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Welcome to the weekend, RotoBallers. We have a solid seven-game slate on tap in the NBA tonight, and it's packed with value following the trade deadline. The Rockets-Hawks, Suns-Warriors, and Pacers-Knicks games project out as the top matchups to target in my K-Grade model (shown below), but there are going to be options in the other four games, particularly the 76ers-Wizards showdown.
The key to being successful in NBA DFS comes down to making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always really important to have a game plan and the best players and spots circled first before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and also gain access to our RotoBaller Premium Discord where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate up until lineups lock!
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 2/10/24. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our awesome NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 PM EST on FanDuel and DraftKings.
I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace, and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
Today's NBA DFS K-Grades
Today's NBA DFS Core Plays
Let's first take a look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.
It's a bit of an anomaly of a slate with the lack of high-ceiling pieces (Doncic, Giannis, Jokic) present. We have Donovan Mitchell in a prime matchup against a Raptors team that's allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game over their last seven games. Jalen Brunson is in a pace-up spot against the Pacers, but he's questionable to play with a lingering ankle sprain. Trae Young almost hit 60 DK points last night in the absence of Dejounte Murray, but I'm only interested in him if DJM sits out again.
The Rockets-Hawks game is the top game to target on this slate, so of course I'm interested in Alperen Sengun. I'll get to a few value options from this game as well, but it's just Sengun and Young (if Murray sits again) at the top of the player pool. The Suns-Warriors game is also an elite one to target tonight, but I'm only interested in Bradley Beal as far as the higher-priced options go.
This feels like a situation where we'll want the news to break regarding the key players here (Brunson, Murray, Maxey) before taking any stands. I might be more inclined to select one of Mitchell/Sengun and get to as much mid-tier and cheap value as possible tonight because there is more to like from those salary ranges on this slate.
Top Core Plays:
- Donovan Mitchell, CLE vs. TOR – PG/SG ($9,900 DK; $10,300 FD)
- Alperen Sengun, HOU vs. ATL – C ($9,200 DK; $9,000 FD)
- Bradley Beal, PHX vs. GSW – PG/SG ($7,300 DK; $8,000 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Value Plays
Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.
Amen Thompson is popping up as the best value on the slate again. He's up to $6,000 now after being $3,900 on 2/2, but it's warranted as he has outputs of 38.75 and 44.25 DK points over his last four games. He got 34 and 32 minutes of playing time over the last two games, so he's a locked-in value option in the best game environment on the slate tonight. Aaron Holiday put up 25.75 DK points over 31 minutes last game, and he makes for an intriguing cheap pivot off Thompson as Cam Whitmore's absence opens up a higher chance at a ceiling game for him.
The newly-minuted 76ers also look great at their prices and in an extremely forgiving matchup against the Wizards. Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne crushed value in their team debuts last night, and they haven't been priced up for their roles in Philly. Tyrese Maxey, De'Anthony Melton, and Nicolas Batum are the names to watch here. If they all sit out again, get to ALL of the Hield and Payne exposure.
There's a smattering of other value pieces on the board here, but the highlights are the Rockets and Sixers. Tyus Jones and Kyle Kuzma are intriguing options from the Wizards, though. The Sixers have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game over their last seven games, and the matchup holds the highest projected pace on the slate. I don't love the ceiling's on either player, but they're too cheap and in a great spot to exceed their median projections.
Top Value Plays:
- Amen Thompson, HOU vs. ATL - PG/SG ($6,000 DK; $7,300 FD)
- Buddy Hield, PHI vs. WSH - SG/SF ($5,000 DK; $5,800 FD)
- Cameron Payne, PHI vs. WSH - PG ($4,000 DK; $4,600 FD)
- Aaron Holiday, HOU vs. ATL - PG ($3,400 DK; $4,000 FD)
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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard
The Amen Thompson Show continues. He failed to hit value in his last game with just 24.25 DK points as he shot just five times and finished with six turnovers. However, he played 32 minutes after seeing 34 minutes the game prior. That's what we like to see, especially out of a still-underpriced guard in the best PG matchup on the slate. The Hawks are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing PGs over their last seven games, and the defense is even more vulnerable if Dejounte Murray sits out again.
Top PG Options:
- Amen Thompson @ ATL ($6,000 DK; $7,300 FD)
- Cameron Payne @ WSH ($4,000 DK; $4,600 FD)
- Bradley Beal @ GSW ($7,300 DK; $8,000 FD)
- Aaron Holiday @ATL ($3,400 DK; $4,000 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard
As detailed in the "Core Plays" section, Donovan Mitchell is my favorite spend-up at the position, though it's somewhat by default. He projects to score the most fantasy points on the slate against a Raptors team that's allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game over their last seven games. He needs 49.5 DK points to hit 5x value here, and he has exceeded that mark in six of his last eight contests.
Thompson, Hield, and Beal have already been covered as top plays that qualify at SG, but Josh Hart is another player to highlight. He's not exactly cheap anymore, but he's getting all the minutes he can handle and just exploded for 60.5 DK points last game as Jalen Brunson was inactive. If Brunson sits again, Hart becomes a priority play with his projected uptick in usage and production.
Top SG Options:
- Donovan Mitchell @ TOR ($9,900 DK; $10,300 FD)
- Amen Thompson @ ATL ($6,000 DK; $7,300 FD)
- Buddy Hield @ WSH ($5,000 DK; $5,800 FD)
- Josh Hart vs. IND ($7,000 DK; $7,300 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward
We've already covered the two players to prioritize at this position in Hield and Hart. The next options from a FPTS/$ perspective are either too expensive for my tastes or in poor game environments that I'd rather stay away from. Depending on how injury situations shake out, Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert, and Bilal Coulibaly are potential options from the Wizards. They went off for 49.25, 45, 40.5 DK points against the Celtics last night, respectively.
Top SF Options:
- Buddy Hield @ WSH ($5,000 DK; $5,800 FD)
- Josh Hart vs. IND ($7,000 DK; $7,300 FD)
- Corey Kispert vs. PHI ($4,800 DK; $5,500 FD) prefer on DraftKings
- Deni Avdija vs. PHI ($6,100 DK; $6,000 FD) prefer on DraftKings
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward
Things continue to look a little dicey as we move to the power forward position. Kyle Kuzma is the preferred play here, even though he was seemingly the only Wizards player to not smash value last night as he put up 31 DK points over 37 minutes. He's going to be able to do whatever he wants against this Embiid-less frontcourt, and I see him re-asserting himself as the alpha of this team tonight.
Jalen Johnson is worth taking shots on as well. He isn't the most consistent player in the league, but his floor rarely kills your lineup and he puts up ceiling games more often than most realize. To that point, he has exceeded 51 DK points in two of his last four games. The Rockets typically limit production to PFs, but they're allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position over their last seven contests.
Top PF Options:
- Kyle Kuzma vs. PHI ($7,500 DK; $8,200 FD)
- Jalen Johnson vs. HOU ($7,400 DK; $8,300 FD) prefer on DraftKings
- Draymond Green vs. PHX ($6,000 DK; $7,000 FD) prefer Jonathan Kuminga on FanDuel
- Saddiq Bey vs. HOU ($6,000 DK; $6,300 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center
It's Alperen Sengun, and then everyone else at center tonight. Sengun struggled and only played 21 minutes last night against the Raptors, but his size is going to be needed against Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu tonight. He's the only center on the slate who's capable of putting up 50-60+ DK points, and that's an extremely valuable piece to have heavy exposure to in lineups tonight. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position this season.
Jarrett Allen just hasn't been putting up the lofty numbers we're looking for at his price tag, so I'm out on him with Kuzma just $200 more and in a much better matchup. Paul Reed, Myles Turner, and Wendell Carter Jr. all project as solid enough options, but my focus is going to be solely on fitting Sengun into my lineups tonight.
Top C Options:
- Alperen Sengun @ ATL ($9,200 DK; $9,000 FD)
- Kyle Kuzma vs. PHI ($7,500 DK; $8,200 FD)
- Paul Reed @ WSH ($5,900 DK; $6,500 FD) prefer on DraftKings
- Myles Turner @ NYK ($6,000 DK; $6,800 FD) prefer on DraftKings
- Nick Richards vs. MEM ($5,800 FD) FanDuel only
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stacks
- Houston @ Atlanta (242.5 total)
- Philadelphia @ Washington (237 total)
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
- We still can't be getting to Tyrese Haliburton, at least until we know his minutes restriction has been lifted. He hasn't played 30 minutes in a game since 1/19.
- The fairly priced high-salary guys. Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, Scottie Barnes, Donte DiVincenzo, and Pascal Siakam are all priced how they should be, which means I'm not going to be getting to them with the underpriced studs we have available.
- Jarrett Allen. There isn't much to like at center aside from Sengun tonight, but the Raptors defend the position well and Allen hasn't given us a reason to think a ceiling game is imminent.
My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play on the slate: Donovan Mitchell
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Amen Thompson
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: Alperen Sengun / Aaron Holiday (if Whitemore sits)
- My favorite value play: Buddy Hield
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