Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - 2024 American Express

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2024 American Express at PGA West. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

The PGA Tour is officially off and running, as Grayson Murray closed out the Hawaii Swing with a sudden-death playoff win over Keegan Bradley and Benny An at the Sony Open.

With the Hawaii events now in the books, the Tour returns to the continental U.S. this week to kick off the West Coast Swing with The American Express in La Quinta, California.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

2024 American Express

As we turn the page on the Hawaiian events, we return to the mainland for the traditional kicking-off point of the PGA Tour's West Coast Swing in La Quinta, California. This event has been known by many names over the years – Bob Hope, Humana Challenge, CareerBuilder, and Desert Classic – but now seems to have found a rock-solid title sponsor in American Express, which is saying something in today's current climate of sponsorship exits from the Tour.

The AmEx – and the West Coast Swing as a whole – isn't without its quirks, as this tournament features a unique 54-hole cut Pro-Am format, as well as a three-course rotation over those first three rounds. Every player in the field will play one round at the Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club before those that survive the cut battle it out on the PGA West Stadium Course – the toughest track in the rotation – in the final round. It can be tough from a DFS perspective, as shot tracker isn't available on all three courses and rounds can stretch out for six-plus hours thanks to the pro-am format.

While the defending AmEx champ Jon Rahm won't be in attendance this week after surprisingly jumping to LIV, this field is nothing to sneeze at. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines a field that includes four of the OWGR's top 10 and is as deep as any group I can ever remember for this event. Some notables include Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau.

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The Course: Stadium Course at PGA West

Par 72 - 7,133 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Pete Dye

The AmEx features a three-course rotation that includes the TPC Stadium Course at PGA West, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Players will play one round on each course before a 54-hole cut leaves the remaining golfers to play TPC Stadium Course in the final round.

The Stadium Course is classic "desert golf" and traditionally plays much tougher than the other tracks in the rotation. Players will face a difficult closing stretch that includes a 20-foot deep bunker on Hole 16, the infamous "Alcatraz hole" at 17, and a par-4 18th that is lined with water. The course rotation makes this a volatile tournament. I'm targeting strong ball strikers who I hope will gain strokes both off the tee and on approach this week.

For lack of a better term, this event often devolves into a classic "birdie fest" with players regularly breaking the 20-under-par barrier for the week. It goes without saying that we need golfers who can rack up birdies in our lineups for the AmEx.

Recent AmEx Winners & Scoring Info

• 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
• 2022: Hudson Swafford (-22)
• 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
• 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
• 2019: Adam Long (-26)

The Horse

Patrick Cantlay

• Event Scoring Average: 67.58 (Five career starts)
• Notable Course History: T26 (2023), 9th ('22), 2nd ('21), T9 ('19)
• DraftKings Price: $10,800

The native Californian has shined in his previous stops at La Quinta and heads to this year's edition of the AmEx sporting a 67.58 career scoring average in the long-standing Tour event. Cantlay narrowly missed a win here in 2021 on the strength of a blistering final-round 61, ultimately settling for a solo second-place finish a single stroke behind Si Woo Kim. He's also notched a pair of additional top-10 finishes across his last four AmEx starts.

Most SG at the American Express since 2020 (min. 8 rounds):

Patrick Cantlay +2.63
Sungjae Im +2.26
Scottie Scheffler +2.10
Tony Finau +2.10
Will Zalatoris +2.01
--------------
Sam Burns +1.81
Tom Hoge +1.82
Chris Kirk +1.68

F*cking putting contest. pic.twitter.com/pPsPUNdF6l

— Mark Fox (@ThePluggedLie) January 15, 2024

Cantlay arrives at this year's edition with any winter rust sufficiently knocked off thanks to a solid, if unspectacular, start to the year via a T12 outing at the Sentry. He looked sharp from T2G at Kapalua, gaining 10.5 strokes, though the putter was frigid, as he lost a massive 6.1 strokes on the greens in Hawaii.

He'll need to get the putter warmed up to contend this week, but perhaps no other player on the PGA Tour enters 2024 as primed for a win as Cantlay, who trails only Scottie Scheffler among this week's entrants in SG: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, and OTT metrics over the last 50 rounds.

The Ponies

Sungjae Im

• Event Scoring Average: 67.80 (Five career starts)
• Notable Course History: T18 ('23), T11 ('22), T12 ('21), T10 ('20), T12 ('19)
• DraftKings Price: $10,100

It's no surprise that the Tour's resident grinder extraordinaire has made starts in each of the last five editions of the AmEx. The South Korean has displayed an undeniable affinity for this week's desert locale by finishing T18 or better in every AmEx start of his career.

Sungjae Im holds a one-shot lead at The American Express after a bogey-free round of 65 on Friday. https://t.co/mDoHN1r1lz

— Golf World (@GolfWorld) January 23, 2021

Im's excellence at PGA West is illustrated by his eye-opening 41.08 total strokes gained in this event since 2019, a mark that's the best in this week's field by nearly two strokes. He comes into this year's edition on the heels of a terrific outing at Kapalua that resulted in a T5 in the Sentry. Sungjae gained 6.5 strokes total and finished on the positive side of every major SG statistical category two weeks ago at Kapalua. He appears primed for another big week on this trio of courses where he's found so much consistent success in the past.

J.T. Poston

• Event Scoring Average: 69.73 (Seven career starts)
• Notable Course History: T6 ('23), T25 ('22), T7 ('19)
• DraftKings Price: $9,100

The Postman has delivered in 2024, notching top-six finishes in both legs of the Hawaii Swing. Poston gained over four strokes T2G at both the Sentry and the Sony, while also wielding a white-hot putter that led to a combined 7.5 strokes gained on the greens in Hawaii, and included a career-low round of 61 this past Sunday at Waialae.

J.T. Poston cards a career-low 61 in the final round of the Sony Open in Hawaii.

His previous career-low on TOUR was 62, four times (most recent: R1, 2022 John Deere Classic/went on to win).

— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) January 14, 2024

He returns to the mainland and an AmEx event that suits him perfectly. Poston grades out fourth in this week's field in Birdies or Better Gained (L50) and can drop the sort of low rounds that will be needed at La Quinta. The Carolina native recorded a T6 in last year's renewal and also boasts a T25 and a T7 on his AmEx CV.

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Adam Hadwin

• Event Scoring Average: 67.69 (Eight career starts)
• Notable Course History: T18 ('23), T25 ('22), T2 ('19), T3 ('18), 2nd ('17), T6 ('15)
• DraftKings Price: $8,300

Although he doesn't have an actual AmEx win on his resume, it feels correct to dub Adam Hadwin "Mr. American Express" due to just how great he's been in this event throughout his career, a track record that includes a round of 59 in 2017.

The Canadian has found a second home in La Quinta, California, and its desert golf setting. Between 2016 and 2019, Hadwin recorded a pair of runner-up finishes, as well as a T3 in the AmEx, and finished no worse than T6. While he's failed to crack the top 10 in his last three AmEx starts, Hadwin has managed top-25 finishes in each of his last two La Quinta starts while gaining nearly 32 strokes total in the event since 2019.

Best scoring average at @theamexgolf since 2018 among players in the field this week (min. 12 rounds) --

Patrick Cantlay, 67.3
Si Woo Kim, 67.6
Adam Hadwin, 67.7
Scottie Scheffler, 67.7
Sungjae Im, 67.8
Tony Finau, 67.8

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) January 15, 2024

Grayson Murray

• Event Scoring Average: 69.88 (Five career starts)
• Notable Course History: T10 ('20), T14 ('18), T12 ('17)
• DraftKings Price: $7,100

While last week's surprise Sony Open winner Grayson Murray seemingly came out of nowhere for most casual fans, many hardcore PGA grinders are familiar with the talented but troubled Murray from his previous stint on the PGA Tour.

“My story’s not finished.”

Grayson Murray opens up after securing his second TOUR win. pic.twitter.com/3SeUkteaF1

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 15, 2024

That stretch on the Tour included five AmEx starts for the 30-year-old. Murray has quietly played very well at La Quinta, racking up three finishes of T14 or better and a 69.88 scoring average in this event. It's always an interesting case study to see how a player handles success on the PGA Tour. While there's a chance that Murray comes out flat after his career-changing win last week in Hawaii, he could also carry that positive momentum into an environment where he's recorded some of his best finishes as a pro.

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