RADIO
The NFL offseason has been scorching hot. It's been fun to watch. While redraft fantasy football players have been able to put their feet up and relax, dynasty players know their work never stops. With major signings and big names on the move, the start of the offseason is one of the busiest times of the year.
While we should enjoy the offseason news cycle, we must also take some time and think about how we should value individual players. That’s what we’re aiming to do with our Dynasty Price Check series. What’s a player’s current value? Are they overvalued or undervalued by the dynasty community? Should you be looking to buy or throw them out the door?
Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Today, we will examine one of dynasty football’s more difficult players to evaluate. Let’s figure out what exactly we should be doing with Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson.
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Deshaun Watson Background
Watson started his career strong when he burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2017. An ACL injury would sadly cut his rookie season short. Watson would bounce back and post three straight QB5 finishes from 2018-2020. He looked to be among the elite quarterback options for dynasty leagues.
Deshaun Watson got kicked in the face and proceeded to THROW A TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/kMzE1LWFKS
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 27, 2019
That all changed in 2021 when a slew of sexual assault claims were levied against Watson. He missed the entire 2021 season and more than half of the 2022 season as a result of the lawsuits, investigation, and suspension by the league.
Amid all the uncertainty, the Cleveland Browns made a franchise-changing move and traded for Watson. They gave away three first-round picks, as well as third- and fourth-round picks to do so. And on top of that, Cleveland signed Watson to a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract.
Given the way Watson has played since receiving that, well, interesting contract, it is very fair to wonder what exactly the Browns were thinking when they pulled the trigger.
Deshaun Watson Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook
Let’s just get the obvious out of the way.
Watson was outplayed by Joe Flacco in 2023. That’s a bad look considering Flacco was eating corn chips on his couch for most of the season.
Nonetheless, the Browns are still tied to Watson for the foreseeable future thanks to his aforementioned contract. Here are the dead cap hits for the next three years, per Spotrac:
2024: $200,915,000
2025: $136,938,000
2026: $72,961,000
Realistically, Cleveland cannot get out of this contract until 2026. Even then, they would need to take a Russell Wilson-type dead cap hit. That’s a possibility, but for all intents and purposes, Cleveland is stuck with Watson for the duration of this deal.
Flacco is no longer with the team. He signed with the Indianapolis Colts to back up Anthony Richardson. Cleveland opted to sign Jameis Winston in free agency to serve as Watson’s backup. Allowing Flacco to sign elsewhere immediately removes the talk or threat of any quarterback competition. This move suggests the Browns are committed to making things work with Watson.
Watson is currently ranked as the QB17 in our up-to-date dynasty fantasy football rankings. KeepTradeCut, which crowdsources data from dynasty football players to formulate rankings, has Watson as the QB23. It’s easy to understand these rankings when you consider how he’s played since returning.
🚨 INTERCEPTION 🚨
Levi Wallace picks off Deshaun Watson!pic.twitter.com/r6r5XL8zXf
— Steelers Nation (@SteelerNationCP) January 8, 2023
Last year, Watson finished just 30th in Pro Football Focus’s Adjusted Completion Percentage and was only its 32nd-graded passer among all quarterbacks. What complicates matters is that for fantasy football purposes, Watson has still been very useful.
Deshaun Watson was awful last year.
Deshaun Watson also finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in 3 of his 5 full games last year.
QB22 in early @UnderdogFantasy ADP.
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) February 19, 2024
That is the kind of production you would love to get from your QB2 in Superflex leagues.
The issues with his health and overall terrible play complicate what we can expect going forward. But make no mistake, given the cost of acquisition, Watson will be Cleveland’s starter as long as he’s healthy. They don’t really have a choice.
What is Deshaun Watson Worth?
Watson’s trade value is difficult to gauge. He’s only played 12 out of a possible 51 games since 2020. KeepTradeCut estimates Watson’s value around a 2026 first-round pick in Superflex leagues and a 2026 second-round pick in single-QB leagues.
This feels cheap considering he has three top-five seasons to his name. However, it makes sense when you factor in all the questions about his play.
Normally, Watson’s recent play would bring about the possibility of a benching and thus losing all fantasy value. Given his contract situation, though, that doesn’t seem to be a real threat. He is certainly not someone you’d want as your QB1 in Superflex or single-quarterback leagues, though.
Across my dynasty portfolio, I own quite a few shares of Watson. He’s my QB2 or QB3 in all leagues where I do roster him. Watson is best suited in this capacity as he can still deliver QB1 production. The question marks surrounding him make it difficult to trust him as anything more.
It’s not the worst idea to kick the tires on trading for Watson. His value is at a low point, which makes him a potentially intriguing buy-low option. Cleveland is committed to him, and maybe they can help him regain his previous form. He could be a league winner if that were to happen.
Here’s an example of a recent trade I made to acquire Watson in a Superflex dynasty league:
Give: Kenny Pickett, Jayden Reed
Get: Deshaun Watson, Christian Watson
This trade went down about two weeks before the Steelers signed Russell Wilson, traded for Justin Fields, and shipped Pickett off to Philadelphia. This trade has aged very well for me for obvious reasons.
At the time, Kenny Pickett was my QB2. I had to make a move for someone with more upside. I down-tiered big time at receiver and was hoping the potential upgrade at quarterback would more than offset that.
If you can pull off a similar move for Watson, that is the ideal way to play it. If that kind of deal is not available, you can look at packaging a player with a second-round pick to see if that will get the job done. Feel out the manager who owns Watson and see where they stand. That will help you gauge his value and then make an offer accordingly.
Overall, Watson still offers QB1 upside. Unless he can regain his previous form, the days of top-five seasons are probably over. Yet, this doesn’t mean that Watson still can’t be useful in dynasty leagues. You just have to understand that rostering him comes with considerable risk.
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