DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - Valero Texas Open With Rory McIlroy, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, Maverick McNealy, Martin Laird and More Golf Advice (2024)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Valero Texas Open. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Valero Texas Open

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Valero Texas Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 9

Last Five Winners Of The Valero Texas Open

Expected Cut-Line 

TPC San Antonio

7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Bermuda Greens (Overseeded With Bent/Poa)

After a handful of years where the Valero Texas Open became one of the weaker stops on tour because of the move right before the Masters, players have decided to place merit into the event this week, highlighted by nine of the top 20 players in the world here and ready to deliver fireworks In Texas.

Designed in 2010 by Greg Norman, TPC San Antonio Oaks is a lengthy Par 72 property that vaguely mimics next week's major but does so in a unique fashion that generates its own flair for the dramatics. We see those ramifications come into play immediately, with around the green producing 3.3% more impact on scoring than a typical stop on tour. That particular factor, mixed with a six percent decrease in GIR percentage, helps to make the layout one of the more demanding major preps on the schedule.

Six of the course's most challenging holes stretch between 410 and 481 yards, creating what theoretically should produce a condensed second shot yardage. However, it is essential to note that no proximity range is wildly more impactful than the next since each 25-yard bucket from 100 yards and beyond yields over a 10% expected output rate.

The wind has always been a factor in this event, and those gusts look rather pronounced from Friday to Sunday. We saw Kevin Na card his infamous 16 at the course in 2011 in somewhat benign conditions, so any breeze only adds to the convoluted nature of this layout.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

Strokes Gained: TPC Properties (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Long Courses (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Overall Aggression (20%)

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

Ownership will deviate from Monday to Thursday since I only have one of the five locations I pull from with any information entered for the week. Still, it seems likely that Rory McIlroy will go under the radar after his slow start to 2024.

McIlroy has quietly averaged nearly four strokes off the tee during his past eight starts, adding an assortment of iron production that has seen him spike with over four strokes in five of his last 13 starts.

If the approach game turns up in Texas, McIlroy has the trending data to sucker me back in for Augusta one last time before I finally call it quits. Yes, I know I have a sickness.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

There is a lot to like about this range for DFS purposes, which is one of the reasons I started my card in this section.

I found myself most bullish on Matthew Fitzpatrick's profile since it delivered one of the best modeling outputs I have ever had for him over the years.

The Englishman ranked inside the top 10 for weighted scrambling, projected strokes gained total, TPC production, wind play and the all-important answer of aggression this week, a category Fitzpatrick ranked first in this field.

These par-five holes are complex, and the players who have shown the propensity to take on added risk have typically won this title. 

Fitzpatrick usually sees a decline in my sheet because of his approach play. While it is still a relevant concern, there is a positive trajectory in that area to help further his quality scrambling metrics that will get further heightened in the wind. 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

With 12 consecutive made cuts, Alex Noren enters the week having produced three top-20 finishes in a row.

The Swede ranked fifth in my model for scrambling, eighth for aggression and carried the second-safest grade inside of the event because of his recent form and one-off course history result.

Noren is going to carry a good amount of popularity because of that trending data, but the high-end safety and top-10 upside numbers left me feeling aggressively bullish on his potential this weekend in Texas.

I consider Noren to be "good chalk."

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

You can dive deeper into my model to get the exact reason certain players ranked how they did for me this week.

My model found itself most bullish on Maverick McNealy, Mark Hubbard, Eric Cole, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Brendon Todd. 

McNealy should be playable up into that 10-13% range and has produced seven consecutive made cuts since returning to the PGA Tour from injury.

The past 24 rounds have shown massive increases in all the critical areas.

$6,000 Options To Consider

I think you can make a rather sound argument from C.T. Pan and above on my model. Almost all of those names carried either positive leverage or price differential, but I am going to go with Martin Laird being the safest and most playable from the group.

I loved Nate Lashley's upside if he pops, but with a floor that is troubling if that ownership continues, Laird was someone I incorrectly faded last week but has been sound since Phoenix, good in Texas and ranked fourth for birdie or better aggression.

$5,000 Options To Consider

There are some limited sample size returns that I don't necessarily trust.

Unlike last week, my model did notice a substantial drop-off in talent.

We will see if anyone pops to the forefront of the conversation over the next 48 hours, but I didn't find myself aggressively wanting to be in this zone.

Favorite Play Each Section:

$10,000+ - Rory McIlroy
$9,000+ - Matthew Fitzpatrick
$8,000+ - Alex Noren
$7,000+ - Maverick McNealy
$6,000+ - Martin Laird
$5,000+ - Later In The Week

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