RADIO
Over the years, ADP has become one of the most important aspects of having successful fantasy baseball drafts. I view ADP similarly to rostership percentage in DFS. You can differentiate yourself if you know when to eat the chalk or play contrarian. With ADP, if you know what players are overvalued and undervalued by the public, we can exploit that.
We will start a journey with this article today and continue it over the next few weeks, and I am very excited about it. Look on X for a poll for Round 2 of our ADP Showdown to vote on which two players you would like for our second showdown of the year.
Today, in our first edition of ADP Showdown, we have a matchup between two similar players entering their second season in the MLB. These two players are alike in age, prototype, and ADP. We aim to determine which player is the better pick in 2024 drafts.
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Gunnar Henderson vs. Elly De La Cruz
Our first season battle is between two up-and-coming shortstops from the 2023 rookie class. Both former top prospects in the MLB come into this season with all the expectations you can imagine. One has already answered the bell with Gunnar Henderson winning the AL Rookie of the Year last season, and one in Elly De La Cruz, who has all the upside in the world but struggled in his rookie season. Who will win our first ADP showdown of the 2024 season? Let's find out.
2023 Season
Henderson: 622 PA, .255/.325/.489, 28 HR, 82 RBI, 100 R, 10 SB
De La Cruz: 427 PA, .235/.300/.410, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 67 R, 35 SB
Looking at the lines above, you can see why Gunnar Henderson was Rookie of the Year. His numbers were elite for his first entire season in the MLB. Henderson led all rookies with his 28 HRs and was second with 82 RBI and 100 Rs. He posted a 52.0% hard-hit rate, with an 11.4% BRL.
Henderson had about as good a rookie season as we have seen in a long time. He ran away with the Rookie of the Year award. His production at the plate is sustainable, and his ability to get on base and hit the ball hard often will give him one of the better floors at the shortstop position.
De La Cruz struggled in his first full stint of big-league action. There were many flashes, including hitting for the cycle in his 15th game as a pro. As much as he struggled, if we project his 2023 numbers into 650 at-bats, his line is pretty promising with a .235 AVG, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 102 R, and 53 SB.
Elly posted a 45.9% hard-hit rate and an 8.5% BRL. His 33.7% K% is well below league average and is one of the Achilles heels with De La Cruz. Elly had a floor season last year, but when talking about upside and a ceiling, he has as much of it as anyone in baseball.
2024 Projection (ATC)
Henderson: 616 PA, .261/.340/.477, 26 HR, 80 RBI, 91 R, 12 SB
De La Cruz: 560 PA, .250/.312/.439, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 78 R, 36 SB
When we project out the 2024 season, we see why this debate immediately becomes closer. I understand these are projections, but we are talking about the award-winning ATC projections that have been the most accurate over the last several seasons.
If De La Cruz can match Henderson's plate appearances, the HRs, RBI, and R numbers would be very similar. The SBs are where the separation begins between these two players. Cruz has a legitimate chance to hit 30 HRs this season and steal 50 SBs if all goes right. As good as Henderson is, there is not that kind of upside in him.
The interesting part here is Henderson is a plus runner. He is in the 90th percentile of sprint speed, but the speed has never translated to stolen bases. The most bags he's taken were 21 in 2022 in the minor leagues between Double-A and Triple-A.
Environment
Henderson: Camden Yards, AL East
De La Cruz: Great American Ball Park, NL Central
Regarding environments for these two players, they are both the centerpieces of their prospective franchises and players who will hit in the middle of the order. The O's were seventh-best in baseball last year with 807 runs. The Reds were ninth-best in baseball with 783.
The ballparks both lean to the side of being hitter-friendly. According to Baseball Savant, Great American Ball Park is the third-best park to hit in, and because Cruz is a switch hitter, he can exploit all parts of this stadium. Camden Yards became more of a pitcher's ballpark last year, but it is still a perfect hitting park for left-handed hitters as it ranks ninth-best in baseball for lefties to hit in.
The four teams in the AL East last season posted an average ERA of 4.04. The Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays were all top-10 in the MLB in ERA. The NL Central posted an average ERA of 4.32.
ADP
Henderson: 39.0
De La Cruz: 52.0
Now, to the most crucial aspect of this entire debate. The ADP or market value of each player.
Of course, Henderson is going higher than De La Cruz, and rightfully so. There is a much higher floor with Henderson, and in fantasy baseball, we want a floor with picks high in the draft. Our RotoBaller rankings have Henderson as the 31st-best player in drafts -- an eight-pick value from the current ADP.
De La Cruz is the wild card here, and the ADP is very hit-or-miss. He is a player that could be taken as high as pick 30 or as low as pick 60, depending on who you're drafting with. Our RotoBaller ranking has Elly ranked as the 30th-best player -- one slot ahead of Henderson and a 22-pick value of the current ADP.
Winner
Elly De La Cruz
We come down to the final decision between these two players, which is not an easy one. No one will fault you for picking Gunnar Henderson, as he is a tremendous player with value at his current ADP, but the ceiling of Elly De La Cruz will always be the deciding factor.
We are talking about a player with a 30/50 upside season that is slotted as a 22-pick value based on our rankings and projections at RotoBaller. De La Cruz can finish the season as a top-15 player, which won't surprise most in the industry.
As mentioned in another article about De La Cruz earlier in the season, when drafting him, you are trying to win a league and know the risk. The ceiling he can provide is exactly that -- a league winner.
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