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Should I draft Colt Keith, Thairo Estrada, or Bryan Reynolds in fantasy baseball? Fantasy baseball rankings analysis and outlooks for the 2024 MLB fantasy baseball season.
With the 2024 MLB season set to begin this week, late fantasy baseball drafts are constantly taking place. There is still a little bit of time to read up on draft sleepers, busts, and dart throws, so let's dive into three key players in this article.
Thairo Estrada and Bryan Reynolds have had plenty of fantasy value in the past, while Colt Keith has promising upside. All three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.
Should you draft Keith, Estrada, or Reynolds in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
Colt Keith Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 266
Current ADP: ~pick 260
Analysis: Detroit Tigers infield prospect Colt Keith was arguably the minor league's best player in the 2023 season.
In his age-21 season, Keith made his presence felt right out of the gate, hitting .325 with 14 home runs, 18 doubles, two triples, and a .976 OPS across 59 games at Double-A Erie. He would follow that up with a .287 average alongside 13 HRs, 20 doubles, a triple, and a .890 OPS across 67 games and 301 trips to the plate at Triple-A Toledo. Despite his fantastic campaign, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris did not pull the trigger on a promotion to the big leagues.
However, with holes at both second and third base, the two positions Keith can play, the Tigers have little choice but to take Keith north with them out of spring training. His defense will remain a work in progress but the 2020 fifth-round pick has forced his way into the big leagues with his bat. He is a dynasty league darling and a solid late-round look with second-base eligibility in redraft formats.
Thairo Estrada Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 124
Current ADP: ~pick 167
Analysis: San Francisco Giants infielder Thairo Estrada finished 2023 with a .271 batting average, 14 home runs, 49 RBI, 63 runs, and 23 stolen bases. His season was interrupted by injuries that limited him to 120 games, including a hand fracture that took him out of action for a month after getting hit by a pitch on July 3. Estrada's batting average was buoyed by a .331 BABIP and his average exit velocity of 85.9 mph ranked him in the fourth percentile of qualified major leaguers. His walk rate decreased from 6.1% in 2022 to 4.2%, putting him in the third percentile of that category.
SLAM 💥 pic.twitter.com/xo49KdS0zn
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) March 20, 2024
He is projected to hit second in the Giants' lineup in 2024 but he will not last long there if he cannot get on base. Another 20-steal season is in reach, and he has eligibility at three positions (2B, SS, and OF). While there are some warning signs with Estrada, he is valuable when comparing RotoBaller's rank to industry ADP.
Bryan Reynolds Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 76
Current ADP: ~83
Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds isn't coming off of his best season, but the shine hasn't worn off yet. The 28-year-old saw his wRC+ drop to 110 last season from 124 in 2022 and 140 in 2021 but the fantasy production was there. He slugged 24 home runs and 31 doubles while stealing a career-high 12 bases and staying healthy enough to appear in 145 games for the second consecutive season. His wRC+ dip comes on the back of a decreased 8.3% BB%, more than 3% below his career-high 11.6% clip from 2021.
Bryan Reynolds is good at baseball. pic.twitter.com/swUUEy8ni8
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) March 21, 2024
He also benefited from a .345 BABIP that season to hit .302, so it's unreasonable to expect Reynolds to reach that high again as he's settled into the .263 range in each of the last two seasons. He ranked in the 70th percentile or better in just about every offensive metric known to Statcast in 2023, just as he has in previous seasons. At this point, there's very little to doubt his consistency and he looks all the part of a top-100 pick in fantasy baseball drafts.
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