Who is the Royals Closer? Fantasy Baseball Saves Outlooks

The Kansas City Royals are a storied franchise. With a World Series title in 2015, they were able to recapture the greatness of baby blue uniforms gone by. George Brett will always reign supreme on any "Best Of" list for the Royals, surrounded by more recent names like Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, and Carlos Beltran.

The closing role for the Royals has been somewhat of an iconic position for the last few decades. It is shocking to review the list of closers that had their come-up and/or best years as a late-inning relief arm for the Royals. Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Joakim Soria exemplify the excellence of late 2000s and 2010s Royals bullpens. Kelvin Herrera and Scott Barlow come to mind, both only having limited time as closers due to the other great arms around them, in addition to being traded to greener pastures.

This list of great closers also showcases a team that has generally stuck to a "traditional" closer role while much of the league has used a mixed approach for the ninth inning. With this trend hopefully continuing in 2024 and the Royals projected for upward of 70 wins, choosing the right relief arm to roster could yield 30+ saves for fantasy managers.

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Out with the Old, In with the New

At first blush, three names are on the docket for possible closer candidates in 2024 for the Royals. William Smith came into the year as the favorite, largely on name recognition with 22 saves in 2023 with the Rangers, splitting time with Jose Leclerc. James McArthur has popped up as a "young gun," getting his first cup of coffee in the majors in 2023 at the age of 26. Chris Stratton, while perhaps less likely than either of the aforementioned to be the long-term closer, has logged a save already in 2024.

Smith has by far the most experience, really the only one of the three with true closer experience. However, he has shown some significant alarm signs already. In just four innings this year, he has given up six earned runs, setup for failure by five walks. Noting the small sample size, seeing that many walks is concerning. Under the hood, Smith is averaging 90.0 mph on his fastball compared to 92.4 mph in 2023. Smith is trending too far in the wrong direction to be a reliable closer, even if the Royals did want to try to increase his value to move him at the deadline.

Stratton is a mediocre pitcher. He holds a career 4.04 FIP, quite high for a reliever often limited to single-inning outings. He is already 33 years old, so an uptick in velocity or other major positive change would be unlikely this far into his career. He can provide value as a multi-inning reliever, perhaps even a setup man, but his odds of achieving double-digit saves for the year are very, very low.

The Verdict

McArthur appears to have the opportunity and is running with it. As noted above, Smith is on his way out and Stratton is unlikely to challenge McArthur so long as McArthur's performance stays average to above average. He is an imposing figure on the mound, standing at 6-foot-7.

He somewhat surprisingly (for a big guy) leads with an 83 mph curveball that moves in a tight breaking pattern from one o'clock to seven o'clock. He spells that with a 94-95 mph sinking fastball that tails nicely away from left-handed hitters and toward the ankles of right-handed hitters.

James McArthur's 3Ks in the 8th. pic.twitter.com/DotUNm86ER

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2023

At the time of this article, McArthur secured the last two save opportunities for the Royals, with Smith serving as the setup man for both of these outings. There has been a changing of the guard, and McArthur is the Royals closer. The history of well-defined closers, limited other closing options, and strong early performance by McArthur make him the arm to own in the Kansas City bullpen in 2024.

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