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"Breakout" is a common term used around the fantasy community during the draft season.
These players are usually fairly young and have just begun to scratch the surface of their professional careers. They have also had a relatively high prospect pedigree, further raising their potential ceiling.
The most important note about a "breakout" is that this is the year to draft them at a discount. If these players live up to their potential, they can very well be drafted at the top of their respective positions next season. This is the year to take a risk on them and even draft them earlier than their ADP might suggest, as it may lead you to a fantasy b
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Cole Ragans, SP, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 105
Cole Ragans has been a popular name in the fantasy baseball world during the offseason, and rightfully so. On June 30, he was traded to the Kansas City Royals from the Texas Rangers. There, he eventually had the opportunity to become a starter, and the southpaw did not disappoint.
He posted a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in the second half of the season with 89 punchouts across 71 and ⅔ innings. The 26-year-old had strong underlying metrics during this time that further support the notion of a 2024 breakout campaign.
Here is 2 minutes of Cole Ragans striking out guys swinging on his 4-Seam Fastball
Source: MLBAM pic.twitter.com/VXgbwsGnYr
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 5, 2024
The southpaw had an excellent 28.8% K% (85th percentile) and a strong 6.4% barrel rate (75th percentile). He was also well above league average with a 3.33 xERA and .212 xBA.
Much of this success is credited to his changeup, which he relied on 23.7% of the time last season, his second most used pitch. This pitch generated a minuscule .152 AVG with a high 34.4% whiff rate.
To make this even better, Ragans has been hitting 100 mph this spring, while his fastball last season sat at just under 97 mph.
Ragans is flying up draft boards as everyone is preparing for the breakout campaign. Do not be afraid to reach out to him earlier than his current ADP. He might very well be drafted as a top option this time next year.
Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 163
Bo Naylor was given an opportunity to take the reins as the Cleveland catcher and performed well in his debut season. The 24-year-old posted a .237 AVG, .339 OBP, and .470 SLG with 11 long balls and five swiped bags across 230 plate appearances.
Naylor did not begin to receive consistent opportunities until later in July. Once he found his stride, he became a vital piece to the Cleveland offense. In the second half, he posted a .252. AVG, .362 OBP, .531 SLG, and hit 10 of his home runs during this span, too. Naylor had a dominant September, where he had a 1.125 OPS with a .654 SLG, which was by far his most productive month at the plate.
A dominant September shows that Naylor was able to put all of the pieces together at the end of the season, signifying that his success should continue into 2024. One aspect of Naylor’s game that stuck out was his ability to hit fastballs for power in 2023. When facing four-seamers, Naylor posted a .510 SLG with eight home runs.
Bo Naylor's first career home run comes complete with a hug from his big brother pic.twitter.com/lYcczKtiEL
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 29, 2023
Naylor also showed a strong eye at the plate with a 13% walk rate, which would have scored well above league average if he had enough plate appearances to make him eligible in that category.
The final note on Naylor is his speed. The young catcher swiped five bags last season, which placed him seventh among all catchers. Even more impressive, every catcher above him in the rankings had almost 200-300 more plate appearances than him. In a full season, Naylor could finish at the top of the position in stolen bases, which can give you a significant and sneaky advantage in rotisserie leagues.
Take Naylor at his ADP or earlier and feel comfortable in knowing that you might have the next breakout catcher on your roster.
Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers
ADP: 123
The fifth-best prospect in baseball rounds out this breakout list. Evan Carter debuted last September and remained on the major league roster throughout the entire playoffs as the Rangers went on to win the World Series.
EVAN CARTER WAS JUST CALLED UP & HE’S MAKING A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON A MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM IN THE PLAYOFFS
OH YEAH? LET US REMIND YOU THAT HE’S 21 YEARS OLD
— Dallas Nation 🏆 (@TheDallasNation) October 4, 2023
Across 72 plate appearances in September, Carter posted a .288 AVG, .403 OBP, and .627 SLG with five home runs and three stolen bases. He continued that success in October as he hit a .309 AVG with a .433 OBP and .509 SLG.
Despite a small sample size, Carter’s underlying metrics look strong, and they should play well across a full season. The left-handed bat had an excellent 9.0% chase rate and 16.0% walk rate in his one month of regular-season play. He also would have placed above league average with a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 10.3% barrel rate.
However, he did have a high 32.0% K% rate, which is something to monitor at the start of the 2024 campaign. The former second-round pick is slated to serve as the team’s primary left fielder in 2024, which is setting up a potentially massive breakout season for the top prospect, who will be receiving a full-time role on one of the best lineups in the sport.
These players are worth the investment at their current ADP as they could very well finish at the top of their positions and exceed their projections. It is always a good idea to bet on talent once you hit the mid and latter rounds of your fantasy draft. Get ahead of your league mates and select these players on draft day.
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