Can James Paxton Impact The Dodgers Rotation? Fantasy Baseball Outlook

The Los Angeles Dodgers refuse to stop adding. Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernandez, Manuel Margot, you name it. They also retained outfielder Jason Heyward, relievers Joe Kelly, Daniel Hudson, and Blake Treinen, and will get middle infielder Gavin Lux back from ACL surgery.

Now you can add veteran starter James Paxton to the mix on a one-year, $11 million deal. The biggest question mark for the Dodgers was in the starting rotation, one that is without future Hall of Famer and longtime Dodger Clayton Kershaw while right-hander Walker Buehler hasn't pitched since regressing to a 4.02 ERA in 12 starts before Tommy John surgery in 2022.

However, the additions of Yamamoto and Glasnow satisfied many of those questions. Can Paxton join them and make a meaningful impact to this Dodgers rotation? What can fantasy managers expect? Let's dive in and find out!

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Can James Paxton Impact the Dodgers Rotation?

As it stands right now, Paxton lines up as the Dodgers' fifth starter behind Yamamoto, Glasnow, Bobby Miller, and Buehler. The club also has Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Ryan Yarbrough for starting pitching depth. Odds are they will need it.

Paxton pitched well for the most part before a late-season collapse, finishing with a 4.50 ERA across 19 starts and 96 innings of work. Therein lies the problem. That's now just 25 starts and 115 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season. He made 81 starts and won 38 games from 2017-2019 but has only exceeded 136 innings in a season twice in parts of 10 big-league seasons.

When healthy, he's been superb, tossing a 3.69 ERA and 18.9% K-BB% across 156 starts for his career. He posted a strikeout rate of 28.9% or better from 2017-2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery that cost him all of the 2022 season. He returned to strike out 24.6% of the batters he faced alongside a 16.5% K-BB% in 2023.

Another year removed from Tommy John surgery, the Dodgers are looking for Paxton to get back to the 24-29 start range at the back end of their rotation. If so, he's probably the best fifth starter in baseball and a boon to a Dodgers rotation that has been addressed with authority this offseason.

That's if he can stay healthy, which is the same question fantasy managers will ask themselves on draft day. He has the opportunity to win plenty of games if he can a) stay healthy and b) go at least five innings consistently. Aside from the 2017-2019 seasons, that just has not been the case with this pitcher.

The risk/reward here is about as wide as it gets with Paxton. He could come out and fire a 3.70 ERA in 26 starts while winning 10-12 games or he can make five starts and miss the rest of the year with further arm/back issues.

Given his excellent work in the first half of 2023 before understandably fading down the stretch, Paxton makes for a decent late-round target given his supporting cast and being another year removed from major elbow surgery.

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