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Justin looks at the first six seasons of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes' careers. Which quarterback had the better beginning to his NFL career?
Patrick Mahomes is a Super Bowl champion...again. Mahomes led the Chiefs to their third title in the last five seasons on Sunday night. It was the team's fourth Super Bowl appearance in that span.
The only Super Bowl loss for Mahomes came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. That Bucs team was quarterbacked by Tom Brady, who is widely regarded as the GOAT.
Mahomes success has prompted a lot of talk about where he's at in his career right now vs. where Brady was at the same point. Ignoring everything Brady did after his sixth season as a starter, let's compare the two players and their resumes.
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Tom Brady's First Six Seasons
Tom Brady became a starting quarterback during the 2001 NFL season. Over the first six seasons of his NFL career, Brady started 94 regular season games, going 70-24 in those games. He completed 61.9% of his pass attempts for 21,558 yards with 147 touchdowns and 78 interceptions. Brady led the NFL in touchdown passes in 2002 and passing yards in 2005.
A rookie named Tom Brady came off the bench for his first NFL regular-season appearance, a 34-9 loss at Detroit, 22 years ago today.
He finished 1-of-3 for six yards, completing his first career pass to Rod Rutledge.
The rest is history.pic.twitter.com/YfmZgLyAnn
— Only In Boston (@OnlyInBOS) November 23, 2022
As far as postseason success, Brady and the Patriots missed the playoffs in 2002, but won the Super Bowl in the 2001, 2003, and 2004 seasons, giving Brady three Super Bowl rings in the first four years of his NFL career. Brady was named Super Bowl MVP twice.
Patrick Mahomes' First Six Seasons
Patrick Mahomes has started 95 regular season games over the last six seasons, going 73-22 in those games. He completed 66.5% of his pass attempts for 28,140 yards with 219 touchdowns and 62 interceptions. Mahomes has led the NFL in touchdown passes twice and yards once. He has won two MVP awards.
#SBLVIII MVP @PatrickMahomes at @Disneyland! 🎉 pic.twitter.com/LiMVRXXYwr
— NFL (@NFL) February 13, 2024
As far as postseason success, Mahomes has made it to the AFC Championship Game in every season as a starter. He's won three Super Bowl rings and was named Super Bowl MVP in all three of those victories. He most recently led an overtime comeback to win this season's Super Bowl.
Who Had The Better Start To His Career?
There are numerous factors that one can use to compare Brady and Mahomes at this stage in their respective careers, and each factor can produce a different answer about who has played better.
If we examined this from a statistical perspective, Mahomes pretty clearly wins out. He's had more yards and touchdowns and fewer interceptions while completing a larger percentage of his passes than Brady did. On paper, it's clear which had the better statistical performance.
However, it isn't quite as simple as that. Quarterbacks are expected to throw more now, and the NFL has made rules that make it easier on the quarterback. The league average for completion percentage in 2023 was 64.5%. If we go back to Brady's 2001 season, the league average was 59.0%. Both players have completed passes at a rate that's a few percentage points higher than the NFL average.
I’m no longer entertaining Patrick Mahomes debates against current quarterbacks in the league. The only two names that should be mentioned with him are Tom Brady and Joe Montana.
— Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels) February 13, 2024
League trends don't necessarily explain the touchdown disparity, though. The league average for touchdown passes was 20.5 in 2001 and was 23.6 in 2023, so there's an increase there, but not quite as dramatic of one as the completion percentage increase. Brady never threw for more than 28 touchdowns in his first six seasons, while Mahomes never threw under 26 and had four seasons with 37 or more touchdowns. It's clear that his touchdown passing can't be discounted as an era thing. He has the advantage there.
Then comes winning football games. Sure, wins aren't a quarterback stat, but it's also impossible to talk about legacy without talking about big-game performance. I'm not necessarily interested in comparing regular season wins because so much goes into that, but the fact that Mahomes has never not made the AFC Championship Game and already has four Super Bowl appearances can't be ignored. Sure, it's a team game, but Mahomes has put the team on his back in the postseason.
Brady did too, of course. Both quarterbacks won three Super Bowls in a six-year span and while you can give them varying degrees of credit for that, you have to applaud both guys for their performance.
Still, the "winning" category seems to lean in Mahomes' direction as well. Sure, he's lost a Super Bowl, which Brady didn't do until later in his career, but it's hard to discount the fact that Mahomes only lost more Super Bowls than Brady because he played in more. (Of course, this is ignoring that it was Brady who defeated Mahomes in that Super Bowl. Remember: we're ignoring the rest of Brady's career in this comparison.)
If we're talking exclusively about the first six years of their NFL careers, I simply have to give the edge to Patrick Mahomes here. With that said, it's close. Both quarterbacks had impressive beginnings to their careers, and giving Mahomes the nod here doesn't mean he's on the path to replace the GOAT.
It matters where Mahomes goes from here. Brady's seventh season saw him throw a career-high 50 touchdowns and he led the league in touchdowns, yards, and completion percentage. He took the Patriots to an undefeated regular season record and lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl. Brady didn't win another Super Bowl until his 14th season as a starter, but he went on to have a late-career renaissance in which he won four rings from Year 14 onward.
Can Mahomes equal that, or even better it? Only time will tell. But for now, Patrick Mahomes has had a slightly better start to his career than Tom Brady had to his. If he's eventually going to challenge him for GOAT status, then he's definitely doing the things he needs to do.
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