Smith, Riley Herbst, and Daniel Hemric all recorded DNFs. Only 19 cars finished the race.
Of course, not every Talladega visit is that chaotic. In the 2022 playoffs, we saw no surprises in the top 15 at all really. A.J. Allmendinger won and the only non-playoff drivers in the top 10 were Landon Cassill in third in a Kaulig car and Parker Kligerman in sixth in the Big Machine car.
But go back to spring 2022 and you get top 10s from Joe Graf Jr., Myatt Snider, and Brett Moffitt, while a number of top drivers crashed out. A "normal" race here is the aberration. Expect chaos. Build your lineup for chaos.
Drivers Who Could Dominate
First, "drivers who could dominate" means something different here. While a number of recent races here have seen one driver lead the most laps and win, other races have seen an absurd amount of lead changes. Last year, Brett Moffitt led the most laps, but that was only 20 laps. He finished 12th.
Let's look at some drivers who can deliver huge DFS scores, either through dominating the race or through place differential.
Austin Hill ($11,500) is the best superspeedway driver in the Xfinity Series right now. The polesitter for Saturday's race has six wins on this kind of track since joining the series. It's worth noting, though, that none of those wins were at Talladega, so this isn't a slam dunk play. I might go a little light on the No. 21 car.
👋🤙✌️@_AustinHill | @RCRracing pic.twitter.com/tjj5zSGuE5
— NASCAR Xfinity (@NASCAR_Xfinity) April 19, 2024
A.J. Allmendinger ($11,000) is always a threat at superspeedways, especially at Talladega. In six Xfinity Series starts here for Kaulig, Allmendinger has a win and three other top 10s, and he's led laps in four of his past five starts at the track.
Jesse Love ($9,500) is a nice pivot off of his teammate, Austin Hill. This is Love's first Xfinity race here, but he won at this track in ARCA last season. This season, he's been fast at this kind of track, leading 34 laps at Daytona and 157 at Atlanta.
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Top Mid-Tier Plays
Brandon Jones ($8,000) starts 23rd. Some really solid place differential upside here with Jones, whose average finish at this track is 16.6. He's finished second at Talladega twice.
Ryan Sieg ($7,600) starts 24th. I love this play because he always seems to run well at Talladega. Sieg has five top 10s here, which includes four top-five finishes. Those top fives have all come in the past six Talladega races, and he's led laps in two consecutive starts here. Plus, he has momentum after coming up just short of his first Xfinity victory last week at Texas.
If you missed it, here’s how close Ryan Sieg was to scoring his first career win, and how narrowly Sam Mayer turned a disappointing year into a Playoff berth. pic.twitter.com/IlnvckzpMQ
— Toby Christie (@Toby_Christie) April 13, 2024
Sam Mayer ($9,000) starts 15th. I think the search for place differential can make people overlook how good plays in the 11-19 range can be. Mayer has crashed out in three of his four Talladega starts, but he finished second the one time that he didn't wreck.
Jeb Burton ($7,100) has a pair of wins here, which happen to also be his only wins in Xfinity. While he's having his worst Xfinity season ever so far, it's hard to ignore the place differential upside of a two-time Talladega winner starting 35th.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Deep Sleepers
Jordan Anderson ($6,700) starts 32nd in the No. 32 car. This whole "deep sleeper" section is just drivers starting outside the top 30 who have a shot to be great plays if things get crazy. Anderson is a skilled superspeedway racer. He has six career top 10s in the Truck Series, with five of those at superspeedways, including two at Talladega. One of his two Xfinity top fives came here as well.
Hailee Deegan ($5,700) starts 31st. Her rookie season in Xfinity hasn't gone great, but her average finish of 25.9 is a decent bit above where she starts. She's never run here in Xfinity but has an average finish of 12.7 at Talladega in the Truck Series.
Ryan Ellis ($5,100) starts 37th. He's been solid this season for Alpha Prime Racing, posting an average finish of 23.9. He finished 11th here last year.
Smithley’s lap has been disallowed, I’m hearing it was due to an unlatched roof hatch during his qualifying lap. That means Mason Massey has made the race. Garrett Smithley, who was understandably upset, declined to comment. #NASCAR
— Toby Christie (@Toby_Christie) April 19, 2024
Mason Massey ($5,500) starts this race back in 38th. This No. 14 car he's in might not be very good, but Massey has been solid in the Truck Series this season. If he can apply that to Xfinity, he can be a decent play if things get wild. Plus, he was the last car to make this race, only getting in after Garrett Smithley had his lap disallowed post-qualifying. I wonder if that could mean people who made lineups immediately might have assumed he was out. If so, he could have a low rostership and could really differentiate your GPP lineups.
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