Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings - Eric Cross' 2024 Draft Targets

Shiny New Toy Syndrome (SNTS) is a condition that impacts thousands of fantasy baseball managers around the world. If you or a loved one have been impacted by SNTS, please contact the fantasy baseball offices of Cross and RotoBaller today and we will unfortunately not be able to assist you as there are a plethora of exciting rookies to target in your fantasy baseball drafts this season.

In all seriousness, targeting rookies and prospects in your drafts is a tricky process to navigate correctly. For every one Ronald Acuna Jr. we have 10 Jarred Kelenic's. And yes, that pained me to write. But it's true. Rookies are often erratic and the rookie landscape is often littered with landmines that can derail a fantasy season whether due to a high draft pick or high FAAB price.

So, hopefully, these rookie rankings and notes can assist you during the draft season and steer you in the right direction whether that direction is towards or away from certain high-profile prospects.

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2024 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings

These prospect rankings are for 2024 redraft value only. These are MLB prospects to potentially make a fantasy baseball impact in 2024. 

You can also see our top fantasy baseball dynasty prospects rankings for longer-term outlooks, and our 2024 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for all league formats.

Pitcher Prospects for Fantasy Baseball

Yoshinobu is the unquestioned #1 rookie to target this year, but you're going to have to open the wallet if you want him on your fantasy teams. After a dominant career in Japan, Yamamoto has an ADP within the Top 50 overall right now and is being taken as the 11th starter off the board on average. While the upside is a Top 10 pitcher, I'm not sure I want my ace to be someone with zero MLB experience.

The only other pitcher in the top 10 above is Mason Miller. You might be wondering why after the news of him transferring to the bullpen, but that's a role much better suited for him in the long run. Miller averaged 98.6 mph on his 4-seamer in 2023 and his slider was one of the best in baseball with a .118 BAA, .147 SLG, and 47.1% whiff rate. For those two pitches, his ICR (Ideal Contact Rate) per Pitcher List was 3.5% better than the league average on the 4-seamer and 13.9% better than the league average on the slider. As long as he can stay healthy, Miller has Top 10 RP upside this season.

Right behind Miller is Shane Baz. Remember him? In general, Baz is a risky selection after having made only 10 starts combined in 2022 and missing the entire 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. However, that risk is already baked into his draft price with an ADP of 194 since January 1. But I'd like to remind everyone that Baz posted a 33.6% K-BB rate in the minors back in 2021, and both his slider and curveball had had a whiff rate above 40% in the Majors. To add, Baz's slider, curveball, and changeup all had better-than-league-average marks in ICR. If you already have a few starters you feel confident about, Baz is a fine upside play at his current ADP.

You're probably wondering why Kyle Harrison isn't higher in my rookie rankings. There's no doubt that the upside is fairly high, but I'm long been concerned by Harrison's inconsistent command and control. Sure, his walk rate was only 7.5% in seven starts with San Francisco, but it was 15.9% in the minors last year before his promotion and 12.3% for his minor league career. Given those issues along with the fact that Harrison doesn't induce many groundballs, he's one I'll be avoiding for the most part unless he falls to me in drafts.

Hitter Prospects for Fantasy Baseball

I'm aiming to try and secure as many shares of the Texas outfield duo of Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford as often as possible this draft season. Even after bursting onto the scene late last season with a combined six home runs, six steals, and a .303/.415/.574 line in 147 plate appearances between the regular season and postseason, Carter's ADP is surprisingly only 140 since January 1. There are some questions about how much power he'll ultimately provide and the strikeout rate was a bit too high in the Majors, but Carter has the upside to go 20/20 while hitting in the middle of a LOADED Texas lineup. This ADP is a steal as far as I'm concerned.

The same could be said about Langford and his 165 ADP if he's on the opening-day roster. Langford slashed a ridiculous .360/.480/.677 in 200 plate appearances after the draft with 17 doubles, 10 home runs, 12 steals, and more walks (36) than strikeouts (34). His combination of contact, approach, power, and speed gives him the upside of an early-round fantasy selection and we could realistically see him flirt with a 25/20 season if he's with Texas for the entire season.

The next three hitters represent the last of the "super elite" prospects on this list. Both Chourio and Marte have the power/speed blends to flirt with 20/20 as well this season. Marte recorded a 46.1% hard-hit rate and 91st-percentile sprint speed with Cincinnati after his promotion while hitting .316 with three home runs and six steals in 123 plate appearances. As for Chourio, I'm expecting his aggressive approach to limit the AVG to a degree, but this is a hitter who averaged 25 home runs and 36 steals per 650 plate appearances in the minors. Both are fine targets at their respective ADPs (Chourio 148, Marte 172).

The only "super elite" prospect who I'm probably not targeting this season is Holliday. While he should provide a good AVG and OBP right away given his elite hit tool and approach, I'm questioning how much power Holliday initially provides and we're still not sure he's on the opening-day roster as Baltimore's starting shortstop. If he is, then his current 219 ADP will likely rise to a range that I'm not comfortable with.

Both of the Detroit rookies are intriguing targets at their respective ADPs this season. With the news of Colt Keith's extension, his ADP will likely rise into the 250 range, but I'm okay with that. Keith will likely gain dual 2B/3B eligibility early in the season and has one of the best hit/power combinations in the minors. Parker Meadows is going closer to the 300 range and that's phenomenal value when you consider his 20/20 upside and likely spot atop Detroit's lineup.

Quick Prospects Notes

Jordan Lawlar and Junior Caminero are both top-6 prospects for me but I'm not sure either is on the opening-day roster. If they are, both would easily rank inside the top 10 here for me. Keep an eye on how spring training is shaking out for both Arizona and Tampa Bay and adjust accordingly if it looks like either will break camp with the big league team.

Reports out of Boston signal that Ceddanne Rafaela will get a decent amount of playing time in 2024, but it's hard to see that at the moment with Jarren Duran, Tyler O'Neill, Masataka Yoshida, and Wilyer Abreu also on the roster. However, if he does get regular playing time, Rafaela's speed and sneaky pull-side pop make him an intriguing target for fantasy leagues.

If you want cheap power, look to Hunter Goodman or Austin Wells. If you want cheap speed, look to Rafaela, Garrett Mitchell, or Tyler Black.

Lastly, we're likely going to see the return of the Martian sometime in the vicinity of June/July from a torn UCL. For those of you in Bestballs, DCs, or just leagues with deeper benches, I'd still be fine targeting Jasson Dominguez given his immense fantasy potential.

If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see Eric's full Top 50 rookie rankings along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.

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