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Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Super Bowl LVIII: 49ers vs. Chiefs.
Our Sleeper DFS prop picks finished 3-2 on Conference Championship weekend, bringing our playoff record to 18-8 and our overall prop picks record to 124-86 this season. We’ll look to close the 2023 season strong with our top prop picks for the big game.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for Super Bowl LVIII on Sleeper DFS.
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Super Bowl LVIII DFS Prop Picks
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
A key to Mahomes’ playoff success over his six years as a starter has been his ability to take care of the football. He has only thrown a pick in four of his 17 career playoff games and has zero interceptions over his last six postseason contests.
Mahomes tied for the fourth-most interceptions thrown this year as he struggled with a mixed bag of talent at receiver. Seven of his 14 picks were targets to Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman Jr., Skyy Moore, and Justyn Ross, receivers who have all taken a back seat over the second half of the season and will not see much playing time on Sunday.
Another proponent of his recent passing efficiency has been his preference for short and over-the-middle passes to top targets Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, which contributed to Mahomes finishing with the lowest yards per attempt of his career this year (7.0). Look for Mahomes to continue this trend of safe, shorter passes to his trusted weapons in his fourth Super Bowl on Sunday.
.@FTNData charting listed Patrick Mahomes with 21 "interception-worthy throws" in the regular season.
In the playoffs, he has zero.
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) February 1, 2024
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards
Aiyuk’s receiving prop has dipped since opening and is showing considerable value at the moment -- if his prop closes where it currently is, it will be his lowest line since Week 6 against the Browns.
Aiyuk has the top matchup of all 49ers receivers against the Chiefs, as he is projected to line up most often opposite Joshua Williams and L'Jarius Sneed. His 92.3 PFF offensive grade finished second among all receivers this season, giving a sizable advantage opposite the 73.8 and 71.0 defensive grades of Williams and Sneed, respectively.
The Chiefs deploy man coverage at a top-five rate. Aiyuk has excelled against man this season, achieving a 26.8% target rate and leading his team in targets, receptions, and fantasy points against man coverage by a substantial margin. With more betting attention directed at the 49ers' other offensive weapons thus far, don't sleep on Aiyuk this Sunday.
the 49ers gain 20+ yards on 17% of plays versus Cover-1
#1 in NFL
the Chiefs allow 20+ yards on 12% of plays in Cover-1
#26 in NFL
Brandon Aiyuk sees a 35% target share against Cover-1 & averages 20.5 yards/catchhttps://t.co/bMnLtiDC88
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 7, 2024
Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards
Valdes-Scantling and fellow receiver Justin Watson solidified their standing as the field-stretching third and fourth receiving options for the Chiefs over the second half of the season, and both are showing value on their receiving overs for Super Bowl Sunday.
Valdes-Scantling has been particularly hot in the playoffs, tallying 100 total receiving yards over his last two games while significantly out-snapping Watson over that span (92 to 58). MVS has also averaged 66.6 receiving yards in five career games against San Francisco, including a three-catch, 111-yard performance in his most recent game against them last season.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool gives this prop an 18.5% edge, with a Sharp App projected line of 27.5 receiving yards. PFF is in line with this pick as well, giving it a 67.5% likelihood of going over.
Other Recommendations:
- Patrick Mahomes UNDER 22.4 fantasy points
- Isiah Pacheco OVER 66.5 rushing yards
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