Biggest Wide Receiver Surprises - Fantasy Football Year In Review

Mike breaks down the biggest surprises at wide receiver from the 2023 fantasy football season. Who has seen their ADP affected heading into 2024?

The 2023 fantasy football season has been over for months. Yet, fantasy football is a year-round game. While the 2024 NFL season won’t be here for a while, it’s never too early to start preparing for your fantasy football drafts.

Fantasy players have plenty of numbers to look at from last year. However, one of the more critical things to analyze is the trends and surprises from last season.

Let’s look at the seven biggest wide receiver surprises from the 2023 fantasy football season, including four rookie star players.

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Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

The Rams had the two biggest surprise performances of the 2023 season. Kyren Williams was an elite RB1, while Nacua had an all-time rookie performance. The former BYU receiver ended the year as the WR4, averaging 14.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, he ranked 27th among wide receivers with six receiving touchdowns, totaling fewer scores than Gabe Davis, Romeo Doubs, and Jakobi Meyers.

Nacua was a fantasy football league winner off the waiver wire. Anyone who missed out on the star rookie wide receiver regretted it. He scored 11.5 or more fantasy points in 64.7% of the games, including five of the final six. The former BYU receiver broke two rookie receiving records in 2023. He broke Jaylen Waddle’s record for receptions by a rookie (105). Nacua also had the most receiving yards in a season by a rookie (1,486), breaking a record that stood for over 60 years.

Puka Nacua shares a moment with his family after breaking the NFL rookie receiving record 🥲💙 pic.twitter.com/WAbTZX9pSJ

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 7, 2024

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Many refused to draft Evans last year. The star receiver lost Tom Brady in the offseason after the future Hall of Famer retired for the second time. He also turned 30 right before the start of the season. Yet, the former Texas A&M star had a massive fantasy season in 2023. The veteran ended the year as the WR5, averaging 14.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game after building a strong connection with Baker Mayfield, connecting on 58.1% of his targets.

Despite the downgrade at quarterback, Evans had over 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th consecutive season, keeping his streak alive. He had 1,255 receiving yards in 2023, his highest total since 2018. More importantly, the star receiver rebounded in the touchdown department. After totaling only six receiving scores in 2022, Evans led the NFL with 13 last season. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, the former Texas A&M star has plenty of gas left in the tank.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

Some called Allen a bust candidate last year because of his age. He also missed seven games in 2022 because of injury. Yet, the veteran wide receiver had an outstanding season despite turning 31 in April. Allen ended the year as the WR8, averaging 17.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While he missed the last month of the season with a heel injury, the Chargers shut down the star receiver after losing Justin Herbert to a season-ending finger injury.

Furthermore, Allen was the WR3 on a points-per-game basis, finishing behind Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. He joined Justin Jefferson as the only other wide receiver to finish in the top eight on a points-per-game basis despite having fewer than eight receiving touchdowns. Unfortunately, Herbert’s finger injuries limited his production at the end of the season. Yet, Allen averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game over the first 10 contests, totaling 35 or more twice.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

While he struggled over his first two years in the NFL, Collins was a popular third-year breakout candidate heading into the 2023 season. The former Michigan star had 70 receptions on 127 targets for 927 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and 145.7 half-point PPR fantasy points over his first two years. However, the arrival of C.J. Stroud was what Collins needed to become a fantasy football star. He ended the 2023 season as the WR9, averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game.

The former Michigan receiver had 80 receptions on 109 targets for 1,297 receiving yards, eight touchdowns, and 220.4 fantasy points last year despite missing two games because of injuries. Collins turned into one of the top downfield threats in the NFL, averaging nearly 12 receiving yards per target and over 16 yards per reception in 2023. Thankfully, Houston’s offense is explosive enough to keep Tank Dell and Collins in the top-20 mix heading into next year.

First career TD pass for C.J. Stroud! @CJ7STROUD

📺: #INDvsHOU on FOX⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/FhXtx7w3wW pic.twitter.com/qf5sFzuR6O

— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2023

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

Last year’s NFL Draft class was loaded with wide receivers. Yet, Addison was the only one of the four first-round guys to have an impressive rookie season. The former USC star ended the year as the WR21, averaging 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While his production tailed off in the second half of the season, the Vikings had four starting quarterbacks in 2023. He ended the year with 70 receptions on 108 targets for 911 receiving yards.

Furthermore, Addison finished fourth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 10, totaling as many as Chris Olave and Amari Cooper combined. The rookie was outstanding with Kirk Cousins under center. He averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game and had seven receiving touchdowns in the eight contests with the veteran quarterback. By comparison, Addison averaged 8.7 fantasy points per game, totaling three receiving touchdowns in the nine contests with the other quarterbacks.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson was a popular draft pick in 2023. Unfortunately, he struggled with injuries, missing nearly half the season. However, that opened the door for Reed to become Jordan Love’s top wide receiver. The former Michigan State star finished his rookie year as the WR23, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He was a difference maker in the passing game and on the ground for Green Bay.

The rookie receiver had only 11 rushing attempts but finished with 119 yards and two touchdowns, ranking second on the team in rushing scores, only behind Love (four). While he finished second in targets behind Romeo Doubs, Reed led the team in receptions (64), receiving yards (793), and touchdowns (eight). The former Michigan State star was a league winner for fantasy players, averaging 17 fantasy points per game over his final four regular-season contests.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

Many in the fantasy football community labeled Skyy Moore a breakout candidate heading into the 2023 season. However, it was the rookie that became a go-to target for Patrick Mahomes. Rice was the WR27 for the year, averaging 10.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He started the season slowly, averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game over the first 11 weeks. The Chiefs didn’t put much on his plate early on but realized he was a star by midseason.

Kansas City turned Rice into a full-time player starting in Week 12. The rookie was the WR6 from Week 12 through Week 17, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game, posting a higher average than several big-name wide receivers, including Brandon Aiyuk and Davante Adams. Despite being on a snap count to start the year, Rice had 102 targets as a rookie. Yet, he had only three drops during the regular season and playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice only had three dropped passes on 131 targets in his rookie year including playoffs.

Regular Season:

• 79 Catches
• 938 Yards
• 77.5 % Catch Rate
• 7 TD pic.twitter.com/Vo7qc0Jx4t

— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) February 25, 2024

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