Wide Receiver Matchups to Target for Conference Championships: Brandon Aiyuk, Rashee Rice, Josh Reynolds, Nelson Agholor

Welcome to WR Matchups to Target for the Conference Championship Round of the 2023 NFL season. Last week’s picks stayed hot, yielding three double-multiplier finishes (two fantasy points per $1,000 in DraftKings salary).

Three games remain on this year’s NFL calendar, with Sunday’s winners facing off in Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. This week’s slate offers a few dependable cash game picks and several contrarian options for tournaments.

Each week, we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are four of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

$6,900 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel; vs. Cameron Sutton

Aiyuk had his best season as a pro this year, finishing with 1,342 receiving yards while averaging 85 yards per game during the regular season. With Deebo Samuel banged up entering Sunday’s game against the Lions, Aiyuk could be in for another team-leading performance through the air.

Last week’s game against the Buccaneers showed how vulnerable the Lions can be through the air, with Mike Evans burning Detroit for eight catches, 147 yards, and a touchdown. The Lions have allowed an average of 189 yards and 13.7 catches per game this year to opposing wideouts, including giving up at least 140 yards to a WR in five straight games.

Aiyuk ranks within the top eight receivers in yards against both zone and man coverage and boasts the top PFF matchup advantage of the week against Detroit’s secondary. Use him in all formats this week.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

$6,500 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel; vs. Kyle Hamilton

This AFC Championship matchup boasts the two best passing defenses of all 14 playoff teams, meaning receiving value will be tougher to come by for DFS. That said, you still can’t go wrong betting on the top target in Patrick Mahomes’ offense. 

Rice has been excellent for the Chiefs since breaking out against the Raiders in Week 12. He has averaged 84 receiving yards per game since then, totaling nine or more targets in six of eight games over that span.

While he will have his work cut out for him in the slot against CB Kyle Hamilton, Rice also plays outside 49% of the time and should be able to take advantage of perimeter matchups while moving around the formation on Sunday. He is a safe play for cash games this week.

Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions

$4,000 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel; vs. Deommodore Lenoir

Reynolds has been coming on of late, totaling 17 targets and 12 catches over his last three games and scoring his fifth touchdown of the season last week against the Buccaneers.

While the 49ers have a strong defense ranking fourth in DVOA, they have been susceptible through the air. Reynolds moves around the formation quite a bit, meaning he will have opportunities to avoid 49ers CB Charvarius Ward. With all five of his receiving touchdowns coming in the red zone this year, Reynolds is also a threat to score (+350 on DraftKings Sportsbook).

In a passing game script for the Lions, Reynolds is a great alternative to the chalkier household names at the top of the salary list this week.

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Nelson Agholor, Baltimore Ravens

$3,800 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel; vs. Trent McDuffie

Agholor had a lackluster 2023 campaign, finishing fifth on the team in receiving. He has been more involved in the Ravens offense of late, however, and he has a great opportunity to exceed expectations this week against the Chiefs.

Kansas City deploys man coverage at a top-five rate, which bodes well for Agholor. The 30-year-old has been the Ravens’ top receiver against man coverage, tallying a 20.5% target rate against man (versus 10.1% against zone). He has also seen increased involvement in Baltimore’s offense of late, averaging 3.75 targets and 22.3 receiving yards per game over his last four contests. 

While rookie Zay Flowers will likely continue to lead the way in volume, his struggles against man coverage this season will open the door for Agholor and the other Ravens receivers to return value in DFS this week.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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