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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/17/24. Use Brenton's free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets to win big.
We have a hefty slate of MLB action going down on this Wednesday's getaway day, so let's make sure we take advantage and pad those bankrolls!
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I'm Brenton Kemp and I continuously look forward to delivering quality MLB betting advice throughout the season. Let's get to it and have a look at some value for games on April 17 and see if we can come out on the right side of the ledger!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds at Mariners
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SEA -135
CIN: Andrew Abbott | SEA: Bryce Miller
Game Time: 4:10 p.m. EDT
The Cincinnati Reds and the Seattle Mariners will get together for the conclusion of a three-game set on Wednesday afternoon with the Mariners in search of a three-game sweep of the visiting Reds.
Getting the ball to salvage a win on Wednesday for the Reds is left-hander Andrew Abbott who has enjoyed quality results through his first three starts but is likely looking at some regression moving forward. The southpaw has turned in a 2.60 ERA through his first three starts of the season, but his 4.96 xFIP and 4.79 SIERA tell a different story. His 4.56 xFIP and 4.33 SIERA from last season were notably above his 3.87 ERA in 21 starts a season ago, as it appears his results have outperformed his expected results to this point in his young career.
As for the Mariners, it's right-hander Bryce Miller taking the bump. Miller has been significantly better pitching at home in his young career as he sports a 3.59 ERA at T-Mobile Park in Seattle versus a 4.62 ERA anywhere else. He has turned in a tidy 1.96 ERA through three starts and 18 1/3 innings of work to begin his 2024 campaign, although his .213 BABIP will be on the rise moving forward.
Bryce Miller, 95mph ⛽️
And messing with timing. 👀 pic.twitter.com/AxXuEwh6Bn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2024
Neither offense has been very good to begin the season as both clubs have been below the league average, as per wRC+, to this point but the M's have out-scored the Reds 12-4 in this series. The quality of this Mariners rotation has been the difference.
Look for Miller and the Seattle bats to carry them to a moneyline victory in the final game of a three-game set in the Pacific Northwest.
Pick: Mariners moneyline (-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels at Rays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: Rays -125
LAA: Reid Detmers | TB: Zack Littell
Game Time: 6:50 p.m. EDT
After a lengthy 13-inning affair on Tuesday, the Angels and Rays will tee off again on Wednesday in a matchup featuring a pair of starting pitchers who have been stingy on the young season.
The Angels will give the ball to left-hander Reid Detmers who has been fantastic to begin the season. The 24-year-old owns a minuscule 1.04 ERA through his first three starts while punching out 26 batters over his 17 1/3 innings of work. He has yet to allow a homer in that time, while his ground-ball rate has improved to 41.9%, a notable move from his 36.4% career mark.
As for the Rays, it's right-hander Zack Littell toeing the rubber on Wednesday. The 28-year-old owns a 1.17 ERA through three starts on an injury-ravaged Rays rotation while he too has not yielded a home run to this point. His 90% left-on-base rate will certainly drop moving forward but his career 6.6% BB% has helped keep him out of trouble. Littell has also increased his strikeout rate to 23.4% this season, a mark well above his 20.6% career figure.
Both offenses haven't been very good this season. The Angels are tied for 16th with a .314 wOBA on the season, while the Rays check in with a 22nd-ranked .302 wOBA. The Rays also sit 24th with a .124 isolated power on the season.
While both starters will see ERA regression moving forward, we'll look for a low-scoring affair in the spacious Tropicana Field in this one today.
Pick: Under 8.5 total runs (-118, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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