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With Opening Day right around the corner, there's still a little bit of time to read up on potential sleepers and busts ahead of the fantasy baseball season.
Cole Ragans, Freddy Peralta, and Christian Walker are all interesting fantasy targets this year, so all three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.
Should you draft Ragans, Peralta, or Walker in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
Cole Ragans Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 89
Current ADP: ~pick 100
Analysis: Cole Ragans had a successful 2023, going 7-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 3.71 xFIP over 96 IP. He made 12 starts and 17 relief outings, a split that can be difficult to evaluate. Luckily, the now 26-year-old was much better as an SP (2.64 ERA, 21.7 K-BB%) than an RP (5.92 ERA, 9.4 K-BB%), so we can trust him to start. Ragans has a five-pitch mix highlighted by an outstanding fastball that posted an 11.9 SwStr% and 54.3 Zone%. Its 2,481 RPM spin rate and 96.6 mph average velocity support the results.
Cole Ragans, 2 1st Inning Ks. pic.twitter.com/qpfo5cveyu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 17, 2024
He also possesses a wipeout slider (25.8 SwStr%, 42.8 Zone%, 48.4% chase rate) which offers upside if Ragans starts throwing it more often (just 9.6% in 2023). Ragans rounds out his arsenal with a change (18.8 SwStr%, 42.4 Zone%, 34.9% chase), cutter (9.7 SwStr%, 54.6 Zone%), and curve (8.6 SwStr%, 44.2 Zone%, 23.6% chase). Wins could be tough to come by, but Kauffman is a great place to pitch and the Royals ranked fourth in the league last season with 27 Outs Above Average. Ragans offers an intriguing combination of ceiling and floor at his current ADP of around 100 if you don't need wins.
Freddy Peralta Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 52
Current ADP: ~pick 55
Analysis: Freddy Peralta had a career-high 165.2 IP (30 starts) in 2023, which bodes well moving forward. The results were impressive with a 12-10 W-L record, 3.86 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 210 Ks. With a bit more luck, it could've been even better for Peralta. His 3.42 xFIP and 3.45 SIERA suggest there's room for Peralta to have a sub-3.50 ERA, especially if the home runs subside. His 16.0% HR/FB was fourth highest among qualified pitchers. The Brewers American Family Field is one of the more home run-friendly ballparks so the homers might not subside too much, but there's certainly room for Peralta to lower his ERA. Peralta's biggest fantasy asset is the strikeouts.
His 30.9% K% was in the 92nd percentile and of the 17 pitchers to reach 200 Ks last year, Peralta had the fewest total innings. It was likely no coincidence that Peralta had a career-high 94.4 MPH average fastball velocity in the same year he avoided the IL. All four pitches in his arsenal had a sub-.300 wOBA in 2023 as Peralta gave us a glimpse of what he can do over a full season when healthy. He has top-5 starting pitcher potential in 2024.
Christian Walker Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 77
Current ADP: ~pick 77
Analysis: Christian Walker might not be the first name you think of when you contemplate MLB stars, but his 2023 campaign was stellar. Walker hit .258/.333/.497 with 33 HR a season ago, entrenching himself as Arizona's cleanup hitter. While his line reads like a typical slugger's, Walker is slightly different. His 19.2 K% was supported by a 30.4% chase rate and 11.8 SwStr%, so he doesn't have the swing-and-miss expected from 30+ HR bats. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect much improvement in his .272 BABIP considering his low 16.8 LD% and high 11.1 IFFB%, but his average should remain in the .250 range thanks to his plate discipline.
CHRISTIAN WALKER MOONSHOT. 🌙 pic.twitter.com/NbLDBWm2S0
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) March 26, 2024
His 91.7 mph average airborne exit velocity was below average, but Walker's 114.3 mph max exit velocity and 11.4% rate of Brls/BBE suggest he has the oomph for a three-peat. Walker also excels at lifting the ball with a 44.9 FB%, so he doesn't need huge raw power to put up impressive HR totals. Walker even added 11 steals with a 100% success rate in 2023, though his 26.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint speed remained below average. Walker will only contribute steals when the opposition falls asleep, but he is valued right where he should be in fantasy drafts.
More Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Sleepers
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