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Welcome RotoBallers to our salary cap league strategy article targeting pitchers with an average auction value (AAV) of under $5.
In the salary cap draft format, fantasy baseball managers are not bound by the rules and structure of the snake draft. The ability to put your money toward the players you prefer feels liberating. But the freedom of roster construction in a salary cap league comes with an added challenge of being financially responsible. You won't be able to fill your roster with the hyped superstars, but if you bid shrewdly on targets under $5, you'll find that you'll have paved a smooth road to the fantasy baseball championship.
In this article, we will target the pitchers with average auction values of less than $5 that should offer the most value. In this price range, there are still many pitchers with high ceilings. Be sure to check out the article for hitters under $5.
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Nick Lodolo (SP, CLE) - $3
While a season-ending tibia injury harshened the vibe around former top Reds pitching prospect Nick Lodolo, he's in a good spot going into 2024.
Lodolo was coming off a stellar rookie season in 2022, with a 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 29.7% strikeout rate through 19 starts. He made seven starts in 2023 before going down with the tibia injury, with a gruesome 6.29 ERA, 5.79 FIP, and 1.75 WHIP in 34 1/3 innings.
The combination of a disappointing start to the 2023 season and a serious injury is enough to scare most away from the 2019 first-round pick, dropping his AAV to just $3. However, his horrible start to the 2023 season was primarily due to bad luck, with solid metrics like his 3.78 xFIP, 28.3% strikeout rate, and 6% walk rate in 2023.
The 26-year-old has impressed in spring training with a 1.93 ERA through two starts; he makes for a good comeback draft target at just a $3 AAV.
Nick Lodolo, Wicked Breaking Balls. 🤢
6th and 7th Ks pic.twitter.com/e3K8ieLPPP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 30, 2023
Brayan Bello (SP, BOS) - $3
Re-upping with the Red Sox on a relatively lucrative six-year, $55 million extension, Brayan Bello's 2024 season is imbued with higher expectations.
The 24-year-old had a mediocre first full season, with a 4.24 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 19.8% strikeout rate, and 6.7% walk rate through 28 starts. He kept his head above the water in 2023 mainly due to his elite 56.8% ground ball rate.
However, his season wasn't nearly as bad as those stats look. His season was bookended by absolute blow-up starts, starting the regular season with five runs allowed in 2 2/3 innings against the Angels and ending the year with eight runs allowed across three innings against the World Series-winning Rangers and five runs allowed against the Tampa Bay Rays. Removing those three starts from his 2023 season, Bello holds a stellar 3.47 ERA, 3.90 xFIP, and 1.22 WHIP.
While you'll want him to raise his strikeout ceiling before hailing him a steal at $3, Bello's floor and pedigree are worth the low-risk gamble.
Kyle Harrison (SP, SF) - $3
Hailed as the league's best left-handed pitching prospect, Kyle Harrison has a good shot at overperforming his modest $3 AAV in 2024.
He had an uneven debut year in 2023, maintaining rookie eligibility while holding a 4.15 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 23.8% strikeout rate, and 7.5% walk rate through seven starts. ATC projects a 4.07 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 26.1% strikeout rate, and 10.3% walk rate.
His walk issues may sink his chances of being a top-line starter in his rookie year, but his unmatched strikeout ceiling should give him a good shot at returning on that $3 AAV.
Kyle Harrison's 8th and 9th Ks.
Thru 4 pic.twitter.com/j4e9VKEB9p
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 29, 2023
Kenta Maeda (SP, DET) - $3
Kenta Maeda seemingly struggled again in 2023, with a 4.23 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate through 20 starts. But had it not been for a bloodbath outing (10 earned runs allowed across three innings) on April 26 against the New York Yankees, Maeda would likely be carrying a double-digit AAV this season.
After the start against the Yankees, the 35-year-old went to the injured list for a strained right tricep injury. Once he returned from that injury in late June, he never looked back with a 3.36 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 29% strikeout rate, and 7% walk rate in his last 16 starts. Maeda was successful for most of the 2023 season, which should be enough to buy in for 2024 at the low price of $3.
Kenta Maeda, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/AXW9nQa9kf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 12, 2024
DL Hall (SP, MIL) - $2
Traded away as the main piece of the Corbin Burnes trade, DL Hall will now look to settle into Milwaukee as a starting pitcher.
The 25-year-old found innings hard to come by in 2023 but managed to produce with a 3.26 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 28.4% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate through 18 appearances as a reliever.
He works with a four-pitch arsenal: a four-seam fastball (54% pitch usage), slider (26% usage), changeup (16% usage), and curveball (4% usage). The four-seam fastball is his star pitch, generating an elite 16.6% SwStr rate with a .181 opponent xBA. His slider didn't play well in 2023 (.300 opponent batting average) but induced an impressive 61.1% ground ball rate; the changeup was fantastic, with a 19.7% SwStr rate and 31.1% CSW rate last season.
Likely to take the last spot in the Brewers rotation, Hall's standout stuff puts him on breakout watch in fantasy baseball. It may do you well to throw down $2 for the talented pitcher.
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