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While some teams have played nearly 20 games already, we still have a long way to go in the baseball season. A lot of the stats that we have seen so far still need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Examining production in the early going isn’t just the key to working the waiver wire. It’s also important not to overact to a player’s hot start by giving up too much to acquire them in a trade.
Let’s dive into some Fantasy Frauds through the first few weeks of the season and highlight why they likely won’t be able to continue their current level of success.
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Jesse Winker, Washington Nationals
Winker was a highly regarded prospect coming up through the Reds’ system. While he showed flashes of promise, he was ultimately unable to provide consistent production. Part of the problem was injuries, which limited him to 113 or fewer games in all five of his seasons with the team.
Since his time with the Reds, Winker has bounced around baseball. He played one season with the Mariners, one with the Brewers, and then joined the Nationals this offseason. The Nationals had plenty of holes in their lineup, so Winker certainly has an opportunity to carve out a regular role.
Winker has been excellent in the early going, posting a .442 wOBA and a 173 wRC+ entering play Monday. He has shown an excellent eye at the plate, posting a 16.1% walk rate and a 16.1% strikeout rate.
Winker has always shown an ability to generate walks, but don’t expect him to maintain his .341 batting average. He has been aided by a .412 BABIP, which is much higher than his career .298 BABIP. While his 37.1% hard-hit rate is better than last season, it’s still below his career mark of 40.0%.
Make that 4-for-4 for Jesse Winker and a brand new ballgame for the @Nationals! pic.twitter.com/rCucpryKyx
— MLB (@MLB) April 13, 2024
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
Profar is currently producing at a level that he never has over the course of his career. Entering play Monday, he is batting .321 with a .960 OPS. He has never finished a full season with a batting average over .254 and he has never posted an OPS over .793. For his career, he is batting .240 with a .710 OPS.
Profar has been in the majors since 2012, so it’s not likely that he has made any drastic improvements at this point in his career. His current hard-hit rate is 50.0%, which is likely going to see a significant drop off as the season wears on. For his career, he has a 31.5% hard-hit rate.
For fantasy managers looking to ride his hot streak, he is still available in 80% of Yahoo leagues. If you have a roster spot to play with, taking a chance on him isn’t a bad idea. However, with his production likely to tail off sooner rather than later, don’t drop anyone noteworthy for him.
A bases-clearing double from Jurickson Profar puts the @Padres in front! #SundayNightBaseball pic.twitter.com/MjJ9HDCbuN
— MLB (@MLB) April 15, 2024
Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers
Turang played in 137 games for the Brewers last year, batting just .218 with a .585 OPS. He does have a lot of speed, which enabled him to steal 26 bases. However, he only had a 2.9% barrel rate and a 26.0% hard-hit rate. He will need to make dramatic improvements in both departments if he’s going to contribute in more areas than just stolen bases.
Turang is off to a blistering start, batting .362 with a .903 OPS. He has put the ball on the ground more, entering Monday with a groundball rate that is more than five percentage points higher than last season. He has also cut down his fly ball rate by nearly nine percentage points.
As encouraging as that is for Turang, he still only has a 2.6% barrel rate and a 28.2% hard-hit rate. For fantasy managers desperate for steals, Turang is still a viable option. However, expect his batting average to take a serious hit as the season moves along.
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