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Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2024 Valero Texas Open!
Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at TPC San Antonio. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Valero Texas Open outright betting card.
The five names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment (including potential live adds). Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 22 outright winners (a 20.5% hit rate) for a profit of over $14,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 37.1%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Valero Texas Open!
Valero Texas Open Betting Card
Hideki Matsuyama (22-1)
Hideki Matsuyama chips in at the par-3 3rd, which marked his third birdie in a row!!!
He is quietly climbing back into contention. 4-under overall, 1-under on the day. #ThePlayers pic.twitter.com/EA6O2r1uCt
— Playing Through (@_PlayingThrough) March 15, 2024
We've come a long way from the 70 and 80-1 prices we were getting on Matsuyama on the West Coast, but Hideki's play over the last month has fully earned him this spot as the third-favorite to Rory and Ludvig. After an inconsistent start to 2024 that caused many to question his ball-striking ceiling, Matsuyama has gone on a tear through three of the years most prestigious events.
Of course, his Sunday (bogey-free), 62 around Riviera to capture the Genesis Invitational is likely to go down as the round of the season in 2024, but a pair of top finishes in Florida officially put an end to any doubts we may have had about Hideki's tee-to-green capabilities. Matsuyama gained a combined 15.5 strokes to the field between his driving and iron play in eight rounds at TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill, and was an average putting week away from challenging the top of the leaderboard for his first ever PLAYERS Championship.
This week, Hideki will arrive as one of the names to beat around TPC San Antonio: a venue where he recorded one the best ball-striking weeks of his season last year (+4.3 OTT; +2.7 on APP). The Japanese No. 1 has always provided a stellar baseline throughout his bag, but over the last 12 months, his approach play from inside 150 yards has been one of the most pronounced strengths on Tour (.79 SG/Shot; 95th percentile).
Prior to the PLAYERS Championship, Hideki had also managed to gain strokes on the greens in three consecutive starts from Scottsdale to Orlando. If he recreates a fraction of the putting form he had in those three weeks, he'll cast an imposing figure at the top of this leaderboard.
Collin Morikawa (33-1)
Collin Morikawa joins the group at -5, T1
Birdie on the par 5 5th gets Collin to +550 and becoming the new live betting favorite @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/aSvyqeYAzm
— Golfbet (@Golfbet) January 24, 2024
Unlike the hot-hand case I laid out for Hideki, Collin Morikawa's argument for consideration here rests almost entirely on his long-term profile. For the first time in his already illustrious career, Morikawa's ball-striking has been the facet that's held him back through the first three months of 2024.
Over his last five starts, Collin has actually lost strokes on approach and gained very minimally off of the tee. However, at a venue that has favored players like Corey Conners, Lucas Glover, and Charley Hoffman in recent years, it gets easier and easier to lay out the case for the elite version of that profile over the last three-four seasons.
Morikawa's combination of elite driving accuracy and stellar all-around iron play is as close to the optimal profile as you could hope for around the exceptionally penal confines of TPC San Antonio, and although he's never teed it up at the Valero Texas Open, past successes he's found at other penal driving tracks (Concession, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Southwind, etc.), shouldn't make it very difficult for Collin to find this week's blueprint.
Additionally, you won't have to travel back very far to find remnants of Morikawa's elite approach acumen, as he gained over five strokes with his irons at another wedge intensive venue to start the year at Kapalua, and over the last 12 months, only Hideki Matsuyama rates out better in Proximity from inside 150 yards.
Obviously, Collin will have to reverse his current ball-striking splits to have any chance of contenting to win this week's event. But with two weeks off to workshop his game, and a golf course that should be tailor made for his play-style, I'm more than comfortable laying a price over 30-1 on one of the premier talents in the sport.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Billy Horschel (40-1)
Billy Horschel sets up birdie with a beauty off the 2nd tee at the #BMWPGA. 🎯
📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @ROLEX | #ROLEXSeries pic.twitter.com/J0cyfnZbte
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) September 16, 2023
Although there will be many names in this field touted as having added motivation ahead of the year's first Major, that narrative means nothing without the requisite skill and form required by those who will need a win this week to gain entry into the famous gates of Augusta National.
Billy Horschel appears to be peaking at the perfect time to make a run at his tenth Masters appearance, as the 37-year-old Florida product has notched three top-12 finishes over his last four starts and ranks 5th in SG: Total over his last 36 rounds. Horschel has also shown the "know-how" around TPC San Antonio -- recording three top-five finishes here from 2013-2016.
His accuracy-intensive driving profile should suit this treacherous venue to a tee (2nd in Good Drive Percentage; 19th in Fairways Gained), and over the last 12 months, only Hideki, Adam Scott, Collin Morikawa, and Corey Conners have gained more strokes from 50-125 yards with their approach shots.
Billy said himself in his Tuesday press conference that his wins have always tended to come on the back of a sustained stretch of form, and I can promise that nobody in this field wants to lift this trophy as badly as the 2014 FedEx Cup Champion. At prices bordering on 40-1, he checks all of my boxes as a dark horse contender to spoil this week's party of marquee names.
Brian Harman (40-1)
Brian Harman drains the birdie putt on 13 to move two back and into solo third (-13). 👀
📺: NBC & @peacock | #THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/9mWa5if4xR
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 16, 2024
Harman let us down two weeks ago with a disappointing missed cut in Tampa, but I'm not giving up on the hope that our 2023 Open Champion has unlocked another level in his game. Prior to his Valspar MC, Harman recorded finishes of 12th and 2nd in two elevated events in Orlando/Ponte Vedra, and recorded two of the best 10 iron weeks of his entire career in the process (+9.0 and +5.6).
Harman spoke glowingly in the media about a new swing adjustment that allowed him to shape the ball both ways into greens, and proved right away that he's capable of pacing an elite field around two of the most demanding tee-to-green tests on Tour. I'll say again what I said after the API and the PLAYERS, but if Brian Harman becomes a top-ten iron player on the PGA Tour, we could well be in for a Cam Smith level breakout out of the 37-year-old.
He's already built a stellar career on the back of his exceptionally reliable driving and a prolific short game, and now we get to a venue that should be perfectly suited to his historic strengths. TPC San Antonio's punitive approach to exceptionally off-line tee shots shouldn't be much of a problem to a player who ranks inside the top 10 in Distance from the Edge of Fairway (22.1"), and the wedge-intensive nature of this week's approach distribution should play right into the hands of one of the better wedge players on Tour in the last 12 months (+0.048 SG/Shot from <100 yards).
Of course, we could look back on his two-start stretch in Florida as nothing more than an apparition in a run-of-the-mill Brian Harman campaign, but I'm not letting one minor setback undo the eight rounds of brilliance I saw through the first half of his Florida Swing. Still the 8th ranked player in the world (per OWGR), and priced 12th on this week's odds board, I'm more than comfortable running it back at prices of 40/1.
Akshay Bhatia (70-1)
Akshay Bhatia with an incredible approach from 234 yards out in the rough to 4 feet for eagle on 16. 🎯🔥
📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @TCHouOpen pic.twitter.com/sMxUOmsQXU
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 29, 2024
After a brief hiatus through Phoenix and the first half of Florida, Akshay's breakout campaign appears to be back on the rails. The 22-year-old phenom recorded finishes of 11th and 17th over his last two starts in Houston and Tampa, which runs his total tally of top 20 finishes to five in the calendar year.
The 7.9 shots Bhatia gained with his irons last week is the best ball-striking week we've seen from the youngster, and the putter has provided some promising returns through three months with the new broomstick -- gaining strokes to the field in five of eight starts.
Bhatia's driver remains one of the more metronomic entities in the sport, as he's gained strokes to the field off-the-tee in every start since last May's Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow (25 starts). Over his last 36 rounds, he ranks inside the top 25 in an assortment of my key ball-striking metrics (Good Drive Percentage, Birdie Chances Created, SG: Tee-to-Green, etc.).
Notably, the last time Akshay gained over 5.5 strokes on Approach on the PGA Tour (2023 Barbasol), he won the very next week at the Barracuda Championship. He's certainly in for a tougher task this week in the Valero's star-studded field, but the underlying stats point to a player on the precipice of joining that upper echelon very soon. 70-1 is a great price to take a shot at that main-level breakthrough.
In-Tournament Strategy
With these five names on the card, we're still left with ~15% of our weekly budget to use on in-tournament additions. This section will outline a few names to monitor in the live markets, as well as a few potential angles to use when assessing player viability over the course of the week.
- Despite the winning score cresting (-17) in three of its last five iterations, TPC San Antonio has historically played as one of the more difficult mid-tier events on the PGA Tour.
- With a scoring average of 72.44 and eight holes with a bogey or worse rate of over 20%, there are plenty of opportunities to gain strokes on the field by simply treading water. In particular, the 1st, 4th, 9th, 13th, and 15th holes are ones I'd classify as "Bogey Avoidance Opportunities," as a par on any of these holes would cut the average field by about two-tenths of a stroke.
- The Oaks Courses' difficulty is further emphasized by the complexity of its Par 5's (the second toughest set of three shotters on Tour). Only the 553-yard 14th hole will be reachable in two for the majority of the field, whereas the 2nd, 8th, and 18th holes all measure over 590 yards and carry bogey or worse rates of 13, 18, and 16 percent.
- There is a bit of hope for players that find themselves stuck in neutral on these long Par 5's, however, as TPC San Antonio features 5 Par 4's that measure under 410 yards and carry a birdie or better rate of >15%. In particular, the 347-yard 17th is the second easiest hole on the course - playing nearly a quarter-stroke under par historically. If a player is unable to separate himself on the Par 5's, he'd better be very adept in creating birdie chances with a wedge in hand.
- From a live-betting angle on Thursday and Friday, there is a fairly stark contrast between which side a player starts on this week. For those starting on the front, they'll be faced with the three most difficult holes on the course in the first half of their round (1, 4, 9), and a front-nine scoring average of 36.6.
- Starters on the inward half won't exactly be eased into their rounds either, as the first four holes (10-13) all carry bogey or worse rates over 20%. However, for players that are able to navigate those early landmines, the next five holes will offer up the clearest scoring opportunities on the entire property.
- The five-hole stretch from 14-18 features three of the easiest holes on the course (14, 17, 18), and acts in direct contrast to the "Snake Pit" we saw at Innisbrook two weeks ago. Whereas the finishing stretch at the Copperhead course was a white-knuckle affair, Valero's final five holes play to a cumulative scoring average of (-0.54).
- This is the most scoreable stretch of the golf course by some distance, and players with these holes in their back pockets should be treated much differently than a player finishing up on the front side. A pedestrian (-1) or (-2) round can quickly become one of the rounds of the day with a few good shots down the closing stretch.
- With all of that said, here are a few names that will populate my initial shortlist on Thursday: specifically targeting players that either get off to pedestrian starts from holes 1-13, or one who makes an early bogey on one of his first four holes off of the back-nine, with the expectation that he'll have no problem amending that mistake on the easier half of the inward side.
- Ryan Moore (8:20)*
- Aaron Rai (8:31)*
- Erik Van Rooyan (8:53)
- Max Homa (8:53)*
- Keith Mitchell (1:46)
- Lucas Glover (2:19)
- Austin Eckroat (2:41)
- Alex Noren (3:03)
- Byeong-Hun An (3:14)
Best of luck guys, and happy hunting!
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