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While the fantasy baseball and MLB offseason are wrapping up, there are plenty of fantasy managers who opt to take part in drafts as late as possible, ensuring the latest available information before selecting their players. If you need some sleeper targets or are looking to avoid busts, you've come to the right place.
Shane Bieber, Cal Raleigh, and Daulton Varsho are all interesting fantasy targets this year, so all three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.
Should you draft Bieber, Raleigh, or Varsho in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
Shane Bieber Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 126
Current ADP: ~pick 145
Analysis: Cleveland Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber enjoyed a 2023 season that would satisfy most big-league pitchers. But Shane Bieber isn't like most pitchers. He dealt with injuries and was limited to just 21 starts while working to a 3.80 ERA in that time. He had posted an ERA of 3.28 or better, including a 1.63 mark in winning the AL Cy Young Award in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, each season from 2019-2022. Most shocking was the plummeting of his strikeout rate to 20.1%, good for 93rd of 127 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2023.
It was his third straight season of declining strikeout rates from his eye-popping 41.1% clip in 2020. As a result, Bieber's ADP has slipped. He still boasts above-average control and run-prevention skills, such as limiting home runs. If the strikeouts can bounce back, he is a steal at his prevailing ADP.
Shane Bieber threw 11 fastballs at 93mph… in the entire 2023 season
He threw 10 in this video alone. Is.. is Biebs back?? pic.twitter.com/yjdMkNaGdg
— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) February 10, 2024
Cal Raleigh Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 166
Current ADP: ~pick 140
Analysis: Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh delivered for fantasy managers again in the 2023 season. In his age-26 season, Raleigh slugged 30 home runs to go along with an increased .232 average (versus .211 in 2022). He ranked fourth among all MLB catchers in plate appearances with 569 and first in home runs.
He walked a little more, struck out a little less but also struggled with a .645 OPS against left-handed pitching. Nonetheless, the switch-hitter's elite defense kept him in the lineup almost every day with designated hitter duties baked into his usage. Raleigh's 57 home runs over the past two seasons are 11 more than the second-ranked catcher, Salvador Perez. Rotoballer ranks him at 166th overall but at the end of the day, making him a slight reach at his current ADP.
Cal Raleigh is the 1st player in MLB history to hit a pinch-hit, walk-off home run to clinch a playoff spot for his team.
h/t @EliasSports
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 1, 2022
Daulton Varsho Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 233
Current ADP: ~pick 219
Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho endured a down season in the 2023 campaign, his first with the Jays following a highly-publicized deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks. After slugging 27 homers alongside 16 steals in 2022, Varsho fell to 20 homers while matching his stolen base total from his previous season. At the same time, he hit just .220 while his runs and RBI totals both took sizeable dips. While a middling walk rate and subpar batting average limit his overall value in the real world, his power and speed combination continue to buoy his fantasy value.
A strong spring has been encouraging and ATC projects Varsho to hit 23 home runs and steal 15 more bags this season. However, he has plenty of room to improve on those totals coming into his prime at age 27. Boasting an ADP outside the top 215 picks, he's a fine pick, but he's technically a bit of a reach.
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