Fantasy Baseball Busts Who'll Keep Junking It Up In 2024 - Outfield

One bust of a season can be enough rationale for fantasy baseball owners to steer clear of a player going forward. For others, it can open the door for a buy-low opportunity with hopes of a bounce-back return to form.

However, it’s realistic for us to understand that many players never return the same. A down year can be a fluke, or it may be indicative of a concerning trend. Predicting the new normal players is a crucial part of the draft strategy, and identifying the sunk cost of a true bust when you see one is critical.

This article explores several outfield players who busted in 2023 compared to their ADP and unfolds why their struggles are likely to continue. There may still be some fantasy value left to salvage, but none of these players should be expected to perform at a pre-2023 level.

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Hunter Renfroe, Kansas City Royals

Excluding a stunted 2020 campaign, last season represented career-worsts across the board for Hunter Renfroe. The outfielder slashed a weak .233/.297/.416 over 140 games between Cincinnati and Los Angeles stints in 2023. While Renfroe’s uninspiring batting average and on-base percentage did not significantly regress below his career averages, his middling 20-home run output made his deficiencies all the more apparent.

Interestingly, Renfroe’s 26.4% whiff rate was an improvement over his 28.7% career mark, and the same was true for his 22.8% strikeout rate (25.4% career strikeout rate). However, putting the ball in play did not translate into better production at the plate due primarily to the remarkably poor quality of contact. Renfroe generated just a 39.3% hard-hit rate, alongside an 88.3 mph average exit velocity, 5.9% barrel rate, and a 29% sweet spot rate. His power output was further undercut by a career-high 42.8% groundball rate. Renfroe’s struggles culminated in a horrible .359 xSLG, falling well short of his .445 career mark.

One variable that can be linked to Renfroe’s 2023 slump is an eroding plate discipline. Though his walk rate didn’t stray from his middling 7.6% career rate, Renfroe was swinging at more pitches than ever before last season. That includes an aggressive 50.8% swing rate, which is paired with an ugly 33.7% chase rate. The shift may have more to do with changing approaches from opposing pitchers, who threw breaking balls on 39.5% of pitches to Renfroe in 2023, the highest rate in his career -- and he generated just a .192 xBA and .314 xSLG against it.

All said, if Renfroe isn’t an above-average source of power anymore, then he’s essentially value-less in fantasy baseball. At 32 years old, he will not suddenly figure out how to hit for average, and hitters do not typically rediscover their power swings at this stage of their career. 30-home run campaigns may be a thing of the past for Renfroe.

Starling Marte, New York Mets

Across 86 games, Starling Marte produced a forgettable .248/.301/.324 slash line, including five home runs and 24 stolen bases last season. While the base running remains worthwhile, his ability to contribute elsewhere was noticeably absent. Injury undoubtedly played a role in limiting Marte; however, it is conceivable that he finally hit his wall in 2023.

Historically, Marte has been the type of player who can produce across most offensive categories. That includes a .788 OPS and 116 wRC+ for his career. Marte’s home run output has never been exceptional, though his ability to consistently hit for average and extra bases has been a reliable production source over the years. He is a .287 career hitter, while his slugging percentage amounts to a respectable .445 mark. Naturally, Marte has been a go-to fantasy contributor for several years now.

The advanced numbers suggest that Marte’s 2023 struggles are a legitimate concern. He posted many career-worst metrics, such as a .312 xwOBA, .261 xBA, and .402 xSLG, in addition to a similarly uninspired 5.6% barrel rate, 30.6% sweet spot rate, 39.5% hard-hit rate, and an 88.2 mph average exit velocity. This dip in production can also partly be attributed to his declining plate discipline. Marte generated a 37.4% chase rate last season, noticeably higher than his 34.7% career mark.

At this point, the biggest barrier to Marte bouncing back is durability. On top of missing approximately half of the 2023 campaign, Marte has failed to surpass 120 games played in any season since 2019. He had double groin surgery heading into last season, and a subsequent groin injury cut Marte’s season short last year. Whether or not he remains a base-stealing threat is a major concern going forward. Marte is on the wrong side of 35 years old now, and the regression is most likely the new normal.

Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays

At only 27 years old, Daulton Varsho is notably younger than the others on this list. Across 158 games last season, he slashed .220/.285/.389 with 20 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Despite an everyday playing role, the results were underwhelming given his 2023 ADP, and they were particularly disappointing at a deep fantasy position like the outfield.

As opposed to themes of regression with Starling Marte and Hunter Renfroe, the argument against Varsho is just that his bat is not that special to begin with. Despite an encouraging 27-home run campaign in 2022, Varsho sports a middling .715 OPS for his career. He’s capable of decent base running and power output, but Varsho’s overall portfolio amounts to a below-average offensive producer.

Further, the underlying numbers don’t suggest Varsho is likely to break out in 2024. Last season, he generated a weak .232 xBA, .301 xwOBA, .390 xSLG, 87.8 mph average exit velocity, 36.2% hard-hit rate, and a 7.1% barrel rate. That all amounts to an 85 wRC+, part of a 96 wRC+ career mark. Varsho really doesn’t do anything exceptionally well at the plate, and his .298 career on-base percentage prevents him from doing more serious damage on the basepaths.

Perhaps the most obvious reason we’ve lost enthusiasm for Varsho is his positional eligibility change. Despite being drafted as a catcher and splitting time between catcher and outfield during his tenure with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Varsho was exclusively deployed as an outfielder last season. Having now lost the catcher designation from his profile, Varsho’s 20-home run potential is not nearly as valuable to fantasy managers.

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