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Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.
If anybody knows how to become rich and famous overnight, let me know. Trying to juggle quarter end accounting obligations, while trying to get articles out this week has left my procrastination running rampant this week. Apologies for my tardiness, but we are here for Breaking $100 and we are looking to get back to making some money.
It is always weird when someone wins and all you have on them is a top-40 bet. Stephan Jaeger took care of business and got Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) his third outright of the year. Congrats to the both of them and those of you who tailed Spencer's Vegas Report!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights ($10)
Benny An $2.16 (35-1)
We have bet Benny pretty much all through 2024 and his 4-foot brick that he threw to extend the playoff in Hawaii was the most devastating outright misses I have ever had. An has three top-10s on the year and has shown the propensity to play great golf in different field sizes and strengths, as well as at golf courses of varying styles. An also has a sixth and a seventh in his last trio of appearances here, giving him some good form and good course history to cook up a win at 35-1.
Brian Harman $2.04 (37-1l)
Harman's 18 strokes gained on approach over the eight rounds heading into the Valspar was too good to be true, betting him to win at both the Players and the Valspar. He finished T2 at the Players and missed the cut at the Valspar. If Harman's iron play can revert back to the strip show that was the Players and API, this course should reward his accuracy off the tee and nullify the distance he lacks with the big stick. He is very handy around the greens and his putter is capable of leading the field any given week. He has a trio of top 22 finishes spanning from 2012 to 2014, missing the cut and T51 in his next three starts here in 2015, 2016 and 2019. It has been a while since he has played here, but there is decent course history here, be it a decade ago!
Martin Laird $0.44 (170-1)
Winner of this event and the Shriners, Martin Laird has transformed his game from boring ball striking to getting real sassy on and around the greens. Laird has gained the seventh most strokes chipping and putting so far in 2024. He is very accurate off the tee and has been found to hit his irons really well from time to time. Course fit, course history, and comp courses all checking boxes for Laird who could quite possibly chip and putt his way to victory here again.
Tom Kim $1.25 (60-1)
Just like we mentioned with Martin Laird having won at the Shriners, which sets up as a similar comp course. Tom Kim has won the Shriners twice in two appearances. He really fancies that golf course and the three-time winner on tour (in just 18 months) is listed at 60-1 at a course that could very well see him bursting into the winners circle again after some really lack luster results to start the year. This number is just faaaar to long for the win equity Kim brings to the table.
Billy Horschel $2.16 (35-1)
The FOMO bet of the week comes in the form of Billy Horschel. We bet Horschell at the Cognizant when he was 200-1 and now after three top-12 results in his last quartet of starts, Horschel gets slapped with a 35-1 at a venue that he has had finishes of: MC, T11, MC, T4, 3rd, MC, T3. Course history and recent form have Billy Horschel trending towards something drastic, be it an epic missed cut or a win to get him into the Masters. We are riding with half of twitter on this one too.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $1.37 (55-1)
The best iron player in the field is priced at 55-1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout has gained ridiculous amounts of strokes on approach in 2024. As a result, he has a second at the AMEX and four finishes inside the top-24, with a ninth place finish most recently at the Valspar. Bezuidenhout has also been putting much more consistently this year, never losing more than -0.6 in an week of golf on the greens so far this year. He has also gained around the greens in his last three starts, which has been a concern for him lately. He lacks distance and aggression of epic proportions, but this course should hide his weaknesses and amplify his strengths, giving my fellow South African his first PGA Tour win of his career.
Sam Ryder $0.60 (125-1)
Sam Ryder entered the Houston Children's Open with 20 strokes gained putting in his previous 12 rounds. He lost on the greens in Houston but the putting form is there and the irons definitely showed up last week, gaining over strokes on approach, his best week with the irons since his T14 at the Fortinet in September. If we can get the irons and putter to sync up, we have ourselves a live wire who finished T3 here last year!
Placings ($85)
The below screenshot should help explain the reasoning behind these placement bets, as the majority of these golfers have been rather profitable in the market we are betting them in. The yellow headers are for how much $$$ that golfer would have returned in the last 12 months had you bet on them each time they played. The green columns are how often a golfer finished in each position.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $102.38 (DraftKings)
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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