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Hey, RotoBallers! I want to introduce myself formally, my name is Jon Irvin. Some of you may know me from the Discord channels and know I love breaking down DFS slates, especially in the MLB and NHL. I enjoy the deep dumpster diving and look forward to helping find the low-owned, overlooked, and unwanted plays. I predominantly play on DraftKings, so some of my picks are more tailored to their point/price system but a good spot is a good spot regardless of platform. We now have enough data to focus on positive and negative trends by implementing my trend chart where I look at both L25 and L10 to help see which teams are trending in which direction.
Welcome back to the discount rack! Today's DFS content will be for the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, April 1st, 2024. We have one of the biggest Monday slates of the year today, and I ain't foolin', with 8 games on the docket there should be nice hidden value. Colorado looks to be head and shoulders above the rest in terms of matchup, so either finding value to pay up for COL1 or rostering COL value will be the key to my builds today.
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After reading this, I pity the fool who doesn't jump into the RotoBaller Discord NHL channel and chat with all the other great minds about today's slate. Don’t forget to check out our valuable NHL tools, including the new NHL DFS Heat Map.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/1/24
As stated earlier, I have begun to implement my personal trend chart. Below, you'll see stats that reflect the average of L25 and L10. This happens to weigh L10 heavier, which tightens our sample and shows both positive and negative trends.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Ilya Samsonov - DK $7.5K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Florida Panthers
I was hoping to find Igor Shesterkin priced a bit lower today versus PIT, unfortunately being the third highest-priced netminder on DK takes him out of the value equation. Numbers show a slight hiccup from the Panthers over the L10 especially on the road. Florida still loves to shoot the puck and we've seen this year Toronto giving up their fair share as well, a mid-priced Samsonov could return decent value if he can keep his goals allowed to 3 or less.
Florida L10 Away
Others to consider: Jordan Binnington STL (DK $7.3K || FD $7.4K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Brayden Schenn - DK $3.7K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
St. Louis continues to shuffle their lines and Schenn finds himself back centering L2 with Kyrou and Saad. L10 metrics show a surge from STL as well as a big dip for EDM making this matchup one prime for the picking and should come with lower ownership. Schenn also finds himself on both PP2 and PK2 which gives avenues to more TOI. The chart below shows the difference between the L10 from the teams L25.
Ross Colton - DK $3.0K || FD $5.5K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
We have our first piece of what could be chalk value tonight. Colton and the rest of the gang on COL3 have been a constant staple in value for most of the year, tonight being no different. CBJ has been a nice drum to beat, if choosing to fade COL1, I strongly advise paying down for Ross to help pay for another top line.
Others to consider: Adam Lowry WPG (DK $2.9K || FD $4.2K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Nino Niederreiter- DK $3.4K || FD $4.5K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Now LAK isn't a team we often attack but the L10 home metrics for WPG3 scream to me. On a big open slate, a full line under 10k could be key. El Nino is coming in tonight with a gigantic xGF differential of over 2 goals. With SCF and HDCF both high 5v5, he's overdue to light the lamp.
Jonathan Drouin - DK $4.0K || FD $6.2K
Miles Wood - DK $3.0K || FD$4.1K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
With Valeri Nichushkin out for tonight, I present COL chalk value #2. I fully expect Drouin to be heavily owned skating with MacKinnon. He may be the chalk piece you roster and go about your day. Miles Wood makes another great value piece paired with Ross Colton and COL3.
Others to consider: Mason Appleton WPG (DK $2.8K || FD $4.0K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Braden Schneider - DK $3.2K || FD $3.7K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
Schneider has performed well over the past few games with a slight bump in minutes. Finding himself in both the SOG and BLK columns helps solidify a nice peripheral floor for a value defenseman.
Caleb Jones - DK $2.5K || FD $3.5K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
If and only if Sean Walker misses tonight's game, Caleb Jones becomes a min-priced punt option on DK.
Below I've included a chart of the top 30 defensemen over the past month concentrating more on peripheral floors rather than relying on goals/assists.
JIrv’s Discount Stacks and Sample Lineups
Top Value Stack
COL3
WPG3
Top Pay Up Stack
COL1
Don't be afraid to go off the beaten path and distinguish yourself from the masses, and as always, good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
