Key Mid-Round Draft Targets - Expert Fantasy Baseball Picks Using EDV

Spring Training is underway, which means we're back with another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered.

It's time to head into the vast outfield and compare players' projected stat lines via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we investigate undervalued and overvalued players from all over using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning mid-February into March, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and their projection.

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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win

Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, “Player X is a great value at that ADP.” We've taken historical data and come up with a metric that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts: 1) HR+BA+SB, 2) HR+BA, 3) SB+HR, 4) SB+BA, 5) HR, 6) SB, and 7) BA.

We know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context. What does it take to be a worthwhile power-heavy bat around pick 20? A power-speed threat near pick 125? EDV is not a definitive practice, just as projections are an imperfect science. However, it'll sharpen your draft tools.

You can read more about EDV in this Intro To Expected Draft Values article, which was nominated for FSWA's Best Research Article award.

Key Mid-Round EDV Players to Target

The middle rounds are where many of us start taking bigger swings after building a steady foundation. But the difference between putting a palace or a rickety shack on our foundation comes with these picks. Let’s look at ADP, utilize our Expected Draft Values (EDV), and identify encouraging buys.

Dansby Swanson’s first year in Wrigley went swimmingly, as he once again dazzled in the field with 22 home runs and nine stolen bases. The .244/.328/.416 triple slash left something to be desired, but most of his Statcast data held steady. His xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA didn’t move beyond .01 compared to 2022, and both his Barrel and Barrel-per-Plate-Appearance rates were nearly identical.

He traded some fly balls for grounders and regressed to his usual ~89 mph average exit velocity after it rose a tick in '22, but steady barrel rates illustrate a guy who didn’t forget how to square it up. Rather, he just eased off the pedal with a raised walk rate (7% to 10%) and the lessened aggression that came with it. Do we get a Swanson who attacks the heart of the zone again, or not?

According to the diagram above, the purple "heart of the plate" value was +1 in 2022. Hopefully, he shows more comfort in Year 2 with the Cubbies and earns more green lights on the basepaths. Despite the favorable SB rule changes, he went from 25 SB attempts in '22 to just 10 in '23 (he went 9-for-10).

Even if Swanson remains a guy with “just” ~22-25 HRs and 10-12 SBs, he still meets EDV while providing an advantage in R+RBI and AVG (slightly) thanks to his premium slot in CHC’s order. Swanson is a good buy at his 2023 price, but perhaps a new swing approach unlocks another level!

Dansby Swanson swing changes.

The change is in weight transfer. Dansby has strong front foot stability for fastballs, but the problem is he gets off-line on breaking stuff. So a goal was to balance this, feel that back-side more.

Left is last year & right is today. pic.twitter.com/ZX9vqZF3UG

— Brendan Miller (@brendan_cubs) March 3, 2024

Another middle infielder that’s green across the EDV line is Oakland’s Zack Gelof. Being on Oakland suppresses his value and most are excessively hand-waving his 14 HRs/14 SBs in 69 nice games as a rookie. But he also hit 12 HRs with 20 SBs and a .304 AVG in 69 Triple-A games before the promotion! Yes, Las Vegas has friendly hitting conditions, but still. His .331 MLB BABIP was preceded by .410 at Triple-A ('23), .358 at Double-A ('22), and .366 at Single-A ('21). Hitting it hard and running well have their perks!

A power-speed guy going around an ADP of 135 needs the following to meet EDV in 2024: 24 HRs, 13 SBs, 140 R+RBI, and a ~.240 AVG. I have him closer to a 25/25 bat, and most systems agree on 20/20 while meeting the AVG and R+RBI tallies. A sophomore slump could hit but Oakland lacks depth to pressure him, especially after flashing a high ceiling. Job security and fantasy-friendly tools are lovely to build around.

Can someone explain how Zack Gelof is projected to only hit 4 more HRs in 2024 with 257 more ABs?? I ain't buying it. Dude is gonna get at least 25/25 HR/SB this year. pic.twitter.com/B9ajmhWV8k

— A. Bern (@alexbernadett) February 4, 2024

Those familiar with EDV will know that the BA+HR+SB cohort is the toughest to qualify for as it covers all traditional fantasy categories. There are 17 hitters in the cohort with our Cutter projections and over half of them cost a top-20 pick. All but four demand a top-50 pick and all of them are going in the first 10 rounds of a 12-team draft except for one: Riley Greene. (Xander Bogaerts, Seiya Suzuki, and Josh Naylor are the other later bats.)

Greene is slightly below the EDV mark at -5.0, but the modest contributions in power, speed, and average make him a sweet snag. We project 18 HRs/11 SBs/.280 AVG while ATC sits at 17 HRs/10 SBs/.276 AVG. It’s easy to forget that Greene was just 22 last year and has battled through a pair of freak leg injuries already.

A normal, full-season routine could get his legs under him and unlock the .900-OPS hitter seen at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. His 96.1 mph average exit velocity on flies and liners ranked 31st among 343 hitters with at least 150 batted-ball events. Comerica Park isn’t Coors but at least they altered the walls in center and right field before 2023.

ICYMI, #Tigers moving in CF wall and lowering fence heights at Comerica Park for upcoming season.

Graphic via @Tigers pic.twitter.com/1ujdo0pA67

— MLB Cathedrals (@MLBcathedrals) January 24, 2023

And finally, we have Trevor Story, for tradition’s sake. It seems several are writing off Story’s Colorado success due to Coors and his previous elbow injury. He’s looked unsteady at the plate, but this is his first Boston season with a full and healthy offseason/spring training.

The elbow surgery sunk his 2023 and a mismanaged hand fracture torpedoed much of '22 as well, which started with a late signing and more spring missed with the birth of a child. He recently appeared in an interview with Chris Cotillo and spoke about the difference in ramping up with a “normal” offseason.

THE BAT X calls for a 20/20 season with just 120 games played, while we project 25/25 and closer to 150 games. He would only need 45 HRs+SBs while hitting .230 to yield returns from near pick 170, and even conservative systems exceed that plus 10 average points, with plenty of HR+SB profit as long as health holds. I’m no doctor, but I do know Fenway remains the third-best hitting park for a right-handed bat per Statcast.

Summary of Top Mid-Round EDV Targets

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