RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The WM Phoenix Open

10 months ago by Spencer Aguiar

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One and Done Selections - The WM Phoenix Open

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Joe Idone, Matt Miller, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Justin Thomas

Alternate - Akshay Bhatia

Sometimes the choices just make themselves, and whether that’s right or wrong, I’m not going to fight it this week. After an abysmal 2023, JT has stormed out of the gates in 2024 with rejuvenated ball striking leading to a T3 at the AmEx and a T6 last week in a rain-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

In addition to the positive form momentum, Thomas brings an elite track record at TPC Scottsdale into this week’s WM Phoenix Open, an event where he’s recorded three top-four finishes since 2019. Winning on the PGA Tour is never easy - JT’s 2023 is proof of that - but I think there’s a good chance that won of the most prolific winners of his generation will get back on the board this week.

Yearly Earnings - $240,207
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4

Joe Idone - Sam Burns

Alternate -

Sam Burns has been on a remarkably consistent run of late and I believe that culminates in a win this week at the WM Phoenix Open. It is clear that he's worked hard on tightening up his iron play which was inconsistent in the past and it has paid dividends early in the year. He should have won 3 weeks ago at The Amex when it appeared he was in complete control with one two holes remaining. I love the fact that he can really lean into his aggressiveness and attack the three par 5's this week and even go after the green on the par-4 17th hole down the stretch.

He is primed to capitalize on his form and his win equity rate is often undervalued. I'm using up my pick on Mr. Burns this week to come through for me in the desert. Good luck and enjoy the best viewing experience in professional golf!

Yearly Earnings -$817,627
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4

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Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley gets to the window. @RotoBaller

4-0-1 in-tournament H2Hs this week
9-1-1 on the season. https://t.co/bGvwKIWIBu pic.twitter.com/se5s4mWjPi
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) January 16, 2022

Spencer Aguiar - Corey Conners

Alternate - Hideki Matsuyama

There is a reason Scheffler, Thomas and Homa carry most of the win equity when you run your numbers, but I just don't find there to be enough money up for grabs to want to use any of the favorites.

Instead, I will go with Corey Conners, a golfer who has a particular skill set that possesses a much higher ceiling to win at specific venues than others. It isn't a fluke why the Valero Texas Open has been the only location for his two wins, although as I have talked about a few times this week, there were some comp returns I got from both that course and Austin Country Club when trying to figure out why my model liked Conners as much as it did.

The wet conditions around the track should help him hit a few more greens in regulation, preventing him from having to scramble quite as much. Shoot for the upside on Conners at low ownership.

Yearly Earnings - $798,332
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/4

Matt Miller - Adam Scott

This week I am taking Adam Scott for my One and Done. Adam Scott finished 20th at Pebble Beach last week and looked like he had some momentum heading into Sunday had they played. He gained 4.2 strokes tee to green and is now heading to a course where T2G play is essential. Although he hasn't played a ton in Scottsdale, he did finish 39th in 2022, despite losing strokes off the tee.

We haven't seen much of Adam Scott on the PGA Tour in 2024, but Scott has quietly been playing and playing well. His T20 finish at Pebble was his worst finish in his last five starts. The other four include a T7 in Dubai, T4 at the Australian Open, 6th at the Australian PGA and a T5 in Bermuda. Adam Scott's game is actually in a very good place and I wasn't turned off at all by his performance last weekend. If Scott can continue with the ball striking from last weekend, I expect that he will be in the mix over the weekend.

Yearly Earnings - $419,247
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4

Byron Lindeque - Sam Burns

Tom Kim had a middling finish of T31 last week, not really moving the needle for us all that much. Who knows what an additional round of golf could have done to his finishing position, sitting three strokes back of T14.

We are going to deploy the fifth favorite on the DK odds board as we believe Sam Burns stands as good a chance of winning this event as JT and Scheff, in my not so humble opinion. He was two holes away from winning the AMEX which included a course record tying round on Friday. He finished 10th at Pebble Beach last week and was looking to surge up the leaderboard had Sunday commenced.

We also get the T6 he had at this event last year to add to his recipe for success. The way he can get hot with his irons and putter makes him a candidate to win just about any tournament when his driver gets into that groove too. Six of his last seven starts have gained him strokes off the tee, making our one and done selection the perfect combination of peaking power and precision to produce a potion that will ooze all over TPC Scottsdale, leaving the other 131 golfers with 1st degree Sam Burns!

Yearly Earnings - $159,725
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4

Mia The Model - Byeong Hun An

Alternate - Adam Scott

Byron T20

TeeOff T20

Aggregated Results

***The top two selections are taken as the picks.

Randomization:

Let us know what you think of her chances this week!

Yearly Earnings -$942,730
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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