Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2024 Mexico Open

Hideki Matsuyama finished inside the top-10 for the first time since the Players Championship, which was 11 months ago, winning the Genesis Invitational by gaining 10 strokes chipping and putting, while ranking outside the top-15 on approach and off the tee. He ended the week at -17 and shot -9 in round four, gaining half his strokes to par in the final round. As somebody who is a big advocate that ball striking and iron play remains king, with Hideki's win really tough to predict as short game, particularly HIS putting, is so volatile.

Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay entered the final round playing together in final group and recording the two worst rounds of those that finished inside the top-10. Despite their lack luster Sunday performance, along with Jason Day who tied Xander for the 2nd worst round in the top-10, they were the only three golfers inside the top-20 in OWGR to finish better than a six-way tie for 10th. Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa and company all failed to provide us with solid results.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver" all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Recap of Last Week

We have clawed our way back from the disaster that was the Farmers Insurance Open, where we lost all $100 that week, not winning a single bet. In the three weeks since, despite not hitting a winner, we have returned $100+ to get us back to where we were before the Torrey Tragedy. The chalky placement bets really let us down last week, along with Scottie Scheffler in the outright market, having his worst approach week since the Tour Championship in August of last year. Wyndham Clark doubled his last hole to miss the cut and nuke our heavy investment in his T30 market.

What saved our bacon was the Farewell Fiver that we are hitting once a month at roughly 20-1 odds. Last week Adam Scott played atrociously in R1 and tied Taylor Montgomery who went on to miss the cut, halving our return but still profiting $52 off our 3-ball parlays. Really enjoying that bet as the signature bet for the Farewell Fiver. We are going to hit a winner here soon!

Outrights ($10)

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Because we have a Tony Finau future (I will be honest and own up to neglecting to post this in the article under a futures section). I will be sure to do that if we find any other futures for the majors. We

Tony Finau $7.02 (18-1 Bet365)

We will start off with the bad. This is a delightful number to have got on Finau, but to be honest with you, I am not sure I would have placed a wager on him this week at 18-1, were that available. He had just finished T4 at the Hero World Challenge and seemed to have full control of all areas of his game. He has since had a total meltdown on the greens, with his putter having lost at least -2.8 strokes in all of us his last three starts. Now, they all came on Poa greens, which he has had a love-hate relationship on in the past. Pass Pallum greens seem to treat him much better.

He has played in the only two instances of this event and finished runner up to Rahm in 2022 losing -2 strokes putting and then beat Rahm in 2023, gaining 4 strokes putting. One thing about Finau at this venue, is that his T2G game is undeniable. He will likely continue to ball strike this course to death, especially with the way he has been hitting his irons the last little while. He has also "taken the lid off" his driver, adding about 7 or so extra yards to his drive. He has had this distance in his back pocket for ever, but simply refused to use it. Now that he is, he suits this course off the tee even more than in the past. We can only hope that the putter bounces back to its past performance here, as it is immensely difficult to win a tournament without the help of a putter.

Jake Knapp $1.47 at 45-1 (Bet365)

Jake Knapp is averaging 183 mph ball speed this year. He has only four golfers in this field ahead of him in that department. He had a T3 at Torrey which is a very similar kind of setup when thinking about the importance of distance off the tee and the ability to hit greens with long irons where he did really well, gaining and average of +2.1 strokes ball striking. He is also not afraid to put himself in the mix, as he finished inside the top-10 in 43% of his starts on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. When golfers have this kind of power, sometimes their short game tends to be a liability to their game, but Knapp has been really solid in that department too, gaining strokes on and around the greens in his three cuts he has made this year. Don't Knapp on Jake this week!

Jhonattan Vegas +6500 $1.04 (Bet365)

Vegas is capable of ball striking the dimples off his Titleist Pro V1x, which we got a glimpse of when he finished T22 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open two weeks ago. He finally managed to only lose -2 strokes chipping and putting over the four rounds at TPC Scottsdale. It's typically his Kryptonite and almost makes him the more jacked version of Tony Finau, but with the touch of the Texas Chainsaw Killer around the greens. Let's put the chainsaw away this week and adopt more of a Dexter-like manner when getting the ball in the whole from close. Whether it takes injecting his hands with horse tranquilizer or wrapping his wedges and putter in Cling Wrap, it's going to take a minor miracle to see him gain strokes in that department. However, at 65-1 in this kind of field, is a price that we are willing to pay to see him slice and dice it up on the greens on route to a Mexico Open victory.

Chan Kim +14000 $0.47 (Bet365)

Chan Kim managed to get his PGA Tour card by winning back-to-back KFT tournaments. He had three missed cuts and a T66 in his previous four starts and closed at .... 140-1 that week. His closing odds are the same as his first win, but his form is not. He has a T14 at the AMEX along with two missed cuts in his three PGA starts so far. Kim has been steady on the ball striking front, with his short game doing him in on the MCs. Taking a look at Kim's profile from the KFT season in 2023, his best scoring difficulty was easy courses, winning his two tournaments at -20 and -28. The wind looks extremely calm in Mexico, as we are playing this event a few months earlier than the prior two editions. If he can lean back into that mindset again and dominate the easy conditions, we will have our guy looking really good to win it this week at 140-1.

Placings ($67)

Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based off the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10, but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet?

The yellow columns are the dollars lost or won in the last 12 months, white column being the return on investment % (profit (loss)/investment), and the green column being the rate at which a golfer finishes in each respective position tier.

Matchups ($18)

$18 to win $15. Cameron Champ is getting a lot of respect for how he has played here in the past. He has missed four straight cuts heading into this week and his approach play is absolute shambles. I understand there is a chance he finds his game at a course he has played well at in the past, but the ball striking numbers were much better leading into those weeks than they currently are. Also, Mark Hubbard is playing some solid golf, gaining on approach in all five of his starts, making the cut in all five of them.

The Farewell Fiver ($5)

Round 1 3-ball Parlay $5 to win $103.89 (DraftKings)

Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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