Nick Lodolo - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Sleepers (2024)

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 228

CURRENT ADP: ~242 overall

ANALYSIS: Right down to the frame, mechanics, draft capital, and now injury-prone nature, Nick Lodolo can't help but come off as a Chris Sale clone. It feels like only a matter of time before Lodolo is producing near the level Sale did during the veteran's prime. A 2022 post-All-Star break hero, Lodolo wrapped up the year in electric fashion with a 2.92 ERA (3.57 FIP) and 93:27 K: BB in 77 innings (13 starts).

The lefty's fortunes carried into the start of 2023, attaining a 2.12 ERA and 27:6 K: BB over his first 17 frames before the injury bug bit him badly. Really bad. A stress reaction in his left tibia would ultimately sideline Lodolo after May 6, and he sustained another while nearing a return in August. Still dealing with complications from the setback, Lodolo has yet to appear in spring training but is scheduled to debut on March 10, which should still only make his ADP even more affordable.

After leading the big leagues with 19 hit-by-pitches in just 19 starts during 2022, Lodolo significantly sharpened his command via a 6.0% BB% despite weak 2023 results overall. The swing-and-miss stuff was still there as well, as evidenced by strong chase (32.3%), whiff (30.4%), and K (28.3%) rates.

On top of that, Lodolo featured some of Statcast's biggest differences with a .340 BA and .242 xBA, .605 SLG and .468 xSLG, .426 wOBA and .336 xwOBA, plus a 6.29 ERA and 4.83 xERA. That's a lot of numbers to digest, but it simply tells the tale of how unlucky the 26-year-old southpaw was during his first full season.

Much like Hunter Greene, the bandbox ballpark factor isn't going away. Even so, how could we not like the idea of getting an arm in the 200s of drafts with this level of strikeout upside and potential to stabilize ratios, to boot? I'll gladly grab the injury discount we're getting this spring.

It was Nick Lodolo day in Goodyear...& it was as filthy as ever.

The 26 year old lefty touching 95 mph with his fastball - in his first start since May 6, 2023 (tibia).
Lodolo's final line: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K

📽️: courtesy of #Reds | @WLWT pic.twitter.com/D2i4SIKxNl

— Olivia Ray (@OliviaRayTV) March 10, 2024

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