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Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for tennis and soccer, respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season, which means it's time to sharpen our skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today, I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 7:00 p.m. EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools, including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected], via Twitter/X @df_solutions, or in our premium Slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/29/24
HAPPY LEAP YEAR DAY!!! The 2023-2024 season is approaching its crucial stages with the NHL trade deadline in a week. Who will be buyers and who will be sellers as the race to the Stanley Cup goes full throttle?
Tonight we have a 12-game slate and four teams playing on a back-to-back: Ottawa, Washington, Dallas, and Los Angeles. The currently live top-three highest implied team totals are: Toronto with 4.1, Carolina with 4.1, and Florida with 3.9. I will do my best to guide you through this 12-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the NHL news feeds for the latest player status and injury news.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Thatcher Demko - DK $8K || FD $8.7K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Look! The Los Angeles Kings are on yet another slate and of course, the opposing goalie is going to be highlighted once more. Opposing goalies in six of the last eight games have now maintained or surpassed value. In Demko’s last five starts, he has a 1-3-1 record with a 3.25 Goals Against Average and a 0.890 Save Percentage. He also has a -0.02 Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 in his last 10 games.
Demko is expected to have better numbers and would if his team would play at a league-average level or better, but they have not. The Kings continue to sit in the top 10 or better in Shots For Per 60 and the bottom three or worse in Goals For Per 60 and they are the top value team in Shots Per Goal Per 60 because of those stats. Demko is not the cheapest goalie on the slate, but he is in the top 10 in value on DraftKings tonight at the goalie position.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP):
- Jarry (DK $7.6K || FD $7.2K)
- Luukkonen (DK $7.3K || FD $7.7K)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Aleksander Barkov - DK $7.1K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Barkov has been struggling with point production in his most recent five games, posting one goal, one assist, 14 shots, and five blocked shots. In Per 60 stats, in the last 10 games, excluding splits, the Montreal Canadiens are in the bottom 10 in Scoring Chances Against, High Danger Chances Against, and Goals Against.
Expected starter Sam Montembeault is also the third-worst goalie in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 in the last 10 games for all goalies playing 120 minutes or more. Can Barkov and the Panthers finally break their goal funk in a prime matchup?
Max Domi - DK $3.2K || FD $4.2K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Outside of the aforementioned Sam Montembeault of the Montreal Canadiens, expected starter Karel Vejmelka is the worst goalie on the slate. To put things in comparison, Montembeault has a -0.92 Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 and Vejmelka has a -1.6.
In Per 60 stats, in the last 10 games, excluding splits, the Coyotes are in the bottom 10 in both Shots Against and Scoring Chances Against and they are the third-worst in Goals Against. On the other end of the ice is center Max Domi. Throughout Domi’s last five appearances, he has two goals, one assist, 16 shots, and six blocked shots. This has all come since his promotion to the second line. In one of the best matchups of the slate, Domi is expected to produce at least two points.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- MacKinnon (DK $10.3K || FD $10.9K)
- Drury (DK $3K || FD $3.8K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Matt Boldy - DK $6.2K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Nashville Predators
There may be more than just one set of fireworks in this match. In what is expected to be a back-and-forth meeting between inner-division rivals, this game has a shootout all over it. In the last 10 away games, the Nashville Predators are getting outscored 16 to 24.
In Per 60 stats, in their last 10 games, excluding splits, they are in the bottom five in all metrics against. This bodes well for winger Matt Boldy, who has four goals, three assists, 22 shots, and two blocked shots throughout his last five games. Boldly is expected to register at least a point in tonight’s matchup.
Artturi Lehkonen - DK $5.1K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Lehkonen has finally been moved back to the top line, after a short stint, following his return from injury. In the two games since his reunion with linemate Nathan MacKinnon, Lehkonen has two goals, one assist, four shots, and one blocked shot. In his five games prior, he had four goals, three assists, nine shots, and two blocked shots.
Again, that production came without playing even strength minutes with MacKinnon. Chicago is being outscored 14 to 23 in their last 10 away games. Furthermore, in Per 60 stats (excluding splits) in their last 10 games, Chicago is the fourth-worst in both Shots Against and High Danger Chances Against and they are the fifth-worst in Scoring Chances Against. If not for goaltending, they would be much worse. Lehkonen is fully expected to produce at a minimum of two points and three shots tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Bertuzzi (DK $3.8K || FD $4.4K)
- Leason (DK $2.5K || FD $3.3K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Brady Skjei - DK $4.6K || FD $5.6K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Unfortunately, Skjei doesn’t offer as good of a floor as he should from peripherals and his point production is not at a level to make up for the lack of peripherals. Despite all of this, he is getting highlighted due to his prime matchup. The Blue Jackets are coming off a big 4-1 loss at the Big Apple last night.
They are also expected to roll out Daniil Tarasov in net for tonight’s matchup. All signs point to Skjei having a good performance and breaking the rut he is in. Over his last five appearances, he has one assist, 10 shots, and seven blocked shots.
Aaron Ekblad - DK $4K || FD $4.8K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Despite the hype around Ekblad when he received “Exceptional Status” in the Ontario Hockey League, where he was drafted by the Barrie Colts and then eventually taken first overall by the Florida Panthers, he has not lived up to it as a whole. In some aspects of his game, he is an elite defenseman; however, his point production is nowhere where it needs to be.
In his last five outings, he has one goal, nine shots, and nine blocked shots. Luckily, tonight he gets a home matchup against the Montreal Canadiens, who are being outscored 22 to 28 in their last 10 away games. As mentioned earlier, expected Sam Montembeault is nowhere near his top level right now, sliding in as the third-worst goalie in the last 10 games. Ekblad will have every opportunity to produce both peripherals and points tonight at both even strength and the man advantage.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Brodin (DK $4.9K || FD $5.7K)
- McDonagh (DK $3.6K || FD $4.1K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- TOR1
- CAR1
- FLA1
- COL1
- ANA1
- BUF1
NHL DFS Stacks of the Day
Brandon's Stack
- FLA: Verhaeghe-Barkov-Reinhart
Chalk Stack
- COL: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Sneaky Stack
- CAR: Bunting-Drury-Necas
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
